Prices are falling in Vietnam’s resale market—but affordability is not improving

Vietnam’s secondary real estate market entered a clearer correction phase in the second quarter of 2026. Resale apartment and land-plot prices fell in several areas, but not enough to make housing broadly affordable. The sharper change was in liquidity: buyers became more cautious, short-term investors pulled back and borrowing costs made it harder to hold property while waiting for prices to rise. 134

Prices eased, but Vietnam did not become a bargain market

According to reports citing the Ministry of Construction, secondary apartment prices declined in many localities compared with the first quarter of 2026. In Hanoi, CBRE recorded an average secondary selling price of about VND60 million per square metre, down nearly 3% quarter on quarter. It was the first quarterly decline in this segment since late 2022. Some individual projects saw local adjustments of roughly 5–12%. 1112

Project land plots also came under pressure after a prolonged period of price growth. Average prices nationwide fell by about 2–3%, or approximately 2.5% quarter on quarter, with the strongest pressure in areas that had previously experienced rapid increases. 4

The figures should not be read as evidence of a uniform nationwide price collapse. Adjustments varied significantly by location, project legality, asset quality and statistical methodology. Some reports put average apartment prices at about VND123 million per square metre in Hanoi, VND108 million in Ho Chi Minh City and VND69 million in Hung Yen, while CBRE’s figure for Hanoi secondary apartments was about VND60 million per square metre. The gap suggests that the figures may cover different datasets, geographic areas or market segments, so they should not be compared as though they were the same indicator. 1811

The consistent point across the sources is that Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City remained among Vietnam’s most expensive housing markets even after secondary prices cooled. 13

Transactions fell faster than prices

The slowdown in trading was more pronounced than the adjustment in asking prices. In Hanoi, secondary apartment transactions were reported to have fallen 61% year on year in Q2. The city recorded approximately 9,100 real estate transfer transactions overall, down 18% from the previous quarter and 64% from the same period in 2025. 7

Data compiled from local authorities showed more than 100,005 successful real estate transactions nationwide during the quarter—equivalent to 71.5% of the Q1 total and 63.7% of the figure recorded a year earlier. Apartment and individual-home transactions accounted for 26,567 deals, while land plots accounted for 73,438; land-plot transactions alone fell 32.6% quarter on quarter. 55

The sources use different statistical scopes. VARS IRE recorded approximately 23,600 primary-market transactions in Q2, whereas the local-authority figures cover total transactions across multiple segments and property types. The two figures therefore should not be added together or treated as interchangeable. 105155

New supply rose as buyers held back

The market also had to absorb a substantial volume of new supply. Nearly 34,000 housing products were launched in Q2, down about 10% from the previous quarter and 8% from the same period in 2025. Despite the quarterly decline, total supply in the first half of the year reached approximately 98,000 products, up around 50% year on year. 101351

VARS IRE recorded about 23,600 primary transactions, implying an absorption rate of approximately 41%, six percentage points lower than in the previous quarter. That left a wide gap between the number of homes brought to market and the number actually absorbed. 10

New supply was also heavily weighted toward higher-priced homes. Apartments accounted for about 74.7% of newly launched supply in Q2. Of those apartments, luxury and ultra-luxury units made up roughly 45%, high-end units 37% and mid-range apartments only about 18%. This composition helps explain why more supply did not automatically translate into better affordability for most owner-occupiers. 53

The Ministry of Construction said 1,735 commercial housing projects were under way nationwide, representing approximately 878,589 homes or plots. The figure points to a large potential supply pipeline even as effective demand remains constrained by prices and credit conditions. 49

High interest rates squeezed both buyers and investors

Borrowing costs were one of the quarter’s main obstacles. A survey of 10 banks found that promotional home-loan rates commonly ranged from 8.5% to 11% a year, but were generally fixed for only six to 12 months. After that period, rates were calculated using a base or reference rate plus a margin of around 3.3–3.5%, taking effective repayment rates to approximately 13–15% a year. During the first half of 2026, some floating-rate loans reached 16%. 48

That structure made long-term repayments difficult to predict. For leveraged investors, higher interest payments reduced the cash available to hold property, refinance debt or wait for a resale. As expectations of rapid price growth weakened, buying for a quick turnaround became less attractive as well.

Buyer behaviour reflected the shift. Purchases of apartments for short-term speculation accounted for only about 4% of the market, compared with 30–40% in previous years. Around 67% of transactions were reportedly driven by genuine housing demand, while nearly 30% were linked to rental investment. 17

Why did the market weaken if prices did not fall sharply?

The second-quarter downturn is best understood as a correction in liquidity and financing capacity, rather than a uniform collapse across every location and segment.

The mechanism was broadly sequential:

1. Higher interest rates reduced borrowing capacity and increased debt-servicing pressure.
2. Owner-occupiers postponed decisions because prices remained high and future financing costs were uncertain.
3. Short-term investors withdrew as rapid appreciation became less certain.
4. Sales slowed, increasing inventories and placing greater pressure on developers’ cash flow.
5. Sellers increased discounts or adjusted prices, particularly for less liquid projects and assets in formerly overheated areas.

As a result, listed prices could fall by only a few percentage points while transaction volumes dropped much more sharply. The market was moving away from a period dominated by expectations of quick capital gains and toward closer scrutiny of legal status, practical housing demand, rental prospects and the cost of capital. 1317

Why lawmakers want to prohibit real estate market manipulation

In a market where transaction data remain fragmented and liquidity is relatively thin, false signals about prices or demand can have an outsized effect on buyers’ decisions. That is why National Assembly deputies have proposed amending the Law on Real Estate Business to define market manipulation more clearly and include it among prohibited acts. 3233

The conduct discussed includes:

• creating sham or circular transactions to establish an artificial price level;
• colluding on purchases or sales to push prices higher;
• manufacturing false scarcity or misleading signals about supply and demand;
• using inaccurate information about planning, projects or prices to create a speculative “wave”; and
• providing misleading information that causes buyers to purchase at inflated prices. 343541

The proposal has been compared with the way securities law addresses the creation of a false market and price manipulation. Some lawmakers have argued that serious cases should face sufficiently strong sanctions, potentially including criminal liability. However, the precise application would depend on the final legislation and related enforcement rules. 4247

The central issue is distinguishing lawful investment, ordinary speculation and deliberate manipulation. Buying property in the hope that it will appreciate is not automatically manipulation. The legal concern is whether someone intentionally creates fake transactions, false information or artificial supply-and-demand signals in order to influence the market and profit. The amendments remain under discussion and do not yet establish a new offence. 3239

Conclusion: the market is screening out speculative money

Vietnam’s Q2 2026 property data show a market with substantial potential supply but insufficient affordable purchasing power to absorb it. Secondary prices declined in many areas—particularly Hanoi apartments and land plots—yet housing remained expensive in the major cities. At the same time, post-promotion mortgage rates, inventories and the retreat of speculative capital continued to weigh on liquidity.

The market is therefore placing greater value on genuine housing demand, clear legal documentation and long-term utility than on short-term price signals. If anti-misinformation and anti-manipulation rules are drafted clearly, they could improve transparency in price formation. Their practical impact, however, will depend on whether authorities can detect, prove and effectively sanction violations.