XRP Whales Are Pulling Millions Off Binance — Here's What On-Chain Data Shows

The withdrawal activity has driven Binance's XRP exchange supply ratio to 0.03 as of August 3–4, down from roughly 0.026 in July and marking a five-month low for the platform's XRP holdings . A declining exchange supply ratio typically signals reduced sell pressure because fewer tokens are immediately available on the order book .

The picture on Coinbase differs. Whale-scale withdrawals there doubled from roughly 10% in mid-June to 25.7% by July 1, according to CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha . While still significant, the Coinbase whale share remains notably lower than Binance's, suggesting a divergence in large-holder behavior between the two exchanges . Shark-scale wallets (100,000 to 1 million XRP) accounted for 55.8% of Coinbase's outflows, while whales represented another 15% .

Price Outlook and Key Technical Levels

XRP traded around $1.07–$1.09 as of August 5, sitting in a multi-week descending channel with a relative strength index (RSI) near 41 — indicating bearish momentum below the 50-day moving average .

Futures open interest has contracted to $897 million as of August 4, down from roughly $1.14 billion in May, reflecting cooling speculative activity . Binance accounts for 55.3% of the OI decline .

AI model forecasts cluster around $1.10. ChatGPT projects XRP will close August near $1.10 within a probable range of $0.95–$1.25 . Other models including DeepSeek Chat, Gemini 3 Flash, and Grok 4.1 expect modest declines to $1.03–$1.05 . The broad AI consensus range is approximately $1.05–$1.25 .

Token Unlocks and Ripple Escrow

XRP entered August 2026 at $1.06, down roughly 43% from its January peak of $2.41, with Ripple executing its tightest escrow unlock yet . The price found an intraday floor at $1.0480 before consolidating around $1.08, posting a +1.93% month-to-date return as of August 3 . The base-case scenario for August targets $1.00–$1.18, near $1.10 if Bitcoin stays above $58,000 and macro conditions align .

Flare's FXRP Lending — A Utility Boost with Caveats

Flare announced that FXRP, its representation of XRP, has been approved as collateral in an isolated FXRP/RLUSD lending market on Morpho Blue via Sentora's RLUSD Main vault on Ethereum . The integration lets holders borrow RLUSD without selling their XRP exposure . At roughly $1.06, XRP would need a 4.6x move to reach the $4.90 target some bullish analysts cite . Analysts caution that deeper USDT/USDC liquidity and bridge security reviews are needed before DeFi adoption can drive sustained price gains .

What Kalshi Prediction Markets Say

Kalshi traders currently assign a 59% probability that XRP will trade below $1.00 at some point before the end of 2026, reflecting a bearish near-term tilt . Robinhood prediction markets price roughly 70% odds of a sub-$1.00 trade in 2026 and a 53% chance of breaking $0.80 .

For year-end, Kalshi's aggregated market expectations forecast XRP to finish 2026 around $1.28 . This implies a moderate recovery from current levels but remains well below the $2.41 January high and far from the $4 mark that Kalshi traders give just a 2% chance of reaching . Polymarket's year-end market gives XRP a 23% chance of touching $3 at any point before January 1, 2027 .

The combined picture from on-chain flows and prediction markets suggests that while large holders are withdrawing supply from exchanges — a structurally bullish signal over the long term — the market's near-term expectations remain cautious, with the $1.00 support level the most closely watched line in the sand.