Budanov Warns of Winter War as Moscow Says Peace Talks Are on a ‘Deep Pause’

The latest statements from Kyiv and Moscow point to a war that is likely to continue through the coming winter rather than move quickly toward a ceasefire. Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office, called a near-term end unrealistic and said Ukraine needs to mobilize at least 30,000 people every month. 114 Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, meanwhile, described peace negotiations as being on a “deep pause,” with no new ideas emerging. 538

What Budanov said about the war’s timeline

Budanov said it would be unrealistic to expect the war to end soon and indicated that fighting would continue through winter. His assessment was paired with a force-generation requirement: Ukraine cannot mobilize fewer than 30,000 people per month if it is to sustain its defense, according to reporting on his remarks. 114

That figure is not a prediction of how many people will necessarily be drafted in every month. It is a stated requirement from a senior Ukrainian official and reflects the scale of personnel pressure facing Kyiv as the conflict continues. Reporting also described mobilization as a politically and socially difficult issue inside Ukraine. 14

Prisoner exchanges remain the main active channel

Budanov said interaction between Kyiv and Moscow is currently focused largely on prisoner exchanges, with another exchange expected soon. These contacts are humanitarian in character and do not amount to a broader political settlement. 38

The distinction matters: communication has not disappeared, but the available channel is narrow. The supplied reporting describes the two sides as able to address limited issues such as exchanges, while broader questions remain blocked by disagreements involving the ceasefire, territory and other parties. 3

Possible September talks would be technical, not a quick peace deal

Budanov said Ukrainian and Russian teams could hold talks in September, potentially with U.S. representatives involved. 2 In a separate account, he described possible near-term contacts as technical and preparatory—steps that might lay groundwork for a larger process rather than negotiations expected to produce an immediate agreement. 14

That cautious framing is important. The prospect of a meeting does not mean that the central political disagreements have been resolved. It suggests, at most, that limited diplomatic machinery could be restarted while the military conflict continues.

Russia’s territorial position remains a central obstacle

Reporting in the supplied material says Moscow continues to demand that Ukraine surrender full control of Donetsk, including areas Russia does not currently control. 36 That position conflicts with Kyiv’s stated approach and helps explain why a ceasefire remains distant.

Budanov also said the interests of third parties complicate any settlement and that Ukraine and Russia could resolve only limited issues on their own. 3 The result is a negotiation problem that is not simply about arranging a meeting: the parties disagree over the terms, scope and participants of any possible settlement.

Peskov says negotiations are stalled

Peskov said the peace process was on a “deep pause” and that there were “no new ideas.” He also linked Moscow’s position to what the Kremlin describes as continuing gains on the battlefield. 538

Other reporting said there was no planned phone call between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump. 4046 That is consistent with the broader picture presented by Moscow: public diplomacy is stalled while military operations continue.

Ratcliffe’s Moscow visit produced no visible breakthrough

CIA Director John Ratcliffe visited Moscow and met with Russian intelligence officials, according to the Kremlin, but did not meet Putin. The Kremlin said Putin was briefed on the discussions, while declining to provide details about their substance. 633

The visit therefore does not, on the available evidence, demonstrate that a high-level peace channel has reopened. It shows that sensitive contacts can still occur, but their purpose and impact remain unclear.

The war is also targeting economic and military infrastructure

The diplomatic freeze is unfolding alongside an intensifying infrastructure campaign. Reuters reported that Russian missiles and drones struck Ukrainian ports, grain storage, energy facilities, industrial sites and retail-distribution infrastructure. 17 Ukraine’s state energy company also reported repeated attacks on Naftogaz facilities, adding to concerns about heating, electricity and gas supplies ahead of winter. 18

Ukraine, in turn, has continued long-range attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. Reuters reported that a Lukoil-owned refinery was hit and suspended crude processing after the attack. 19 Other reporting describes Ukrainian efforts to target Russian fuel, logistics and military-industrial capacity. 2023

These strikes are not separate from the diplomatic story. They are part of the pressure each side is applying while negotiations remain stalled: Russia is striking infrastructure that supports Ukraine’s economy and civilian resilience, while Ukraine is targeting energy and logistics assets it says help sustain Russia’s war effort. The available sources document the attacks and stated aims, but do not establish that either campaign has forced a political breakthrough.

What the latest statements mean

The clearest conclusion is that diplomacy remains limited and conditional rather than imminent. Kyiv is signaling that technical contacts and U.S. participation may still be possible, but is simultaneously preparing for continued fighting and a substantial monthly mobilization requirement. 1214

Moscow is publicly presenting negotiations as paused, repeating that there are no new ideas while emphasizing battlefield momentum. 538 Prisoner exchanges remain a functioning humanitarian channel, but the territorial dispute and wider settlement terms remain unresolved. 336

Taken together, the statements describe a conflict entering another winter with no visible near-term ceasefire, mounting pressure on Ukraine’s personnel and society, and continued attacks on the energy, industrial and logistical systems that support both sides’ war efforts.