Bitcoin Bear Market Over? The Evidence Behind Ki Young Ju’s Bull-Cycle Call

The subsequent shift matters because a rally supported only by derivatives can be amplified by leverage and forced positioning. A turn positive in both spot and perpetual markets suggests that the recovery is becoming broader rather than relying exclusively on speculative futures exposure. CryptoQuant and other reports described this as the first such simultaneous positive reading since Bitcoin’s October 2025 peak.

That is the clearest evidence supporting Ju’s thesis—but its scale is still described as modest. The signal is therefore better understood as an early confirmation attempt than as a completed cycle reversal.

Price recovery and moving averages support a trend reversal

Bitcoin rose from the mid-$64,000 area on August 19 toward $70,000 and later above $77,000, with the move described as roughly a 23% recovery from the August 19 level. Technical data available on August 21 placed Bitcoin above its 200-day moving average, while Starkiller Capital said Bitcoin and Ethereum had reclaimed their 200-day averages after drawdowns of approximately 54% and 70%, respectively.

Starkiller argued that prior Bitcoin recoveries above the 200-day average had coincided with bear-market endings. That historical pattern is supportive, but it is not a guarantee: moving-average reclaims can fail, particularly when macro conditions and market structure differ from earlier cycles.

Claims that Bitcoin also reclaimed its 120-day and 20-week moving averages, or that a return to $50,000 is unlikely, are analyst interpretations rather than independently confirmed evidence in the supplied reporting. They may reinforce a bullish technical narrative, but they should not be treated as proof that downside risk has disappeared.

The Treasury announcement explains both the catalyst and the caution

The August 19 catalyst was the U.S. Treasury’s decision to at least double the maximum size of longer-dated Treasury buyback operations from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. The available reports connect the announcement with falling long-term yields and a rapid Bitcoin advance.

The terminology matters: the cited reports describe Treasury bond buybacks, not a repo-market liquidity program.

The move also triggered extensive short covering. Reports counted more than $1 billion in crypto short liquidations within a short period, with one estimate putting short liquidations at approximately $1.74 billion against $173 million in longs. Spot Bitcoin ETF buying had already provided some support before the Treasury announcement, according to contemporaneous reporting.

This combination is a mixed signal. Falling yields, ETF demand and a broader risk-appetite response can help create a durable recovery. But forced liquidations are mechanical buying: they can accelerate a move without demonstrating that long-term investors are prepared to keep adding exposure at higher prices.

Historical and on-chain evidence is supportive, not unanimous

Glassnode’s pre-breakout analysis showed sellers weakening. Bitcoin was trading between a median realized price near $63,000 and a short-term-holder cost basis near $68,700, while spot volume was at its lowest level since 2019. Its Seller Exhaustion Constant had fallen to a cycle-low reading, suggesting that selling pressure was becoming exhausted.

Those conditions are consistent with a market preparing for a reversal. They are not the same as proof of one. Glassnode’s analysis also highlighted crowded long leverage and a thinning bid, while another summary described buyers as absent and said the market still needed a “game-changer.”

Longer-term moving-average history offers another bullish comparison. The 200-week moving average has historically been used as a broad Bitcoin cycle gauge, and historical heatmap analyses associate proximity to that average with prior market bottoms. But those same sources caution that past patterns do not guarantee the same outcome in the future.

Why $80,000 remains an important test

A sharp recovery can still stall at resistance. Analysts have identified the area around $80,000 as a potential supply zone, with moving averages, short-term-holder cost bases and other market-structure levels converging near that region in prior analyses.

The useful question is not whether Bitcoin briefly trades above a round-number level. It is whether the market can produce sustained daily and weekly closes above resistance while spot volume and demand remain healthy. A breakout that depends mainly on short covering would be more vulnerable to a reversal once forced buying ends.

What would confirm the bull-cycle thesis?

The next month is the practical test implied by Ju’s own framework. Evidence would become stronger if:

• spot and perpetual-futures demand remain positive rather than reverting to a futures-only structure;
• ETF buying continues to provide underlying demand;
• Bitcoin holds reclaimed moving averages on daily and weekly time frames;
• price can absorb selling near $80,000 without a renewed breakdown;
• on-chain volume and buyer follow-through improve instead of remaining thin.

Macro shocks, yield reversals and political uncertainty could still trigger consolidation or a correction even if the long-term low is already in. The available evidence therefore supports a careful verdict: Bitcoin may be transitioning out of its bear market, but the transition has not yet been confirmed. The demand turn is the strongest signal; persistence after the Treasury-driven squeeze is the deciding evidence.