Apple’s Foldable iPhone Could Add $14 Billion in December Revenue, Morgan Stanley Says

Apple’s first foldable iPhone could be a premium revenue engine even if customers struggle to find one at launch. Morgan Stanley estimates the rumored device could contribute about $14 billion in Apple’s December quarter, with strong demand offset by production of only 7–8 million units in the second half of 2026. 467

That makes Apple’s September 9 event important for two reasons: it could introduce the company’s first foldable phone, and it will be the first major iPhone launch under CEO John Ternus. Analysts have described the transition as Apple’s most consequential iPhone form-factor change since the iPhone X, but the product details remain rumors until Apple makes them official. 347

What Morgan Stanley expects from the foldable iPhone

Morgan Stanley’s thesis is less about mass-market volume than about premium pricing and revenue concentration. The bank reportedly expects:

• 7–8 million units built in the second half of 2026
• As many as 20 million units across the first full product cycle
• Shipments beginning in October or early November
• About $14 billion in December-quarter revenue

Those estimates imply a deliberately constrained first launch. Reports indicate that memory availability could be the main bottleneck, with component supply—not customer interest—limiting how many devices Apple can produce. 467

The rumored name is iPhone Ultra, but Apple has not confirmed that branding. A foldable iPhone price of roughly $2,000–$2,500 has also circulated in analyst and media reports; however, the available evidence does not establish that range as Morgan Stanley’s official forecast. 41

Why the September 9 event matters

Apple has confirmed a product event for September 9, 2026, at its Cupertino headquarters. Invitations use the tagline “Surprise and Shine,” and the event is scheduled for the Steve Jobs Theater. Analysts expect new iPhones and Apple Watches, including Apple’s first folding phone. 35

The event also marks the start of a new leadership era. John Ternus became Apple CEO on September 1 after Tim Cook’s 15-year tenure, with Cook remaining executive chairman. 114

Morgan Stanley has characterized the launch as potentially Apple’s most significant iPhone event since the iPhone X. The reason is not simply a new processor or camera: a foldable would change the basic shape and use case of Apple’s flagship product. 248

Expected iPhone lineup: premium models first

Current reporting points to a premium-focused September lineup consisting of:

• The rumored foldable iPhone, or “iPhone Ultra”
• iPhone 18 Pro
• iPhone 18 Pro Max

Reports suggest the standard iPhone 18 could arrive in early 2027 rather than at the September event. The iPhone Air 2 has also been reported as a later product, but these launch plans are not confirmed by Apple. 71719

Other products—including new Apple Watch models and AirPods—have been mentioned in event previews. The available evidence supports expectations for Apple Watches but does not independently verify every reported model name or the claimed absence of an iPhone 18e. 3

Higher iPhone prices may be part of the story

The foldable is not the only potential pricing shock. Morgan Stanley expects some of the largest like-for-like iPhone price increases in years, driven in part by higher NAND and DRAM costs. Reports tied to the bank’s outlook suggest that Pro-model prices could rise by more than $200 year over year. 26

Separate analyst estimates put the possible iPhone 18 Pro starting price at $1,349–$1,399, compared with a reported $1,099 starting price for the previous Pro model. Other analysis has described $1,299 as a possible lower-end scenario, but not the most likely estimate. Apple has not announced pricing. 202431

The broader implication is that Apple may be testing how much pricing power its premium customers will accept while absorbing higher component costs. Morgan Stanley’s view is that higher prices could support revenue and earnings, provided demand remains resilient. 3842

Reported chip and modem upgrades

Rumor coverage also points to a high-end hardware refresh. The iPhone 18 Pro models are expected to use an A20 Pro chip built on TSMC’s 2-nanometer process, while reports say Apple could introduce its own C2 modem in at least some models. 1929

The A20 Pro is widely framed in reporting as an important upgrade for performance and on-device AI, but Apple has not confirmed the chip, modem configuration, memory capacity, or AI capabilities. Those details should be treated as expectations rather than specifications.

Morgan Stanley’s Apple investment view

Morgan Stanley maintains an Overweight rating on Apple and a $360 price target, according to reporting on analyst Erik Woodring’s outlook. 3341

The bullish case depends on three related factors: Apple’s ability to charge premium prices, sustained demand for the Pro and foldable models, and its ability to secure enough memory and other components to meet demand. The central risk is that supply constraints could limit near-term sales even if the product generates substantial interest. 46

Coverage also describes Apple shares as potentially stronger ahead of launch events and more vulnerable on the launch day itself if later earnings estimates do not rise. That is an analyst-market characterization, not a dependable trading rule. Investors will ultimately need to judge the launch by pricing, availability, demand, and the effect on Apple’s forecasts—not by the event-day share move alone. 41

The bottom line

Morgan Stanley’s forecast presents Apple’s foldable iPhone as a high-price, low-initial-volume product with outsized revenue potential. The estimate of roughly $14 billion in December-quarter revenue is significant, but it depends on a product Apple has not yet officially announced and a supply chain that may remain constrained.

The September 9 event should clarify the questions that rumors cannot: whether Apple is actually ready to enter the foldable market, what it will call the device, how much it will cost, when customers can buy it, and whether the company can turn scarcity into durable premium demand.