Inside JPMorgan’s $2,200 ASML Price Target: The AI Bet Behind Wall Street’s Boldest Call

On June 3, 2026, JPMorgan analyst Sandeep Deshpande raised the firm’s price target on ASML to $2,200, making it the most bullish call on Wall Street . The target, paired with a maintained Overweight rating, caps a six-month sprint of upgrades from the same analyst and puts JPMorgan far above even the next-most-optimistic forecasts. Here is exactly what is driving that conviction, how the revision stacks up against the bank’s own history and the wider analyst field, and what ASML’s recent numbers say about the AI-shaped road ahead.

The $2,200 Thesis: What Changed

JPMorgan’s new target is not a reaction to a single data point. It is the culmination of an accelerating, AI-led investment cycle in semiconductor manufacturing equipment, with ASML at its center. The firm’s reasoning rests on several reinforcing pillars.

Record Orders Shattered Expectations

In Q4 2025, ASML booked €13.2 billion in orders—more than double the consensus estimate of €6.32 billion—making it the strongest booking quarter in the company’s history . The sheer size of the beat signaled that major chipmakers were placing large, multi-year capacity bets, not just filling near-term demand.

Guidance Lifted Twice in Five Months

Management first raised the 2026 sales outlook to €34–€39 billion in January . After a strong Q1 2026, they lifted it again in April to €36–€40 billion, with the midpoint now roughly €38 billion . Each raise compressed the uncertainty around ASML’s growth trajectory and gave analysts like Deshpande a higher floor from which to model.

Q1 2026 Beat Confirmed Broad-Based AI Demand

Revenue for the quarter reached €8.8 billion versus a €8.5 billion consensus, and net income hit €2.8 billion versus the expected €2.5 billion . Critically, up to 51% of new machine sales in Q1 went to the memory segment, compared to 30% the prior quarter—confirming that AI demand is pulling EUV lithography deep into DRAM production, not just logic .

DRAM and EUV: The Volume Lever

Bernstein previously projected that EUV shipments to DRAM customers would more than double from 18 units in 2025 to 44 units in 2028 . JPMorgan did not publish its own unit forecast alongside the $2,200 target, but the scale of the target implies it embedded a similarly aggressive ramp, treating DRAM EUV as a structural growth driver rather than a cyclical bump.

Capital Return Underscores Durability

ASML announced a new €12 billion share buyback program through 2028 and proposed a €7.50 total dividend, reinforcing confidence that the AI-driven cash flows are sustainable and not a one-time windfall .

JPMorgan’s Rapid Ascent: A Timeline of Targets

JPMorgan’s ASML target has moved with unusual speed and scale. Since December 2025, the same analyst has raised the price objective four times, for a cumulative increase of roughly 87%.

Date	Previous Target	New Target	Increase
Dec 1, 2025	$1,175	$1,275	+8.5%
Jan 14, 2026	$1,275	$1,518	+19%
~Mar 2026	$1,518	~$1,813*	~+19%
Jun 3, 2026	~$1,813	$2,200	~+21%

*The March target of ~$1,813 is estimated from Futuun’s note that the June increase was from $1,813 to $2,200; JPMorgan did not publish a standalone report at that step .

The pace reflects a market where the underlying fundamentals—orders, guidance, and end-demand visibility—kept outrunning the models fast enough to force repeated upward revisions.

Where $2,200 Sits Against the Consensus

JPMorgan’s call is not merely at the top of the range. It is a clear outlier.

• Consensus average: Platforms tracking 32–44 analysts report mean price targets between roughly $1,590 and $1,669 .
• Next-highest targets: Bernstein sits at $1,971, RBC Capital at $1,700, and several European desks (UBS, Citi, Deutsche Bank) hold targets of €1,600–€1,700, which translates to approximately $1,870–$1,990 depending on the exchange rate .
• The gap: JPMorgan’s $2,200 is roughly 32–38% above the average consensus and more than $200 above the closest competitor. It assumes a growth path that the rest of the Street has not yet priced in.

The Earnings Engine: 2025 Results and 2026 Trajectory

FY 2025 revenue reached €32.7 billion, up roughly 16% year-over-year, with net income of €9.6 billion and a gross margin of 52.8% . Earnings per share rose approximately 28% to €24.71 .

Q1 2026 delivered a 13% revenue increase year-over-year to €8.8 billion and a 17% net income rise to €2.8 billion . Consensus projections now point to EPS of approximately €29.65 for the full year 2026, a roughly 20% jump from 2025 .

The AI Sales Outlook: Why 2026 Looks Different

ASML’s management has been explicit: 2026 growth is “largely driven by a significant increase in EUV sales and growth in our installed base business” . The raised €36–€40 billion revenue range implies up to 22% top-line growth from 2025 levels, with AI chip demand pulling orders forward across both logic and memory segments .

The shift is structural, not cyclical. Memory makers are adopting EUV lithography at a pace that was not anticipated even a year ago, and logic customers are expanding capacity to meet insatiable AI accelerator demand. JPMorgan’s $2,200 target is effectively a bet that this dual demand wave will compress ASML’s growth into a steeper, longer curve than most analysts currently project.