Whale Accumulation in Bitcoin, Ethereum & XRP: Is a Bear Market Bottom Confirmed?

Ethereum (ETH): Wallets holding over 100,000 ETH have added approximately 1.8 million Ether since mid-2025, setting new historical accumulation records.

XRP: Average spot order sizes remained in CryptoQuant's 'big whale' category while XRP traded between $1 and $1.20.

The Caveat: The trend has not been uniform. Earlier in 2026 (May), CryptoQuant warned that whale accumulation had stalled or turned negative, mirroring the conditions of March 2022 before a deeper downturn. The August report shows a re-acceleration, but it is an uneven pattern.

The Key Metrics: Why a Bottom Hasn't Been Confirmed

CryptoQuant uses a specific set of on-chain metrics to determine whether a market bottom is structural or just a temporary bounce. Here are the readings for Bitcoin, which the firm tracks most closely:

The Bottom Line from CryptoQuant: A confirmed bottom has not yet formed. Prices may still fall further. However, the combination of whale accumulation, prices near the realized cost basis (~$53,600), and neutral-to-passive CVD puts the market in a 'late-stage bear' zone rather than a confirmed reversal.

10x Research's Macro-Focused Counterpoint

While CryptoQuant focuses on on-chain activity, Markus Thielen's 10x Research offers a complementary analysis that leans more heavily on macroeconomic factors. Their analysis suggests we may not be out of the woods yet:

• Price-Based Bottom Trigger: 10x Research suggests a monthly close above $63,000 in August 2026 could confirm a bear-market bottom. This is a technical/price-based trigger, not an on-chain one.
• The Macro Headwind: Thielen warns that rising U.S. Treasury yields could force the Federal Reserve to raise rates in September, which would be a headwind for all risk assets, including Bitcoin.
• The USD Factor: In earlier reports (June 2026), 10x Research argued that traders have misinterpreted global money supply and liquidity indicators, and that USD strength is actually one of the key factors determining Bitcoin's bottom window. A strengthening dollar historically correlates with BTC downside.
• Price Forecast: 10x Research previously forecast a possible drop to ~$55,000, with a bottom window between late August and October 2026.

The Key Difference: 10x Research leans on macro factors (USD strength, Treasury yields, Fed policy) to time the bottom, whereas CryptoQuant relies primarily on on-chain cost basis and whale flow metrics. Both firms agree that the bear market appears late-cycle, but neither has declared a confirmed bottom.