Bitcoin’s Plunge Below $60K Was Caused by Inflation Fears and a $5.4 Billion ETF Exodus, Not a 32 BTC Sale

“The main driver behind bitcoin's weakness was ETF selling after red-hot April U.S. inflation data,” Thielen stated, summarizing the direct cause-and-effect relationship the firm observed .

Strategy's 32 BTC Sale: A Psychological Blow, Not a Market Mover

In contrast to the ETF floodgates, Strategy’s sale was a statistical non-event. The firm sold just 32 Bitcoin, its first transaction of this kind since 2022, to cover dividend expenses . During this same period of alleged "profit-taking," the company was actually a net buyer, adding roughly $2 billion worth of Bitcoin to its treasury .

10x Research is explicit that pinning the drop on Strategy is a misunderstanding. The sale of a few dozen Bitcoin could not meaningfully impact a market absorbing billions of dollars in simultaneous liquidations. However, the trade was not without consequence. For a company with a cultural identity built on a "never-sell" ethos, the disclosure acted as a psychological blow at a fragile moment, momentarily shaking trader sentiment and breaking a powerful narrative .

Macro Headwinds: Geopolitics, Jobs, and the Fed's Next Move

The ETF outflows did not happen in a vacuum. A U.S.-Iran conflict escalated energy market fears, driving up oil prices and stoking broader inflationary concerns . At the same time, a much stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report on June 5 effectively erased any remaining expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts, instead fueling speculation the Fed might need to hike further to cool the economy .

These events piled pressure onto Bitcoin by making other assets relatively more attractive. Elevated yields on traditional safe havens, such as a 10-year U.S. Treasury yield that remained over 4.45%, offered institutional investors a direct, lower-risk alternative to a risk-on asset facing strong headwinds . Higher rates historically compress appetite for non-yielding assets like cryptocurrencies, and the market repriced accordingly.

The May CPI Report Is the Next Tipping Point

The focus now shifts squarely to the upcoming May CPI report, expected around June 10-11, 2026. 10x Research projects that May inflation will print at 4.3% . This number is the single most important data point for Bitcoin’s immediate trajectory.

If the CPI report confirms inflation at or above this level, it would reinforce the hawkish Fed stance that has made institutions reluctant to hold Bitcoin ETFs. The sell-off could easily extend, with the $60,000 level acting as a ceiling rather than a floor. A weaker-than-expected print could trigger a relief rally, but 10x's base case is that inflation remains stubbornly sticky, keeping Bitcoin in a “bearish until proven otherwise” phase . The firm’s 2026 outlook is entirely conditional on the inflation data improving enough to finally allow the Fed to signal a cutting cycle, currently a distant prospect .

10x Research’s Outlook at a Glance

• Cause of the sell-off: Institutional ETF outflows of ~$5.4 billion, triggered by hot April inflation data .
• Strategy’s actual role: A minor, symbolic 32 BTC sale; the firm added $2 billion in BTC during the same window .
• Fed and rates: Higher-for-longer is now the base case. No cuts expected until inflation shows a decisive decline .
• The May CPI catalyst: Expected at 4.3%. A reading at or above this level is likely to intensify selling pressure and delay any policy pivot .