CoinShares: Why Public Bitcoin Miners Are Pivoting to AI and HPC

Public Bitcoin miners are increasingly being valued not simply for hash rate, but for something scarcer: grid-connected, permitted power capacity. CoinShares’ Q2 2026 mining report frames the move into artificial intelligence and high-performance computing (HPC) as a relative-return decision that a Bitcoin rebound may not easily undo—especially after sites, capital and customer contracts have been committed. 217

The economic case: more profit from the same megawatt

CoinShares estimates annual profit of about $1.5 million per MW for AI/HPC infrastructure, compared with roughly $0.5 million per MW for Bitcoin mining. That implied threefold advantage is the report’s core explanation for the pivot: both businesses need substantial power infrastructure, but AI/HPC can offer a more valuable use for that capacity. 10

The comparison arrived during a particularly difficult quarter for mining. CoinShares reported that the weighted-average ex-tax cash cost to produce one Bitcoin among listed miners was approximately $75,500 in Q2 2026, while Bitcoin ended the quarter at $58,400. On that aggregate measure, the listed sector was below cash breakeven. 17

Hash price—miner revenue per unit of hash power—also averaged an all-time low of $27.7 per PH/s/day in June, according to CoinShares. The firm said the network had experienced its first six-month hash-rate decline since China’s mining ban, with hash rate roughly 50% below trend. 17

Mining conditions improved modestly after Bitcoin rebounded, but CoinShares’ conclusion was that a recovery in Bitcoin price alone was unlikely to reverse the AI transition at operators that have already committed their infrastructure elsewhere. 2

Why the pivot is hard to reverse

The distinction is not just between two revenue opportunities. Bitcoin mining revenue changes with Bitcoin’s price, network difficulty and hash price. In contrast, AI/HPC infrastructure can be supported by contracted, multi-year customer revenue. 12

Those commitments can be substantial. CoinShares has highlighted Core Scientific’s 12-year hosting agreements with CoreWeave, worth $10.2 billion in total contract value, and IREN’s five-year $9.7 billion AI-cloud contract with Microsoft. 1

Changing course can also carry immediate costs. The report cited Core Scientific’s payment of nearly $42 million to cancel an agreement for approximately 15 EH/s of next-generation mining hardware. That example illustrates why even efficient mining equipment may no longer be the preferred deployment of capital when a site is being converted for compute customers. 2

CoinShares also identifies a market incentive: companies with contracted AI or HPC capacity command a valuation premium, although it cautions that this premium depends on turning contracted capacity into live, revenue-producing operations. 17

Which miners are leaving Bitcoin mining?

CoinShares reported that Keel Infrastructure, formerly Bitfarms, shut down its Bitcoin mining operations as it prepared sites for HPC development. CoinShares later said Keel had completed the decommissioning of its U.S. mining operations. 1718

The Q2 report also described IREN and Cipher as companies transitioning away from mining capacity. CoinShares estimated that at least 35 EH/s could leave the publicly listed miner cohort through these transitions. 2

Not every company is making an immediate, complete exit. Core Scientific’s cancelled hardware order and its site-conversion plans are better understood as part of a hybrid transition: mining can continue temporarily while capacity is repurposed, rather than serving as the long-term growth destination. 2

Who could still benefit from a sustained Bitcoin rally?

The available report material does not provide a definitive, named list of miners that CoinShares considers fully flexible. The practical dividing line is clear, however:

• Flexible miners retain uncommitted power capacity and mining hardware, so stronger and sustained mining economics could justify expanding hash rate.
• Committed AI/HPC operators have capacity tied up in customer contracts or physical data-center conversions, making a return to mining more difficult even if Bitcoin rises.

That means a Bitcoin rally could still improve cash flow for miners that remain exposed to hash price. But it is less likely to pull already-contracted AI/HPC infrastructure back into mining. 12

The key caveat: contracts are not operating revenue

CoinShares does not present the AI/HPC shift as risk-free. A signed backlog must be delivered, energized and brought into service before it becomes revenue. The investment case for AI-converting miners therefore depends not only on the headline value of contracts, but also on execution: construction, power delivery, customer deployment and successful ramp-up. 17

The report’s broader message is that public Bitcoin miners are becoming power-infrastructure businesses with two possible uses for their capacity. In Q2 2026, CoinShares found AI/HPC offered a meaningfully more attractive economic use of that scarce power—and the contracts now being signed make that choice increasingly durable. 1017