Scaramucci's Q4 2026 Bitcoin Recovery Bet: The Case for a Late-Year Bottom

Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital, is staking his reputation on a simple thesis: Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle is not broken. He predicts the cryptocurrency's current bear market—which saw it plunge roughly 50% from an October 2025 peak of ~$126,000 to a February 2026 low near $60,000—will finally give way to a new bull market by the fourth quarter of 2026 . His forecast, centered on a target of about $150,000, has become a focal point in a heated debate dividing some of the market's most prominent voices .

Scaramucci's Forecast: A Textbook Mid-Cycle Correction

In a series of interviews throughout 2026, including a June discussion with Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, Scaramucci has characterized the downturn as a "garden variety" bear phase firmly within the historical rhythm of Bitcoin's post-halving behavior . He argues the market adheres to a reliable pattern: roughly one year of losses followed by three years of gains .

The sell-off, he explains, was triggered by long-term holders distributing their coins into the $100,000 psychological level—a profit-taking pattern visible in prior cycles . While institutional buying through spot ETFs from firms like BlackRock and Fidelity has softened the downside, Scaramucci maintains that it has not erased the cyclical structure . He expects trading to remain choppy for most of 2026, with a sustained recovery only beginning in Q4 or early 2027 .

Some sources attribute figures up to $200,000 to his longer-term view, but the verified claim is a directional bet on a cycle-driven Q4 recovery, with $150,000 as the most frequently cited near-term target .

Analyst Alignment and Divergence on a Late-2026 Bottom

Scaramucci is far from alone in his timing, though his peers offer different nuances on price and severity.

Benjamin Cowen — CEO of Into the Cryptoverse — is the closest intellectual ally on timing. Cowen has stated that the four-year cycle remains the dominant force and that Bitcoin’s most likely bottom is October 2026, roughly one year after the peak . He has called the 50% drop from the all-time high only a "partial reset" of a late-cycle environment and warns the bear market is not over, recently describing any mid-year rally as a "dead cat bounce" . Cowen has assigned only a 25% probability that the February 2026 low near $60,000 was the final bottom .

Peter Brandt — the veteran chartist — concurs on the late-2026 window, projecting a bottom around September or October 2026 based on historical halving cycles . Where he breaks from Scaramucci is in his ultimate upside target: Brandt sees a subsequent rally taking Bitcoin to $250,000 by late 2029, a far more ambitious projection than Scaramucci’s $150K .

Michael Terpin — the crypto investor and author — aligns closely with the October 2026 timeline and is even more precise on the downside, forecasting a bottom at approximately $57,000 by that date, applying historical drawdown durations from the October 2025 peak .

Contrarian Signals Flashing a Bottom

Beyond the cycle theorists, a set of sentiment and on-chain indicators is lending weight to the late-2026 bottom case.

Plunging Google search interest. By mid-2026, global Google search interest for “cryptocurrency” had collapsed to a reading of 26–30 out of 100, down roughly 70 points from its August 2025 peak . More strikingly, Bitcoin-specific search interest in May 2026 fell below levels recorded during the 2022–2023 bear market, when BTC traded near $16,000 in the aftermath of the FTX collapse . Historically, such extreme retail disinterest has marked or preceded market bottoms .

Record bearish sentiment. In February 2026, as Bitcoin slid toward $60,000, U.S. Google searches for "Bitcoin to zero" and "Bitcoin is dead" hit all-time highs . Analysts note that these spikes in doomsday queries have historically served as contrarian bottoming signals .

Galaxy’s bottoming-signal framework. A June 2026 report from Galaxy Digital published a framework of 13 historical bottoming signs. By early June, only 4 of the 13 signals had triggered, and three of those were described as “softer indicators.” The report explicitly assumes the bottom has not yet formed, supporting the Q4 2026 timeframe as a plausible window for a final low .

The Opposing View: Is the Four-Year Cycle Broken?

A counter-narrative is gaining traction, arguing that the halving cycle framework is losing its predictive power. The core argument, advanced by analysts like Tom Lee, Cathie Wood, and Arthur Hayes, is that structural changes have permanently altered Bitcoin's market dynamics .

Scaramucci has publicly dismissed these voices, insisting the cycle persists . Yet even he acknowledges that spot ETF inflows have muted volatility and “potentially altered how the cycle plays out” . The skeptics make three main claims:

• An institutional floor. Sustained buying through Bitcoin ETFs is providing a structural bid that dampens the severity of post-halving corrections, potentially preventing the 75–85% drawdowns seen in earlier cycles .
• Macro correlation risks. Bitcoin is behaving increasingly like a high-beta macro asset, correlating with equity markets, interest rates, and global liquidity cycles. A steep stock market downturn could trigger a correlated 50% drawdown in BTC, overriding the supply-driven halving schedule .
• An elongating cycle. The 2025–2026 drawdown, while deep in dollar terms, has not followed prior post-halving fractal patterns precisely. Some chart watchers suggest the cycle may be stretching, not repeating .

As of June 2026, Bitcoin has erased over $1.2 trillion in market cap from its peak, wiping out all gains accumulated during President Trump's second term, according to CNN . The debate over whether this is a garden-variety cycle low or a structural regime change remains the defining tension for the market's next major move.