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AI Demand Is Squeezing Memory Supply—and Prices May Rise Again in September
Bank of America expects DRAM and NAND spot prices to rise another 10%–20% in September 2026 as peak season buying meets an AI driven supply squeeze. AI customers are receiving priority for HBM and server memory, leaving PC, smartphone and smaller component buyers with tighter allocations and higher costs.
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Key takeaways
- Bank of America expects DRAM and NAND spot prices to rise another 10%–20% in September 2026 as peak season buying meets an AI driven supply squeeze.
- AI customers are receiving priority for HBM and server memory, leaving PC, smartphone and smaller component buyers with tighter allocations and higher costs.
- DRAM and HBM are likely to remain structurally tight into 2027, while NAND could begin to loosen in the second half of 2027 as new capacity comes online.
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openai.comCreate a landscape editorial hero image for this Studio Global article: What is driving Bank of America’s forecast that DRAM and NAND spot prices could rise another 10%–20% in September 2026, and what does this w. Article summary: Bank of America’s September call reflects a supply squeeze colliding with the seasonal purchasing peak: the major producers are allocating scarce output toward higher-value AI and server memory, leaving less DRAM and NAN. Topic tags: general, news, general web, user generated. Style: premium digital editorial illustration, source-backed research mood, clean composition, high detail, modern web publication hero. Use reference image context only for broad subject, composition, and topical grounding; do not copy the exact image. Avoid: logos, brand marks, copyrighted characters, real person likenesses, fake screenshots, UI text, readable text, watermarks, charts w
Bank of America’s September forecast is the result of two pressures arriving at once: seasonal purchasing ahead of the year-end electronics cycle and a memory industry that is directing scarce capacity toward AI servers. The bank expects DRAM and NAND spot prices to rise another 10%–20% in September, although that forecast should not be read as a uniform increase across every contract, product category or retail device. 5
Why prices could rise again in September
Memory suppliers are prioritizing higher-value AI and server products, particularly high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and server DRAM. That leaves less conventional DRAM and NAND available to distributors, module makers and consumer-electronics manufacturers. At the same time, buyers are placing orders ahead of the traditional peak season, increasing competition for inventory that is already difficult to secure. 5
This is an allocation problem as much as a manufacturing problem. New fabs and production expansions take time to build, equip and ramp, so suppliers cannot quickly respond to a sudden increase in AI-related demand. Industry reporting also indicates that Samsung, SK hynix and Micron have committed much of their future DRAM and HBM capacity to AI customers, though claims about fully booked 2027 output are based on industry reports rather than uniform public disclosures. 3
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Current prices show how stressed the market is
Spot pricing has already moved sharply. Data attributed to Bank of America show new DDR5-5600/6400 24GB module prices rose 8% month over month in August and stood 483% above the year-earlier level. 10 Separate reporting also describes strong NAND spot-price gains, with newer parts rising 5%–6% in one recent week and legacy parts gaining more than 10%.
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Spot prices are not the same as the prices paid under long-term contracts, and neither directly determines the final price of a laptop, phone or SSD. Still, sustained spot-market pressure can raise procurement costs, reduce discounts and make it harder for smaller buyers to obtain supply.
Why fulfillment is getting worse
The three largest suppliers—Samsung, SK hynix and Micron—are allocating more output to AI customers and higher-margin HBM and server products. That squeezes the channel serving conventional PCs, smartphones and other electronics. 5
Reported fulfillment figures vary by source and should not be treated as a single market-wide measurement. Bank of America’s cited channel survey put September spot-market supply sufficiency below 50%, while another industry report said some PC and smartphone makers were receiving only 60%–70% of requested volumes. 5
4 The difference reflects different samples and definitions, but both reports point to the same practical risk: buyers without large, long-term commitments may receive less memory than they request.
