Munich Re Warns: Super El Niño Poised to Trigger Extreme Weather After a Calm First Half

The Looming Super El Niño: A 'Dangerous Mix'

Munich Re's central warning is about the rapid development of a Super El Niño that, according to the US Climate Prediction Center, is expected to be one of the strongest in more than 75 years . The pattern is already strengthening in the Pacific Ocean and will push up global temperatures.

Tobias Grimm, Munich Re's chief climate scientist, stated: "It's a dangerous mix: as global warming continues, the world is also heading for a Super El Niño, which will drive temperatures up even further. The effects will likely be clearly felt in the second half of the year."

Current forecasts point to record-breaking El Niño conditions toward the end of 2026, with the peak expected between November 2026 and January 2027 .

Regional Risks: Asia-Pacific in the Crosshairs

Munich Re emphasized that the Super El Niño will shift the distribution of weather-related risks globally, with Asia-Pacific expected to bear the brunt of the impact.

Achim Kassow, Munich Re board member for Asia-Pacific, Middle East and Africa, said: "We must brace ourselves for a higher typhoon risk in Japan and Korea as well as for heatwaves, drought and wildfires in other regions like South-East Asia, India and Australia."

Expected impacts by region:

• East Asia: Higher typhoon risk with potential changes in storm tracks and intensity; southern and eastern China face above-average rainfall and increased flood risk .
• India and parts of Southeast Asia: Below-average rainfall raising the likelihood of drought and water stress .
• Australia, Central America, and parts of Africa: Elevated risk of drought and wildfires .
• South America and the United States: Can expect heavy rainfall in some areas .
• Global temperatures: El Niño will push global temperatures even higher on top of already record-breaking heat, compounding the effects of climate change .

Key Takeaway

"The key takeaway is that El Niño shifts the distribution of weather-related risks across Asia. Many parts of Asia-Pacific are subject to elevated natural catastrophe risks in the second half of 2026," Munich Re concluded .

The combination of a below-average first half and a looming Super El Niño means that while insurers saw relatively low losses in H1, the second half of 2026 could bring a significant uptick in catastrophic events, testing both public preparedness and the resilience of insurance markets.