WMO Sounds Alarm: El Niño Will 'Pour Fuel on the Fire of a Warming World'

These figures are reinforced by the United States' National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Its Climate Prediction Center issued a complementary forecast, giving an 82% chance of El Niño emerging slightly earlier, during May–July 2026, and a 96% chance that the phenomenon will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026–27 . The tight clustering of these independent forecasts underscores the confidence that a global shift is imminent.

An Urgent Warning from the UN

The forecast was not presented as a routine climate update. In a video statement, UN Secretary-General António Guterres framed the report as a clear mandate for action, stating with “90% certainty” that El Niño is arriving and declaring, “The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is” . Guterres warned that the new El Niño would “pour fuel on the fire of a warming world,” compounding the effects of human-driven climate change .

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo echoed this urgency, calling on countries to prepare immediately for a potentially strong event that could worsen droughts, floods, and heatwaves across the globe . While it is still too early to state definitively how powerful the event will be, Saulo emphasized that inaction is not an option.

Potential Strength and Peak Timing

This is where caution meets concern. While the onset of El Niño appears certain, its ultimate strength remains a matter of probability rather than certainty. Most WMO forecast models suggest the event will be at least moderate, with a distinct possibility it could become strong . NOAA’s analysis adds a sharper edge to this forecast: it indicates nearly a 1-in-3 chance of a strong or even very strong El Niño developing by the November 2026–January 2027 timeframe .

The implications of a strong event are significant. Historically, powerful El Niño episodes—like the 2015–2016 “Super El Niño”—have been associated with widespread coral bleaching, severe droughts in Australia and Indonesia, flooding in parts of South America, and a measurable spike in global average temperatures.

The Global Heat Outlook

Above-normal land temperatures are forecast across nearly all regions for the June to August 2026 period, according to the WMO's Global Seasonal Climate Update . This projection, combined with the developing El Niño, has scientists warning about the potential for 2026 to rank among the warmest years on record. The synergy between background greenhouse gas warming and a new El Niño event is what makes this moment uniquely dangerous—it layers a natural warming cycle on top of an already elevated global temperature baseline .

What Comes Next

For countries on the front lines of climate variability, the immediate task is preparedness. The WMO’s update is intended as an early warning system, giving governments, agricultural sectors, and water resource managers a critical window to plan. Recommendations from officials include promoting drought-resistant crops, strengthening irrigation infrastructure, and adjusting planting schedules to account for altered rainfall patterns .