Bitcoin Bear Market May Be Nearing an Exit—but Bitfinex Says One Condition Is Missing

Bitfinex’s August 18 Bitfinex Alpha report is cautiously constructive on Bitcoin, but it does not declare the bear market over. Its view is that two of three conditions for a durable recovery have been met; the missing condition is a sustained flow of capital from technology hardware and artificial-intelligence infrastructure stocks into digital assets.

The two macro conditions already in place

Bitfinex identified two supportive developments:

1. Expectations of interest-rate cuts.
2. Easier financial conditions.

The second condition was supported by softer U.S. inflation, which eased from 3.50% in June to 3.40% in July, falling short-term Treasury yields, and strong equity performance.

That backdrop is favorable for risk assets in principle. However, Bitfinex’s analysis suggests that improved macro conditions have not yet translated into sufficient demand for Bitcoin itself.

The missing catalyst: capital rotation into crypto

The report’s decisive test is whether investors begin reallocating money from technology hardware and AI infrastructure equities into digital assets. Bitfinex says that rotation could provide the demand needed to turn a prolonged consolidation into a sustained recovery.

This is an important distinction: favorable rates and liquidity may create the conditions for a rally, but they do not guarantee that crypto will receive the next wave of capital. Until that happens, Bitcoin remains vulnerable to continued selling and low participation.

Bitcoin remains stuck below $70,000

Bitcoin had traded below $70,000 for more than two months, largely moving within a $62,000–$65,000 range. Bitfinex characterized the compressed volatility, trading activity, and liquidity as resembling a mid-to-late bear-market environment.

Thin liquidity can make that range deceptive. With fewer buyers and sellers supporting the market, relatively modest flows can produce sharp moves in either direction. A breakout would therefore need to be supported by real demand rather than merely a brief move above resistance.

ETF outflows point to weak near-term demand

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $385 million in net outflows during the week through August 14, reversing about $865 million of inflows in the previous week.

Those figures matter because ETF flows are one visible measure of institutional demand. Persistent redemptions would make it harder for Bitcoin to establish a sustained move higher, particularly while price remains near the upper end of its recent range.

Corporate Bitcoin-treasury activity also weakened. Strategy had slowed its Bitcoin purchases, while broader corporate-treasury inflows had lost momentum. Stablecoin supply remained below its May peak, another indication that the pool of readily deployable crypto liquidity was not expanding.

Bitfinex’s two possible outcomes

The report presents a conditional outlook rather than a firm price prediction:

• Bullish scenario: If capital rotates from AI and technology hardware into digital assets, Bitcoin could reclaim and establish itself above $70,000, supporting an exit from the bearish phase.
• Bearish scenario: If ETF outflows, weaker corporate-treasury demand, and reduced stablecoin liquidity continue, Bitcoin could fall toward approximately $57,000.

What the report actually says about the bear market

The clearest reading is that Bitcoin may be in the late stages of its bearish phase, but the market has not yet received confirmation of a durable trend change. Two macro conditions are supportive; crypto-specific demand is still the missing link.

For investors, the key signals to watch are therefore not just interest-rate expectations or equity performance. They are whether ETF flows turn positive, corporate Bitcoin buyers return, stablecoin liquidity recovers, and capital begins moving from AI and technology stocks into crypto. Until those signals improve, Bitfinex’s conclusion remains cautiously hopeful rather than decisively bullish.