The withdrawal activity has driven Binance's XRP exchange supply ratio to 0.03 as of August 3–4, down from roughly 0.026 in July and marking a five-month low for the platform's XRP holdings . A declining exchange supply ratio typically signals reduced sell pressure because fewer tokens are immediately available on the order book .

The picture on Coinbase differs. Whale-scale withdrawals there doubled from roughly 10% in mid-June to 25.7% by July 1, according to CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha . While still significant, the Coinbase whale share remains notably lower than Binance's, suggesting a divergence in large-holder behavior between the two exchanges . Shark-scale wallets (100,000 to 1 million XRP) accounted for 55.8% of Coinbase's outflows, while whales represented another 15% .

Price Outlook and Key Technical Levels

XRP traded around $1.07–$1.09 as of August 5, sitting in a multi-week descending channel with a relative strength index (RSI) near 41 — indicating bearish momentum below the 50-day moving average .

Futures open interest has contracted to $897 million as of August 4, down from roughly $1.14 billion in May, reflecting cooling speculative activity . Binance accounts for 55.3% of the OI decline .

AI model forecasts cluster around $1.10. ChatGPT projects XRP will close August near $1.10 within a probable range of $0.95–$1.25 . Other models including DeepSeek Chat, Gemini 3 Flash, and Grok 4.1 expect modest declines to $1.03–$1.05 . The broad AI consensus range is approximately $1.05–$1.25 .

Token Unlocks and Ripple Escrow

XRP entered August 2026 at $1.06, down roughly 43% from its January peak of $2.41, with Ripple executing its tightest escrow unlock yet . The price found an intraday floor at $1.0480 before consolidating around $1.08, posting a +1.93% month-to-date return as of August 3 . The base-case scenario for August targets $1.00–$1.18, near $1.10 if Bitcoin stays above $58,000 and macro conditions align .

Flare's FXRP Lending — A Utility Boost with Caveats

Flare announced that FXRP, its representation of XRP, has been approved as collateral in an isolated FXRP/RLUSD lending market on Morpho Blue via Sentora's RLUSD Main vault on Ethereum . The integration lets holders borrow RLUSD without selling their XRP exposure . At roughly $1.06, XRP would need a 4.6x move to reach the $4.90 target some bullish analysts cite . Analysts caution that deeper USDT/USDC liquidity and bridge security reviews are needed before DeFi adoption can drive sustained price gains .

What Kalshi Prediction Markets Say

Kalshi traders currently assign a 59% probability that XRP will trade below $1.00 at some point before the end of 2026, reflecting a bearish near-term tilt . Robinhood prediction markets price roughly 70% odds of a sub-$1.00 trade in 2026 and a 53% chance of breaking $0.80 .

For year-end, Kalshi's aggregated market expectations forecast XRP to finish 2026 around $1.28 . This implies a moderate recovery from current levels but remains well below the $2.41 January high and far from the $4 mark that Kalshi traders give just a 2% chance of reaching . Polymarket's year-end market gives XRP a 23% chance of touching $3 at any point before January 1, 2027 .

The combined picture from on-chain flows and prediction markets suggests that while large holders are withdrawing supply from exchanges — a structurally bullish signal over the long term — the market's near-term expectations remain cautious, with the $1.00 support level the most closely watched line in the sand.

The withdrawal activity has driven Binance's XRP exchange supply ratio to 0.03 as of August 3–4, down from roughly 0.026 in July and marking a five-month low for the platform's XRP holdings . A declining exchange supply ratio typically signals reduced sell pressure because fewer tokens are immediately available on the order book .

The picture on Coinbase differs. Whale-scale withdrawals there doubled from roughly 10% in mid-June to 25.7% by July 1, according to CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha . While still significant, the Coinbase whale share remains notably lower than Binance's, suggesting a divergence in large-holder behavior between the two exchanges . Shark-scale wallets (100,000 to 1 million XRP) accounted for 55.8% of Coinbase's outflows, while whales represented another 15% .

Price Outlook and Key Technical Levels

XRP traded around $1.07–$1.09 as of August 5, sitting in a multi-week descending channel with a relative strength index (RSI) near 41 — indicating bearish momentum below the 50-day moving average .

Futures open interest has contracted to $897 million as of August 4, down from roughly $1.14 billion in May, reflecting cooling speculative activity . Binance accounts for 55.3% of the OI decline .

AI model forecasts cluster around $1.10. ChatGPT projects XRP will close August near $1.10 within a probable range of $0.95–$1.25 . Other models including DeepSeek Chat, Gemini 3 Flash, and Grok 4.1 expect modest declines to $1.03–$1.05 . The broad AI consensus range is approximately $1.05–$1.25 .

Token Unlocks and Ripple Escrow

XRP entered August 2026 at $1.06, down roughly 43% from its January peak of $2.41, with Ripple executing its tightest escrow unlock yet . The price found an intraday floor at $1.0480 before consolidating around $1.08, posting a +1.93% month-to-date return as of August 3 . The base-case scenario for August targets $1.00–$1.18, near $1.10 if Bitcoin stays above $58,000 and macro conditions align .

Flare's FXRP Lending — A Utility Boost with Caveats

Flare announced that FXRP, its representation of XRP, has been approved as collateral in an isolated FXRP/RLUSD lending market on Morpho Blue via Sentora's RLUSD Main vault on Ethereum . The integration lets holders borrow RLUSD without selling their XRP exposure . At roughly $1.06, XRP would need a 4.6x move to reach the $4.90 target some bullish analysts cite . Analysts caution that deeper USDT/USDC liquidity and bridge security reviews are needed before DeFi adoption can drive sustained price gains .

What Kalshi Prediction Markets Say

Kalshi traders currently assign a 59% probability that XRP will trade below $1.00 at some point before the end of 2026, reflecting a bearish near-term tilt . Robinhood prediction markets price roughly 70% odds of a sub-$1.00 trade in 2026 and a 53% chance of breaking $0.80 .

For year-end, Kalshi's aggregated market expectations forecast XRP to finish 2026 around $1.28 . This implies a moderate recovery from current levels but remains well below the $2.41 January high and far from the $4 mark that Kalshi traders give just a 2% chance of reaching . Polymarket's year-end market gives XRP a 23% chance of touching $3 at any point before January 1, 2027 .

The combined picture from on-chain flows and prediction markets suggests that while large holders are withdrawing supply from exchanges — a structurally bullish signal over the long term — the market's near-term expectations remain cautious, with the $1.00 support level the most closely watched line in the sand.