This pattern — holders with at least 1 million XRP growing while market cap falls — is what Santiment describes as a signal that 'stronger hands are absorbing supply leaving weaker hands' .

The Coreum Bridge Exploit — Contained but Market-Sensitive

On August 9, a flaw in the Coreum–XRP Ledger bridge's relayer logic allowed an attacker to drain approximately 199,916 XRP in 94 payments over 97 minutes (from 19:16 to 20:53 UTC), reducing the bridge pool from approximately 200,410 XRP to approximately 493 XRP . The exploit targeted memo-data verification logic — the relayer never verified actual destination addresses, only transaction memos .

Key takeaway: the XRP Ledger itself was not compromised. No validator keys were stolen, and no vulnerability existed in the XRPL's consensus mechanism or cryptography . The bridge operator halted operations immediately.

However, the timing amplified bearish sentiment. The incident was cited as one of five proximate causes for XRP breaking below $1 just two days later .

Overhead Supply and the Derivatives Setup

Even with aggressive whale accumulation, XRP faces a structural hurdle near $1.06.

• Nearly 3 billion XRP were purchased in the $1.05–$1.07 range. Any rally to that zone encounters a wall of break-even sellers looking to exit flat .
• Perpetual futures open interest rose to approximately 2.74 billion XRP, consistent with new short positioning that has mounted as price declined. This creates the setup for a potential short squeeze if bulls push above $1.06 — shorts would be forced to cover into rising demand .

The Path Ahead: Four Key Levels

AI models that analyzed every XRP crash since 2013 put a 35–40% chance that XRP extends its decline to $0.85–$0.98, with the CLARITY Act vote and Fed rate decision in September flagged as key catalysts .

Broader Macro Context

The CPI report is the macro wildcard. A softer print would boost risk appetite broadly and strengthen the case for a Fed rate cut, which would particularly benefit depressed altcoins like XRP. Conversely, a hot CPI could accelerate selling into the $1 support .

The CLARITY Act (Cryptocurrency Legal Clarity and Investor Protection Act) vote in September is the regulatory catalyst that analyst Gareth Soloway is watching. Passage would remove a key legal uncertainty that has weighed on XRP since the SEC case era .

Bottom Line

XRP is in a high-conviction accumulation zone — whales buying, network activity surging, and the XRP Ledger's fundamentals strengthening — despite bearish price action, a bridge hack scare, and flat ETF demand. The setup is a compressed spring: either $0.96 breaks and a deeper correction follows toward $0.85, or a reclaim of $1.06 triggers a short squeeze toward $1.35–$1.64, with the CLARITY Act and CPI as the macro triggers.

The on-chain data does not guarantee a rally, but it does show that the largest holders are acting as if one is coming.

This pattern — holders with at least 1 million XRP growing while market cap falls — is what Santiment describes as a signal that 'stronger hands are absorbing supply leaving weaker hands' .

The Coreum Bridge Exploit — Contained but Market-Sensitive

On August 9, a flaw in the Coreum–XRP Ledger bridge's relayer logic allowed an attacker to drain approximately 199,916 XRP in 94 payments over 97 minutes (from 19:16 to 20:53 UTC), reducing the bridge pool from approximately 200,410 XRP to approximately 493 XRP . The exploit targeted memo-data verification logic — the relayer never verified actual destination addresses, only transaction memos .

Key takeaway: the XRP Ledger itself was not compromised. No validator keys were stolen, and no vulnerability existed in the XRPL's consensus mechanism or cryptography . The bridge operator halted operations immediately.

However, the timing amplified bearish sentiment. The incident was cited as one of five proximate causes for XRP breaking below $1 just two days later .

Overhead Supply and the Derivatives Setup

Even with aggressive whale accumulation, XRP faces a structural hurdle near $1.06.

• Nearly 3 billion XRP were purchased in the $1.05–$1.07 range. Any rally to that zone encounters a wall of break-even sellers looking to exit flat .
• Perpetual futures open interest rose to approximately 2.74 billion XRP, consistent with new short positioning that has mounted as price declined. This creates the setup for a potential short squeeze if bulls push above $1.06 — shorts would be forced to cover into rising demand .

The Path Ahead: Four Key Levels

AI models that analyzed every XRP crash since 2013 put a 35–40% chance that XRP extends its decline to $0.85–$0.98, with the CLARITY Act vote and Fed rate decision in September flagged as key catalysts .

Broader Macro Context

The CPI report is the macro wildcard. A softer print would boost risk appetite broadly and strengthen the case for a Fed rate cut, which would particularly benefit depressed altcoins like XRP. Conversely, a hot CPI could accelerate selling into the $1 support .

The CLARITY Act (Cryptocurrency Legal Clarity and Investor Protection Act) vote in September is the regulatory catalyst that analyst Gareth Soloway is watching. Passage would remove a key legal uncertainty that has weighed on XRP since the SEC case era .

Bottom Line

XRP is in a high-conviction accumulation zone — whales buying, network activity surging, and the XRP Ledger's fundamentals strengthening — despite bearish price action, a bridge hack scare, and flat ETF demand. The setup is a compressed spring: either $0.96 breaks and a deeper correction follows toward $0.85, or a reclaim of $1.06 triggers a short squeeze toward $1.35–$1.64, with the CLARITY Act and CPI as the macro triggers.

The on-chain data does not guarantee a rally, but it does show that the largest holders are acting as if one is coming.