COCERAL Raises EU Soft Wheat Forecast to 143.7m t Despite May Heatwave, Slashes Corn Outlook

Barley production was forecast at 58.8 million tonnes .

Why Wheat and Corn Are Moving in Opposite Directions

The divergence between wheat and corn outlooks stems from a combination of weather, timing, and farmer economics.

Wheat benefits from a strong winter crop foundation. The 2025-26 winter crop season was broadly favourable for much of Europe. In July 2025, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) reported above-average yield expectations for winter crops in Romania, Bulgaria, France, Spain, Ireland, the Nordic countries, and the Baltic countries, supported by sufficient water supply throughout the season . Germany, Poland, and Hungary were on track for around-average yields, while only Italy and Türkiye faced reduced expectations due to heat and water stress .

This positive base has supported the soft wheat outlook. Even as weather concerns have emerged—most notably the late-May 2026 heatwave—the crop entered a critical grain-filling period in reasonable condition. France's soft wheat was rated 80% good to very good as of mid-May, nine percentage points above the same week in 2025 .

Corn is squeezed by weather, area loss, and risk fatigue. The core problem for European corn is concentrated in south-eastern Europe. Hot and dry weather has depleted soil moisture in Hungary, eastern Croatia, Romania, Bulgaria, and Greece, directly threatening summer crop yields . While summer crops in western Europe have been resisting heat stress, the regional divergence is stark .

Compounding weather issues is a structural retreat from corn planting. COCERAL itself noted that "repeated disappointments with corn yields in recent years" are driving farmers to reduce area and shift to alternative spring crops such as sunflowers and soybeans . This is consistent with earlier signals: the June 2025 corn forecast was revised down from 63.3 mln t to 60.6 mln t due to lower plantings and a bigger-than-expected switch to sunseed, and the second 2026 forecast of 142.6 mln t for soft wheat captured the persistent soft-wheat/corn divergence .

The Late-May Heatwave: Immediate Impact on France

The factor that is actively reshaping the short-term outlook is the record-breaking late-May heatwave across western Europe. Temperatures were forecast to reach as much as 20°C above normal, with highs into the 90s°F across much of Western Europe in the final week of May .

The heatwave, centred on France, the UK, Ireland, and Spain, arrived during a critical period as winter wheat approached anthesis . FranceAgriMer data show a week-on-week deterioration in major cereal conditions: soft wheat rated good or excellent fell to 78% as of 25 May, down from 81% the previous week, with western regions primarily affected . While still above the 70% recorded a year earlier, the decline caught market attention and nudged European wheat prices higher .

This early-season heat stress carries a longer-term risk. Research published in 2025 indicates that early-season heat can make crops more vulnerable to subsequent heatwaves during the flowering period, amplifying yield losses by 5–55% across maize, soybean, wheat, and barley in the US and EU . A separate NASA study projects that heatwave-related wheat yield losses in France could double in the future, particularly if anthesis is timed during late May and early June—exactly when the current heatwave hit .

Parallel Forecasts and the Wider Context

Other forecasters echo the same broad trends. Expana's analysis for the 2025/26 season confirmed a record soft wheat harvest and the largest barley crop since 2008, while maize remained among the lowest since 2007, reflecting strong northern yields and weak southern results . Expana's August 2025 estimates placed EU soft wheat at 132.8 mln t, barley at 54.8 mln t, and maize at 55.9 mln t for the 2025/26 season .

The European Commission's medium-term outlook for 2025–2035 projects slow productivity growth amid climate-change challenges and higher input costs, while maintaining an expectation of EU self-sufficiency in grains . The Commission also noted in a USDA-attached report that EU grain production in MY 2025/26 was expected to exceed the prior season due to larger winter grain area and improved yields .

The broader weather backdrop adds pressure. More than half of the land in Europe and the Mediterranean basin faced some form of drought in mid-May 2025, the highest level recorded for that period since monitoring began in 2012 . While UK farmers reported delayed sprouting of wheat and corn due to dry conditions, the immediate focus remains on how the 2026 crop withstands a growing season that began with promise but is now testing its resilience.