AnswersPublished21 sources
CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Signal: Is the Bear Cycle Ending?
CryptoQuant’s September 17 analysis was cautiously bullish: Bitcoin UTXOs held at a loss reportedly fell from roughly 54% to 27.1%, a shift the analyst associated with bear market endings. The bullish on chain signal faced meaningful headwinds: the Senate’s CLARITY Act procedural vote failed 49–50, U.S.
Published byEdited with GPT-5.6 TerraImages generated with GPT Image 2
Research answer
Key takeaways
- CryptoQuant’s September 17 analysis was cautiously bullish: Bitcoin UTXOs held at a loss reportedly fell from roughly 54% to 27.1%, a shift the analyst associated with bear market endings.
- The bullish on chain signal faced meaningful headwinds: the Senate’s CLARITY Act procedural vote failed 49–50, U.S.
- The key follow through signals were a sustained move above $79,800, stable or improving UTXO profitability, renewed ETF inflows, and an absence of renewed loss driven selling.
AI Prompt
openai.comCreate a landscape editorial hero image for this Studio Global article: What does CryptoQuant’s September 17 analysis suggest about whether Bitcoin is ending its bear cycle and entering a bullish phase, consideri. Article summary: CryptoQuant’s September 17 reading is cautiously bullish: the fall in loss-making Bitcoin UTXOs from about 54% to 27.1% suggests that broad unrealized-loss stress has eased, making a return to a full bear-market phase le. Topic tags: general, general web. Style: premium digital editorial illustration, source-backed research mood, clean composition, high detail, modern web publication hero. Use reference image context only for broad subject, composition, and topical grounding; do not copy the exact image. Avoid: logos, brand marks, copyrighted characters, real person likenesses, fake screenshots, UI text, readable text, watermarks, charts with fake numbers, clic
CryptoQuant’s September 17 assessment pointed to lower odds of Bitcoin returning to a full bear-market regime, rather than declaring a new bull cycle complete. The basis was a sharp improvement in on-chain profitability: the reported share of Bitcoin UTXOs at a loss fell from roughly 54% to 27.1%. CryptoQuant contributor Crypto Dan viewed declines of this scale as a pattern that has historically appeared near the end of bearish phases. 6
12
Why loss-making UTXOs matter
A UTXO, or unspent transaction output, is an individual spendable unit of Bitcoin recorded on the blockchain. CryptoQuant’s loss metric measures the share of UTXO value that is underwater by comparing prices when coins were created and spent. 16
When fewer UTXOs are below their cost basis, unrealized-loss pressure across the network has eased. That does not guarantee prices will rise, but it indicates that Bitcoin’s cost-basis structure is healthier than when a much larger share of coins was held at a loss.
Crypto Dan’s historical argument was specifically that similarly large improvements have coincided with transitions out of bear-market conditions, rather than only short-lived relief rallies. This is an historical observation, not a rule that determines the next move. 12
13
The price zone that could validate—or challenge—the thesis
At the time of the analysis, Bitcoin was trading near $76,600, between two on-chain cost-basis levels:
- Around $71,300: CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost described this as the active-supply cost basis—the average acquisition cost of Bitcoin actively circulating in the market. It was identified as potential support.
1
2
- Around $79,800: The invested-capital cost basis was viewed as resistance. Coins that had been underwater may be sold when their holders return to breakeven, creating overhead supply.
A durable move and sustained trading above roughly $79,800 would make the constructive on-chain interpretation more credible, because it would indicate that the market had absorbed potential breakeven selling. Rejection at that level, or a decisive loss of the $71,300 area, would weaken the case that the market structure had turned decisively bullish.
Why the signal was still only cautiously bullish
The on-chain improvement arrived alongside several adverse market inputs.
The U.S. Senate failed to advance the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act in a 49–50 procedural vote, below the 60 votes needed to proceed. Reports also showed U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs registering about $450 million in net outflows following the setback. 18
19
30
In addition, the Federal Reserve raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, its first increase since July 2023. 21
22 Tighter monetary policy can be a difficult backdrop for risk-sensitive assets, although it does not by itself settle Bitcoin’s longer-term cycle direction.
These events did not negate CryptoQuant’s on-chain thesis. They did mean that an improving profitability metric needed confirmation from price behavior and demand rather than being treated as a standalone buy signal.
What to monitor next
1. Bitcoin’s behavior around the two cost bases
The most immediate test was whether BTC could maintain support near $71,300 and eventually establish itself above $79,800. The former would help preserve the recovery structure; the latter would suggest that breakeven selling had been absorbed. 1
2
2. Whether the UTXO loss share stays contained
The initial improvement matters most if it persists. A renewed sharp rise in the proportion of UTXOs at a loss would signal that price weakness was again spreading through the holder base. CryptoQuant’s metric is designed to track the value share of supply in profit or loss. 16
3. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows
A return to sustained net inflows would be consistent with improving institutional demand. Continued large redemptions would be a counterweight to the constructive on-chain reading. The reported single-day outflow of roughly $450 million showed how quickly demand conditions could deteriorate. 19
30
4. Realized-loss and exchange-flow behavior
Investors should also watch whether holders are sending more Bitcoin to exchanges and realizing losses. A rise in those stress indicators would be more consistent with distribution or capitulation than with a stable transition toward a stronger market phase.
5. Policy and liquidity conditions
The outlook for U.S. crypto market-structure legislation, Federal Reserve guidance and broader financial conditions remained relevant. The failed Senate vote and rate increase illustrated that on-chain trends can coexist with macro and regulatory pressures. 18
21
Bottom line
CryptoQuant’s September 17 analysis supported a probabilistic shift away from bear-market conditions, driven by the steep decline in loss-making Bitcoin UTXOs. It did not establish a risk-free or fully confirmed bull cycle.
The bullish case would gain credibility if UTXO profitability remained resilient, ETF demand recovered and Bitcoin held $71,300 before breaking and sustaining above $79,800. Renewed loss stress, persistent ETF outflows and a breakdown below the active-supply cost basis would challenge that conclusion. 1
2
6
Studio Global AI
Continue your research
This page includes a source-backed answer you can continue inside Studio Global.
People also ask
What is the short answer to "CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Signal: Is the Bear Cycle Ending?"?
CryptoQuant’s September 17 analysis was cautiously bullish: Bitcoin UTXOs held at a loss reportedly fell from roughly 54% to 27.1%, a shift the analyst associated with bear market endings.
What are the key points to validate first?
CryptoQuant’s September 17 analysis was cautiously bullish: Bitcoin UTXOs held at a loss reportedly fell from roughly 54% to 27.1%, a shift the analyst associated with bear market endings. The bullish on chain signal faced meaningful headwinds: the Senate’s CLARITY Act procedural vote failed 49–50, U.S.
What should I do next in practice?
The key follow through signals were a sustained move above $79,800, stable or improving UTXO profitability, renewed ETF inflows, and an absence of renewed loss driven selling.
Sources
kcex.comBitcoin Bear Market May Be Losing Its Grip as UTXOs Move Into ...
cryptobriefing.comCryptoQuant analysis suggests bear cycle return is unlikely despite macro headwinds
userguide.cryptoquant.comProfit and Loss (Supply)
news.cnyes.com分析：比特幣重返熊市週期可能性降低，UTXO虧損佔比大幅下降 | 鉅亨網 - 快訊