McKinsey Projects 11 Million U.S. Workers May Need New Occupations by 2035

McKinsey estimates that roughly 11 million U.S. workers—about 7% of current employees—may need to move into different occupations by 2035. Its range is 6 million to 16 million, depending on how quickly automation is adopted and how it affects labor demand. The estimate is about occupational transitions, not a forecast that every affected worker will lose a job or remain unemployed. 17

How fast could workers need to move?

The report’s central estimate would mean a faster pace of occupational switching than the historical comparison cited in coverage of the study: about 215,000 workers a year. Bloomberg reports that the annual pace could roughly triple. That comparison signals the scale of the potential adjustment, but it does not mean transitions will happen evenly each year or that the projection is certain. 1

Which workers and jobs are most exposed?

McKinsey identifies office and administrative support, retail and sales, and transportation and logistics among the areas where declining employment is concentrated. Its report summary says more than 70% of declining employment could be in the bottom two wage quintiles. This points to a distributional challenge: workers in lower-paid roles may be more affected by shrinking demand, though the projection does not mean every job in these fields will disappear. 7

Why a transition may mean retraining—or lower pay

Changing occupations can require more than moving a worker into an open role. The skills needed may differ, and a new job may not preserve a worker’s income. A secondary account of the report says only 14% of projected transitions would lead to a growing occupation with limited retraining and no income loss. In other words, for many transitions, retraining, an income setback, or both may be part of the challenge. 28

Job changes are not the same as net job losses

The projection focuses on workers who may need to leave declining occupations. It should not be read as a simple count of jobs erased by AI. Forbes’ account of the study says its scenario includes about 36 million jobs eliminated by AI and automation by 2035, alongside more than 40 million jobs created through growth in the AI value chain and the broader economy. Those estimates describe modeled changes across the labor market, not a guarantee that displaced workers will readily fill new roles. 19

What uncertainty—and current company data—adds

McKinsey’s range of 6 million to 16 million reflects uncertainty about adoption and its effect on labor demand. A separate McKinsey survey offers a near-term snapshot, not a test of the 2035 projection: 32% of respondents in 2025 anticipated AI-related head-count reductions, while 14% reported reductions a year later; two-thirds reported little or no AI-related change in total employment over that period. The survey suggests that expected and observed near-term workforce effects can differ, but it does not settle how jobs will change over the next decade. 27

The practical challenge is building routes into new work

The study’s emphasis is on skills and pathways into future jobs. The sources available here do not establish a specific government program or funding commitment. Public retraining or income support may be discussed as possible responses, but they should not be mistaken for measures announced as part of the projection. 7

The clearest takeaway is that McKinsey forecasts substantial movement between occupations, with lower-wage workers and several large occupational groups facing particular exposure. The size and timing of that movement remain uncertain; the central question is whether workers can reach growing roles without prohibitive retraining demands or income losses.