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Why the Strait of Hormuz Disruption Is Hitting Gulf Exporters Hardest
The World Bank projects output across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan will contract 2.1% in 2026, after 3.3% growth in 2025, as Hormuz disruption restricts energy exports and disrupts trade. Gulf exporters are bearing the largest costs: the GCC is forecast to contract 4.3%, while oil importin...
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Key takeaways
- The World Bank projects output across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan will contract 2.1% in 2026, after 3.3% growth in 2025, as Hormuz disruption restricts energy exports and disrupts trade.
- Gulf exporters are bearing the largest costs: the GCC is forecast to contract 4.3%, while oil importing economies are comparatively resilient.
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openai.comCreate a landscape editorial hero image for this Studio Global article: What does the World Bank’s October 6, 2026 regional economic update, “From Divide to Opportunity: AI, Jobs, and Growth,” say about how the I. Article summary: The World Bank’s October 6 update says the Iran conflict has turned an energy-price shock into an **export and trade shock** for the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan. With the Strait of Hormuz restrict. Topic tags: general, general web, education. Style: premium digital editorial illustration, source-backed research mood, clean composition, high detail, modern web publication hero. Use reference image context only for broad subject, composition, and topical grounding; do not copy the exact image. Avoid: logos, brand marks, copyrighted characters, real person likenesses, fake screenshots, UI text, readable text, watermarks, charts with fake nu
The Strait of Hormuz disruption has changed the usual economics of an energy shock. Instead of simply gaining from higher energy prices, Gulf exporters are struggling to ship oil and gas to market. The World Bank projects that output across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan (MENAAP) will contract by 2.1% in 2026, following 3.3% growth in 2025. 2
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Why Gulf energy exporters are hit hardest
The World Bank says the conflict and disruption to the Strait of Hormuz have imposed especially high costs on Gulf oil and gas exporters, whose trade depends on the route. With export volumes constrained, producers lose output and government revenue even as energy costs rise. That makes this shock different from earlier energy-price increases that often benefited oil exporters. 2
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The forecast reflects the scale of the pressure: Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies are projected to contract by 4.3% in 2026, a 5.7-percentage-point downgrade from the Bank’s April estimate. 5
The trade shock reaches beyond oil and gas
The effects are not limited to energy cargoes. The World Bank also points to setbacks in tourism, aviation and logistics, while uncertainty weighs on business sentiment and financial markets. These wider disruptions spread the shock through regional economies, including businesses and services that do not produce hydrocarbons. 9
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The burden is uneven. Developing oil importers have been comparatively resilient, with the Bank’s regional outlook page projecting their growth to rise from 3.9% in 2025 to 4.3% in 2026. That relative resilience does not mean importers are untouched by higher costs; it means they are less directly exposed to the loss of Gulf energy exports through Hormuz. 15
Any 2027 rebound depends on recovery in trade and production
The World Bank says regional growth excluding Iran could rebound to 7.8% in 2027 if the conflict eases by the end of 2026. The outlook depends in part on hydrocarbon production and exports recovering; it is a conditional scenario, not a firm timetable for reopening the Strait. 4
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The central takeaway is that a price rise alone does not help exporters if they cannot deliver their products. For the region’s near-term outlook, restoring energy flows and broader trade is crucial—and uncertainty about when that can happen remains a risk. 2
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The World Bank projects output across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan will contract 2.1% in 2026, after 3.3% growth in 2025, as Hormuz disruption restricts energy exports and disrupts trade.
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The World Bank projects output across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan will contract 2.1% in 2026, after 3.3% growth in 2025, as Hormuz disruption restricts energy exports and disrupts trade. Gulf exporters are bearing the largest costs: the GCC is forecast to contract 4.3%, while oil importing economies are comparatively resilient.