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IDC and Gartner Both Report a Sharp Q3 PC Shipment Decline
IDC estimates global PC shipments fell 20.1% year over year to 62.7 million in Q3 2026, while Gartner estimates a 22.4% drop to 55.4 million. In IDC’s figures, HP had the steepest decline among the five leading vendors at 30.9%; Apple and ASUS fell less than the market and gained share.
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Key takeaways
- IDC estimates global PC shipments fell 20.1% year over year to 62.7 million in Q3 2026, while Gartner estimates a 22.4% drop to 55.4 million.
- In IDC’s figures, HP had the steepest decline among the five leading vendors at 30.9%; Apple and ASUS fell less than the market and gained share.
- The estimates are preliminary, and the available reporting does not verify every proposed cause or strategy, including a fivefold Q2 DRAM cost increase.
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openai.comCreate a landscape editorial hero image for this Studio Global article: What do IDC’s and Gartner’s preliminary figures reveal about the global PC shipment downturn in the third quarter of 2026—including IDC’s 20. Article summary: IDC’s and Gartner’s preliminary estimates both show a severe Q3 2026 PC shipment downturn, although Gartner measures a larger decline and a lower total.[1][5] The available evidence supports the headline figures and rela. Topic tags: general, general web. Style: premium digital editorial illustration, source-backed research mood, clean composition, high detail, modern web publication hero. Use reference image context only for broad subject, composition, and topical grounding; do not copy the exact image. Avoid: logos, brand marks, copyrighted characters, real person likenesses, fake screenshots, UI text, readable text, watermarks, charts with fake numbers, clic
Two research firms put the scale of the Q3 2026 PC downturn above 20%. IDC estimates 62.7 million shipments, down 20.1% year over year; Gartner estimates 55.4 million, down 22.4%.1
2 Their totals are not interchangeable, but the direction is consistent: shipments fell sharply as the market faced supply constraints and higher memory and storage costs.
How steep was the decline?
IDC’s preliminary estimate is 15.8 million fewer shipments than in Q3 2025, when it counted 78.5 million. It also reports a 9.1% fall from Q2, an unusual reversal of the typical seasonal pattern in which Q3 is stronger.1
3 The year-over-year decline followed a 3.8% drop in Q2, making this a second consecutive year-over-year decline—not a second consecutive quarter-over-quarter contraction.
16
Gartner’s estimate is lower in total volume and larger in percentage decline: 55.4 million shipments, compared with 71.3 million a year earlier. Gartner described that volume as roughly on par with Q1 2023.2 The provided reporting does not explain precisely why IDC and Gartner’s estimates differ, so they should be compared as separate estimates rather than combined.
What the two firms say is weighing on the market
IDC-related coverage points to supply constraints and inventory vendors and channels brought forward earlier in the year ahead of expected memory-driven price increases. That stockpiling may have left less demand for shipments later in the year.1
4
Coverage of Gartner’s figures emphasizes rising memory and storage costs being passed through into higher PC prices, alongside buyers delaying replacement decisions.6
28 These accounts describe related pressures, but the available evidence does not establish a single cause for the downturn.
Some details in the broader explanation remain unverified. The supplied sources do not substantiate the specific claim that Q2 DRAM costs rose fivefold year over year, nor do they confirm that AI data-center demand or a shift to higher-priced PC configurations directly drove Q3 shipment results. Those claims should not be treated as established findings here.
IDC’s vendor figures: HP fell fastest, while Apple and ASUS gained share
IDC’s preliminary vendor figures show that every leading brand listed shipped fewer PCs year over year. Lenovo remained the largest by volume, while HP had the steepest decline among the five.9
| Vendor | Q3 shipments | Year-over-year change | Q3 market share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lenovo | 14.9 million | −22.6% | 23.8% |
| HP | 10.3 million | −30.9% | 16.5% |
| Dell | 7.6 million | −25.0% | 12.1% |
| Apple | 5.9 million | −11.3% | 9.5% |
| ASUS | 5.5 million | −8.6% | 8.7% |
Lenovo, HP, and Dell all declined faster than the market; reporting on IDC’s results says the three together lost 4.2 percentage points of share.9
21 Apple and ASUS also shipped fewer PCs, but their declines were smaller than the overall 20.1% fall, allowing both to gain share in IDC’s data.
9
Gartner’s vendor reporting also says Lenovo retained the lead and Apple gained 1.7 percentage points of share. Gartner’s figures put Apple’s shipment decline at 7.1%, the smallest among the vendors mentioned in that report.2
28 These are Gartner-specific results and should not be mixed with IDC’s vendor table.
What the results do—and do not—say about prices and the outlook
The reports support a picture of a market under pressure from weak shipments, constrained supply, inventory adjustments, and component costs. One account summarizing IDC’s outlook says any inventory-driven promotions may be limited, while prices could remain above 2025 levels into 2027.15 That points to the possibility of short-term discounts without a broad return to lower prices, but it is an outlook rather than a guarantee.
The available sources do not verify the claims that HP is deliberately prioritizing higher-value PCs to offset component costs, that Samsung is projected to post 107.4 trillion won in Q3 operating profit, or that businesses are delaying upgrades specifically because cloud-based AI reduces the need for new local hardware. Nor do they establish a precise economy-wide forecast through 2027. The clearest supported conclusion is narrower: both research firms report a severe Q3 shipment decline, while their preliminary estimates differ in scale and the detailed causes remain only partly documented.
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What is the short answer to "IDC and Gartner Both Report a Sharp Q3 PC Shipment Decline"?
IDC estimates global PC shipments fell 20.1% year over year to 62.7 million in Q3 2026, while Gartner estimates a 22.4% drop to 55.4 million.
What are the key points to validate first?
IDC estimates global PC shipments fell 20.1% year over year to 62.7 million in Q3 2026, while Gartner estimates a 22.4% drop to 55.4 million. In IDC’s figures, HP had the steepest decline among the five leading vendors at 30.9%; Apple and ASUS fell less than the market and gained share.
What should I do next in practice?
The estimates are preliminary, and the available reporting does not verify every proposed cause or strategy, including a fivefold Q2 DRAM cost increase.