China Warns Against Japan’s ‘Neo‑Militarism’ as Tokyo Considers Major Defense Spending Increase

Japan’s defense spending is rising quickly

Japan historically maintained relatively low military spending—roughly around 1% of GDP for decades after World War II—but that trend has shifted significantly in recent years.

Recent data highlights the scale of the increase:

• Japan spent about $55.3 billion on defense in 2024, according to SIPRI.
• That was 21% higher than in 2023 and 49% higher than in 2015, the largest annual increase since 1952.
• By 2025 spending reached roughly $62.2 billion, continuing a rapid upward trend.

Tokyo already plans to raise overall security spending to roughly 2% of GDP by 2027, doubling the traditional postwar benchmark.

Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party has also begun studying whether spending should increase further—potentially toward 3–5% of GDP—partly in response to defense spending debates among NATO members and allied countries.

Arms imports and capability expansion

Japan is also expanding its military capabilities and procurement programs. According to data cited from SIPRI analyses, Japan’s arms imports rose by about 155% between 2019–2023 compared with 2014–2018, making it one of the world’s larger weapons importers.

Much of the spending is aimed at new capabilities such as:

• long‑range “counterstrike” missile systems
• improved missile defense
• unmanned systems and advanced surveillance

These programs are intended to strengthen deterrence and protect Japan’s southwestern islands and surrounding waters amid rising regional tensions.

The role of the United States and alliance pressure

U.S. policy also plays a role in the debate. Washington has long encouraged allies to spend more on their own defense, and recent proposals in Western security discussions—including NATO spending targets—have helped shape conversations in Tokyo about whether spending levels should rise beyond 2%.

Japan’s defense reforms are closely tied to the U.S.–Japan alliance, which remains the cornerstone of its security strategy. Increasing military capabilities is seen partly as a way to strengthen joint deterrence and ensure continued U.S. engagement in the region.

Why Japan says the buildup is necessary

Japanese leaders argue the changes are defensive and driven by a rapidly deteriorating regional security environment.

Government strategy documents state that Japan faces “the most severe and complex security environment since World War II,” requiring a fundamental reinforcement of its defense capabilities.

Several factors drive this assessment:

• China’s growing military power and pressure around Taiwan and the East China Sea
• North Korea’s advancing ballistic missile programs
• broader regional instability and technological advances in missile warfare

Japan’s National Security Strategy identifies China as the country’s “greatest strategic challenge” and North Korea as a “grave and imminent threat.”

In Tokyo’s view, stronger deterrence—including the ability to conduct counterstrikes against missile launch sites—helps prevent conflict rather than provoke it.

A widening strategic rivalry

The disagreement highlights a broader strategic rivalry between China and Japan. For Beijing, Japan’s military expansion raises historical and geopolitical concerns. For Tokyo, strengthening defense capabilities is seen as a necessary response to rising threats.

As both countries continue expanding their military capabilities, the debate over Japan’s defense spending reflects deeper shifts in the balance of power across the Asia‑Pacific.