Goldman Sachs’ 2026 Gold Forecast Is $4,900—but the Rally Could Go Further

Goldman has therefore left room for prices to retest or exceed the former $5,400 objective if investor demand improves while central-bank accumulation remains strong. This is a conditional scenario, not a new official Goldman target.

The mechanism is two-sided. If prices stop rising or reverse, call options become less sensitive to the underlying price. Dealers may then reduce their hedges, while ETF redemptions, profit-taking and technical selling add further pressure. Options positioning can amplify a move; it does not guarantee its direction.

Central-bank buying supports the structural bull case—but the data is mixed

World Gold Council data shows that central banks and other official institutions bought 288.9 tonnes of gold in Q2 2026, up 62% year over year. Poland was the largest reported buyer, while China also increased its accumulation.

The timing matters: official-sector buying increased during a quarter in which gold prices were weak, suggesting that reserve diversification was not simply a reaction to short-term price momentum.

There is also an important caveat. First-half net purchases totaled about 345 tonnes, the weakest first-half result since 2022. The strong second quarter is supportive, but it is not proof that official-sector buying will continue accelerating at the same pace for the rest of the year.

ETF demand is the key swing factor

Gold ETF flows show why Goldman became more cautious. U.S. gold ETFs recorded only a modest $44 million inflow in July, following approximately $6.4 billion in sector redemptions during May and June. The figures suggest that selling pressure had begun to stabilize, but they do not yet show a durable, one-way return of Western investors.

A sustained inflow revival would make the $4,900 forecast easier to reach and could help create the conditions for a move above it. Renewed redemptions would reinforce the argument for a slower recovery or a deeper downside move.

Silver has more upside leverage—and more downside risk

Silver shares gold’s sensitivity to rates, investor flows and options positioning, but its outlook is less precise. Public forecasts are widely dispersed, and the reported $90 call-option buying relates to near-term market positioning, not a Goldman end-2026 silver target.

If silver continues rising toward the $90 strike, dealer delta-hedging could intensify the advance. If the rally stalls, those hedges can unwind and make the decline disproportionately sharp. Silver’s industrial-demand exposure also adds another source of uncertainty.

Near term, the market has recently focused on the area around $70 as a breakout or retest zone; the $90 strike is a much higher options-market reference point rather than a confirmed forecast.

Why the August 28 Jackson Hole speech matters

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver the keynote address at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on August 28, 2026. Markets will watch for any language that changes expectations for rates, real yields or the dollar.

A more hawkish signal could weigh on gold, silver, ETF demand and bullish options hedges. A less hawkish message could support precious metals by improving the outlook for investor flows and dealer buying. The speech is a catalyst, not a guaranteed directional signal—but it arrives at a point when precious-metals positioning is already highly sensitive to changes in monetary-policy expectations.

Technical levels traders are watching

Recent market reporting described gold as having reclaimed roughly $4,600 and moved back above its 200-day moving average, a constructive technical development. Holding that area would keep the path toward $4,900 open; losing it would make a return to the former $5,400 objective less credible.

The practical conclusion is straightforward: Goldman’s revised target is $4,900, supported by a durable central-bank diversification theme but constrained by a less favorable Fed and ETF backdrop. Gold can exceed that target if Western demand returns and options hedging adds fuel. Silver may offer greater upside torque, but the $90 call positioning also makes its downside risks harder to ignore.