Why Brent Crude Could Stay Between $90–$110 in 2026

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow shipping corridor connecting the Persian Gulf to global markets. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply and about a quarter of liquefied natural gas exports pass through the chokepoint.

When flows through this route are restricted or threatened:

• Millions of barrels per day can become effectively trapped in Gulf export terminals.
• Global supply tightens rapidly.
• Energy markets price in a geopolitical “risk premium.”

During the 2026 crisis, the closure and military escalation around the strait triggered what analysts describe as the largest disruption to global energy supply since the 1970s oil crisis.

Oil Prices Surged Above $100

Markets reacted quickly to the supply shock. Brent crude rose above $100 per barrel for the first time in several years, with volatility increasing as attacks and shipping disruptions spread across the Gulf.

At the peak of the early crisis period, prices briefly surged even higher as traders priced in the possibility that a large share of global oil exports might remain blocked.

This surge reflects more than immediate supply shortages. Traders are also pricing in:

• higher insurance costs for tankers
• longer shipping routes
• the possibility of recurring disruptions

These structural risks help explain why Moody’s expects elevated prices to persist even if some shipping resumes.

Shipping Disruptions Are Reshaping Trade Flows

Energy markets are beginning to adjust to what analysts describe as a “new normal” for Gulf shipping risk.

When the strait becomes unsafe or unreliable, oil producers and buyers must adapt by:

• rerouting shipments where possible
• relying more on pipelines or alternative export terminals
• sourcing crude from non‑Gulf suppliers

Experts note that even if shipping resumes fully, the geopolitical risk introduced by the crisis could permanently reshape global trade patterns and shipping strategies.

Ripple Effects for Global Supply and U.S. Exports

The disruption has effectively removed or threatened a large share of global supply moving through the Gulf. With millions of barrels at risk, buyers increasingly look to alternative suppliers outside the Hormuz corridor.

That shift strengthens the strategic role of producers whose exports do not depend on the strait—such as the United States. However, available reporting does not provide a definitive figure for how much U.S. export volumes have increased during the crisis.

What is clear is that supply diversification is becoming a priority for many importers as geopolitical risk rises.

Diplomatic Efforts to Reopen the Strait Are Stalled

Despite the economic pressure, diplomacy has struggled to deliver a breakthrough.

The United States has pushed for an international coalition aimed at restoring freedom of navigation through the strait. Yet months into the conflict that began with U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran, the channel has remained largely closed and negotiations have made limited progress.

Regional governments worry that even if talks succeed, the outcome may only partially reopen the shipping route without resolving the deeper tensions that caused the crisis.

The Bigger Picture: A Structural Oil Market Risk

The key takeaway from Moody’s warning is that oil markets are no longer dealing with a brief disruption.

Instead, the Strait of Hormuz crisis has introduced a long‑term geopolitical risk premium that could keep prices elevated for years. Persistent shipping danger, fragile diplomacy, and shifting trade flows mean global energy markets may be entering a new phase of volatility—one where oil prices remain structurally higher than before the crisis.

For now, that reality is why Brent crude hovering near $90–$110 through 2026 is increasingly seen as a realistic baseline rather than a temporary spike.