Why Russia Fired Andrei Klepach After His Warning on the War

• declining investment;
• weak productivity growth;
• widening inequality; and
• a growing technological and economic gap with other countries.

Klepach reportedly projected that Russian GDP growth would reach only 1–1.5% in 2027. That estimate was broadly close to a revised Russian Economic Development Ministry forecast of 1.4% growth for the same year, although the forecasts came from different sources and should not be treated as identical.

The role of Western support for Ukraine

Klepach said Ukraine’s economy had survived in part because of substantial Western financial assistance. In his account, military and domestic support was equivalent to almost half of Russia’s budget, while total assistance exceeded Russia’s capital outflow by several times. He argued that without this external support, Ukraine’s economy would have collapsed.

That point was important to his broader argument: Russia’s apparent resilience did not mean that it was winning the wider competition. Ukraine’s ability to continue operating depended heavily on outside financing, but Russia was also absorbing mounting economic costs from the war, sanctions pressure and attacks on infrastructure.

Why he warned of a social crisis

Klepach also said Russia could eventually face a serious social crisis that might emerge unexpectedly. He referred to the February Revolution of 1917 and the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991 as historical examples of upheaval that became difficult to control once it began.

He did not predict that Russia would necessarily disintegrate. The warning was narrower: even if the economy avoided outright collapse, accumulated losses, inequality and falling growth could create conditions for a future crisis. Reports said he was “almost certain” that some form of social crisis would eventually occur.

What is known about his dismissal

The timeline is relatively clear. Klepach delivered the speech in May, excerpts gained broad attention in mid-August, and he lost his VEB.RF position on August 16. Multiple reports linked the dismissal to the speech.

VEB.RF’s reported explanation was that Klepach had made “harsh personal assessments” of Russia’s economic and political development that did not correspond to the corporation’s position.

TASS confirmed that Klepach no longer held the chief economist role and reported that a replacement would be appointed, but it did not provide a political explanation for his departure.

Was the Kremlin directly involved?

That part of the story remains unconfirmed. The Bell, citing sources familiar with Klepach, reported that VEB.RF chief Igor Shuvalov acted after a “call from above.” Other outlets repeated the claim, but it came from anonymous-source reporting rather than an official Kremlin statement.

The available evidence therefore supports a cautious conclusion: Klepach’s May remarks were widely reported as a factor in his dismissal, while the precise chain of command behind the decision has not been publicly established.

Klepach’s position at VEB.RF

Klepach had served as VEB.RF’s chief economist for 12 years and joined the institution in 2014. Before that, he spent about a decade at Russia’s Economic Development Ministry, including eight years as a deputy minister.

That background made his comments unusually notable. He was not an outside commentator but a senior economist with long experience inside Russia’s economic-policy establishment. Reports placed him in the same broad cohort of officials associated with figures such as Elvira Nabiullina and Andrei Belousov, although the available reporting does not establish the precise nature of those professional relationships.

Klepach’s removal thus carried a message beyond one personnel decision: a senior state economist publicly described Russia as losing ground in the long economic competition surrounding the war, and the remarks became politically costly once they circulated widely.