ASML Raised Its 2026 Forecast to €43–45 Billion — So Why Are Its Biggest Customers Holding Back on the Next Big Thing?

The driver is unmistakable: AI.

• Logic-related sales are projected to grow over 25% for the full year, powered by 3 nm capacity expansion for AI accelerators and initial 2 nm ramps .
• Memory-related sales are expected to surge over 75% in 2026, driven by capacity expansions to support DDR and HBM price increases .
• ASML committed to a 30% annual production capacity increase across both its EUV and DUV product lines for each of the next two years to ease fears that a bottleneck could slow the AI boom .
• The company ended 2025 with a near €39 billion backlog, and orders continued to outpace expectations through mid-2026 .

The key insight: this surge is entirely driven by current-generation 0.33 NA EUV and DUV tools — the machines chipmakers need right now to meet AI demand. The next-generation upgrade cycle is a separate story.

The High-NA EUV Pause: Why TSMC and Samsung Aren't Buying (Yet)

In April 2026, TSMC — ASML's largest customer — dropped a bombshell. SVP Kevin Zhang told reporters the company has no plans to adopt High-NA EUV before 2029, bluntly calling the roughly €350 million per-tool price "very, very expensive" . TSMC believes its existing 0.33 NA EUV tools can still meet upcoming node requirements, including its A13 process .

Then in August 2026, Samsung confirmed it would skip High-NA EUV entirely at its 2 nm and 1.4 nm nodes, targeting its first 1 nm-class node (SF1A) around 2030 for adoption . Samsung executives cited immature ecosystem readiness — photoresists, masks, and inspection — as the key reason .

The critical nuance: This caution is not about ASML's current business. It is about the next upgrade cycle, which has now been pushed out to 2029–2030. ASML itself has said it expects "the first memory and logic products manufactured on High-NA EUV systems within the next few months" from other early adopters — likely Intel and memory manufacturers .

The Smart Money Split: Arrowstreet Adds, Maverick Exits

The Q2 2026 SEC 13F filings (quarter ended June 30, 2026) reveal a dramatic divergence among the largest institutional investors.

On the bullish side:

• Arrowstreet Capital increased its ASML stake by 6.3% in Q1 2026, ending with ~1.64 million shares worth ~$2.17 billion — building on a massive 195.8% increase in the prior quarter .
• Sei Investments, T. Rowe Price, Invesco, and Sands Capital also increased their holdings .

On the bearish side:

• Maverick Capital (Lee Ainslie) nearly fully exited its ASML position in Q2 2026, with the sale representing a material portfolio impact . The filing shows Ainslie added 84 other stocks during the quarter, signaling a deliberate rotation away from ASML .

Interpretation: This is not a disagreement about the current business. Bulls like Arrowstreet are betting that AI-driven demand for current-generation tools will sustain growth and that High-NA adoption is simply a timing question. Bears like Maverick may be concerned about the High-NA overhang, peak-cycle valuation, or the multi-year narrative gap before the next major upgrade catalyst materializes.

Analyst Consensus: "Moderate Buy" with a Long-Term Caveat

Wall Street remains broadly constructive despite the High-NA uncertainty.

• Consensus rating: "Moderate Buy" from 32 brokerages as of late July 2026 — 21 Buy ratings, 4 Strong Buy, 4 Hold, and 3 Sell .
• The average 12-month price target was around $1,970, with JPMorgan raising its target to $2,400 in mid-July (implying ~33% upside) .
• One downgrade note: Wall Street Zen lowered ASML to "Hold" from "Buy" on August 15, 2026, but the broader consensus remains intact .

Share buyback: ASML announced in January 2026 a €12 billion share repurchase program through 2028 (~$14.32 billion), signaling management confidence in long-term cash generation . In Q1 2026 alone, ASML bought back roughly €1.1 billion of its own stock .

The conflict is timeline-based. Analysts see the current AI-driven order book as strong enough to support near-term earnings, while the High-NA delay pushes the next major catalyst to 2029–2030, creating a potential air pocket in narrative momentum — but not in this year's financials.

The Bottom Line

ASML's story in 2026 is a tale of two timelines: the AI-powered present, which is booming, and the High-NA future, which is delayed. Investors are placing their bets accordingly.