Inside JPMorgan’s $2,200 ASML Price Target: The AI Bet Behind Wall Street’s Boldest Call

Q1 2026 Beat Confirmed Broad-Based AI Demand

Revenue for the quarter reached €8.8 billion versus a €8.5 billion consensus, and net income hit €2.8 billion versus the expected €2.5 billion . Critically, up to 51% of new machine sales in Q1 went to the memory segment, compared to 30% the prior quarter—confirming that AI demand is pulling EUV lithography deep into DRAM production, not just logic .

DRAM and EUV: The Volume Lever

Bernstein previously projected that EUV shipments to DRAM customers would more than double from 18 units in 2025 to 44 units in 2028 . JPMorgan did not publish its own unit forecast alongside the $2,200 target, but the scale of the target implies it embedded a similarly aggressive ramp, treating DRAM EUV as a structural growth driver rather than a cyclical bump.

Capital Return Underscores Durability

ASML announced a new €12 billion share buyback program through 2028 and proposed a €7.50 total dividend, reinforcing confidence that the AI-driven cash flows are sustainable and not a one-time windfall .

JPMorgan’s Rapid Ascent: A Timeline of Targets

JPMorgan’s ASML target has moved with unusual speed and scale. Since December 2025, the same analyst has raised the price objective four times, for a cumulative increase of roughly 87%.

*The March target of ~$1,813 is estimated from Futuun’s note that the June increase was from $1,813 to $2,200; JPMorgan did not publish a standalone report at that step .

The pace reflects a market where the underlying fundamentals—orders, guidance, and end-demand visibility—kept outrunning the models fast enough to force repeated upward revisions.

Where $2,200 Sits Against the Consensus

JPMorgan’s call is not merely at the top of the range. It is a clear outlier.

• Consensus average: Platforms tracking 32–44 analysts report mean price targets between roughly $1,590 and $1,669 .
• Next-highest targets: Bernstein sits at $1,971, RBC Capital at $1,700, and several European desks (UBS, Citi, Deutsche Bank) hold targets of €1,600–€1,700, which translates to approximately $1,870–$1,990 depending on the exchange rate .
• The gap: JPMorgan’s $2,200 is roughly 32–38% above the average consensus and more than $200 above the closest competitor. It assumes a growth path that the rest of the Street has not yet priced in.

The Earnings Engine: 2025 Results and 2026 Trajectory

FY 2025 revenue reached €32.7 billion, up roughly 16% year-over-year, with net income of €9.6 billion and a gross margin of 52.8% . Earnings per share rose approximately 28% to €24.71 .

Q1 2026 delivered a 13% revenue increase year-over-year to €8.8 billion and a 17% net income rise to €2.8 billion . Consensus projections now point to EPS of approximately €29.65 for the full year 2026, a roughly 20% jump from 2025 .

The AI Sales Outlook: Why 2026 Looks Different

ASML’s management has been explicit: 2026 growth is “largely driven by a significant increase in EUV sales and growth in our installed base business” . The raised €36–€40 billion revenue range implies up to 22% top-line growth from 2025 levels, with AI chip demand pulling orders forward across both logic and memory segments .

The shift is structural, not cyclical. Memory makers are adopting EUV lithography at a pace that was not anticipated even a year ago, and logic customers are expanding capacity to meet insatiable AI accelerator demand. JPMorgan’s $2,200 target is effectively a bet that this dual demand wave will compress ASML’s growth into a steeper, longer curve than most analysts currently project.