What consumers and device makers may feel
The first impact is likely to appear in manufacturer costs rather than as an identical price increase on every product. Higher memory costs can pressure the bill of materials for:
- PCs and laptops
- Smartphones
- SSDs and other storage products
- Standalone memory upgrades
- Servers and AI systems
Manufacturers may respond with smaller discounts, constrained configurations, lower-memory models or delayed shipments where allocations cannot be secured. Whether those costs reach retail prices will depend on each company’s inventory, contracts, margins and willingness to absorb the increase.
The broader market is therefore being split in two. AI infrastructure buyers can justify paying more for scarce, performance-critical memory, while conventional electronics makers compete for the capacity left over. 3
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Nvidia’s growth now has a memory bottleneck
HBM is a critical component in AI accelerators, including Nvidia-style GPU systems. As Nvidia and its customers consume more HBM, memory suppliers have an incentive to direct wafer capacity toward HBM and server products rather than conventional consumer DRAM. 8
That creates a constraint beyond GPU demand itself. Nvidia can have strong orders for AI accelerators, but the number of complete systems shipped may also depend on the availability of HBM and accompanying server memory. Nvidia’s finance chief said the memory shortage could remain a growth bottleneck through fiscal 2028, which ends in January 2028. 7
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This does not mean Nvidia demand has disappeared. It means memory availability can limit how quickly that demand becomes completed, shipped infrastructure.
Why SK hynix is a major beneficiary—and still constrained
The shortage is commercially favorable for SK hynix because tight supply supports pricing power and a richer mix of HBM and server memory. However, higher demand does not instantly create more units. Capacity, production lead times and the specialized nature of HBM limit how quickly the company can expand shipments.
SK hynix CEO Kwak Noh-jung described 2027 as potentially the industry’s worst year from a supply perspective and said demand could exceed the company’s production capability well beyond 2030. 1 That outlook supports the bullish pricing case for memory producers, but it also highlights the physical limit on how much additional supply can reach customers in the near term.
Will memory prices ease before 2027?
Broad relief before 2027 looks unlikely based on the evidence available, especially for DRAM and HBM. Continued AI-server demand, ongoing HBM allocation and slow capacity ramps are expected to keep DRAM supply constrained. 12
NAND has a different outlook. TrendForce expects NAND to move into a looser supply environment in the second half of 2027 as new production capacity comes online, while weak consumer-electronics demand adds downward pressure. 12 Another market outlook similarly expects NAND to move toward balance or oversupply during that period, while DRAM remains in structural shortage.
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That means a correction in a particular NAND segment could arrive before the broader memory crisis ends. It would not necessarily bring down DRAM or HBM prices, nor would it immediately solve the supply bottleneck facing AI infrastructure.
The practical takeaway
Bank of America’s 10%–20% September forecast reflects a market where AI demand is competing directly with conventional electronics for limited memory. Consumers may see higher prices or fewer attractive configurations, while device makers face higher costs and less predictable fulfillment. Nvidia’s expansion is increasingly tied not just to accelerator demand but also to HBM and server-memory availability. SK hynix and other suppliers benefit from pricing power, yet remain limited by the time required to add meaningful capacity.
The most important distinction is between memory types: DRAM and HBM appear likely to stay tight through 2027, while NAND has a clearer path toward easing in the second half of 2027. A single market-wide “relief date” therefore risks obscuring two different supply stories.
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What is the short answer to "AI Demand Is Squeezing Memory Supply—and Prices May Rise Again in September"?
Bank of America expects DRAM and NAND spot prices to rise another 10%–20% in September 2026 as peak season buying meets an AI driven supply squeeze.
What are the key points to validate first?
Bank of America expects DRAM and NAND spot prices to rise another 10%–20% in September 2026 as peak season buying meets an AI driven supply squeeze. AI customers are receiving priority for HBM and server memory, leaving PC, smartphone and smaller component buyers with tighter allocations and higher costs.
What should I do next in practice?
DRAM and HBM are likely to remain structurally tight into 2027, while NAND could begin to loosen in the second half of 2027 as new capacity comes online.
Sources
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