The 2026 Projection: A Slowing Trajectory

IATA's latest data shows SAF output will inch up from 1.9 million tonnes in 2025 to 2.4 million tonnes in 2026 . This increase of just 0.5 million tonnes is a significant slowdown from the 0.9 million tonne jump between 2024 and 2025, when production had doubled .

This modest volume will account for only 0.8% of the projected global jet fuel consumption of roughly 321 million tonnes . The stagnation is particularly concerning given that global SAF production capacity has expanded to 9 million tonnes, meaning the industry is utilizing less than a third of its available potential .

Production in Context: A Multi-Year Struggle

To understand the scale of the challenge, it's useful to look at the historical trajectory. The industry started from near-zero and has been trying to scale exponentially, but the latest data shows the curve is flattening at a critical moment.

• 2020: 0.04 Mt (<0.01% of jet fuel)
• 2021: 0.08 Mt (<0.05%)
• 2024: 1.0 Mt (~0.3%)
• 2025: 1.9 Mt (~0.6%)
• 2026 (Projected): 2.4 Mt (0.8%)

Since December 2025, production has effectively stagnated despite the ample nameplate capacity available . This disconnect between potential and reality is at the heart of IATA's frustrations.

The Soaring Cost of a Drop in the Bucket

The financial burden of this slow scale-up is immense. IATA estimates the 2.4 million tonnes of SAF will add approximately $4.3 billion to airline fuel bills in 2026 . This cost premium is driven by a combination of factors:

• Expensive feedstocks and immature technologies keep SAF several times more expensive than conventional jet fuel .
• Underdeveloped infrastructure and high upfront capital costs continue to deter the investment needed for mass production .
• Regulatory complexity and a lack of harmonized global policies create uncertainty and additional compliance burdens .

The result is a vicious cycle where high costs suppress offtake agreements, which in turn prevents producers from scaling up and driving down costs.

IATA’s Direct Attack on EU SAF Mandates

IATA's leadership, particularly Director General Willie Walsh, has not held back in criticizing government policies that they argue are making the problem worse. The primary target is the European Union and its ReFuelEU Aviation mandate.

Walsh described the EU's approach as "costly, ineffective, and ripe for exploitation," arguing it imposes a massive financial penalty on airlines without delivering a proportional environmental benefit .

A central complaint is that the mandates have created a market distortion where compliance fees have doubled the cost of SAF in Europe. IATA found that while the market cost for one million tonnes of SAF was $1.2 billion, producers and suppliers were charging an additional $1.7 billion in compliance fees—money Walsh argued could have abated millions of tonnes of carbon if spent on actual fuel .

The core of IATA's criticism is that mandates without parallel supply-side incentives punish airlines for buying a fuel that doesn't yet exist in sufficient quantity. IATA warns that the EU's unilateral and technology-prescriptive rules are not only failing to scale SAF production but are also actively harming the competitiveness of Europe's aviation sector . Instead, IATA advocates for policies that are technology-agnostic and globally harmonized, using incentives to build the market rather than mandates that create new costs .

IATA's Four-Point Plan to Accelerate SAF

To break the deadlock, IATA has outlined a coordinated set of four priorities it wants governments and industry to focus on :

1. Expand the renewable energy and feedstock supply. A massive increase in renewable power and sustainable biomass is essential to produce SAF at scale, with a specific need to prioritize these resources for hard-to-abate sectors like aviation .
2. Open access to fuel infrastructure. New producers must have non-discriminatory access to existing blending, storage, and distribution networks to get their product to market efficiently.
3. Unlock financing mechanisms. Governments must de-risk new SAF plants through loan guarantees, grants, and other tools to attract the necessary private capital.
4. Implement incentive-based, globally harmonized policies. IATA urges a move away from fragmented, penalty-driven mandates toward consistent policies that use incentives to drive production and are neutral on technology and feedstock choices .

Without this coordinated effort, IATA warns, the gap between net-zero ambitions and on-the-ground reality will only continue to widen.

The 2026 Projection: A Slowing Trajectory

IATA's latest data shows SAF output will inch up from 1.9 million tonnes in 2025 to 2.4 million tonnes in 2026 . This increase of just 0.5 million tonnes is a significant slowdown from the 0.9 million tonne jump between 2024 and 2025, when production had doubled .

This modest volume will account for only 0.8% of the projected global jet fuel consumption of roughly 321 million tonnes . The stagnation is particularly concerning given that global SAF production capacity has expanded to 9 million tonnes, meaning the industry is utilizing less than a third of its available potential .

Production in Context: A Multi-Year Struggle

To understand the scale of the challenge, it's useful to look at the historical trajectory. The industry started from near-zero and has been trying to scale exponentially, but the latest data shows the curve is flattening at a critical moment.

• 2020: 0.04 Mt (<0.01% of jet fuel)
• 2021: 0.08 Mt (<0.05%)
• 2024: 1.0 Mt (~0.3%)
• 2025: 1.9 Mt (~0.6%)
• 2026 (Projected): 2.4 Mt (0.8%)

Since December 2025, production has effectively stagnated despite the ample nameplate capacity available . This disconnect between potential and reality is at the heart of IATA's frustrations.

The Soaring Cost of a Drop in the Bucket

The financial burden of this slow scale-up is immense. IATA estimates the 2.4 million tonnes of SAF will add approximately $4.3 billion to airline fuel bills in 2026 . This cost premium is driven by a combination of factors:

• Expensive feedstocks and immature technologies keep SAF several times more expensive than conventional jet fuel .
• Underdeveloped infrastructure and high upfront capital costs continue to deter the investment needed for mass production .
• Regulatory complexity and a lack of harmonized global policies create uncertainty and additional compliance burdens .

The result is a vicious cycle where high costs suppress offtake agreements, which in turn prevents producers from scaling up and driving down costs.

IATA’s Direct Attack on EU SAF Mandates

IATA's leadership, particularly Director General Willie Walsh, has not held back in criticizing government policies that they argue are making the problem worse. The primary target is the European Union and its ReFuelEU Aviation mandate.

Walsh described the EU's approach as "costly, ineffective, and ripe for exploitation," arguing it imposes a massive financial penalty on airlines without delivering a proportional environmental benefit .

A central complaint is that the mandates have created a market distortion where compliance fees have doubled the cost of SAF in Europe. IATA found that while the market cost for one million tonnes of SAF was $1.2 billion, producers and suppliers were charging an additional $1.7 billion in compliance fees—money Walsh argued could have abated millions of tonnes of carbon if spent on actual fuel .

The core of IATA's criticism is that mandates without parallel supply-side incentives punish airlines for buying a fuel that doesn't yet exist in sufficient quantity. IATA warns that the EU's unilateral and technology-prescriptive rules are not only failing to scale SAF production but are also actively harming the competitiveness of Europe's aviation sector . Instead, IATA advocates for policies that are technology-agnostic and globally harmonized, using incentives to build the market rather than mandates that create new costs .

IATA's Four-Point Plan to Accelerate SAF

To break the deadlock, IATA has outlined a coordinated set of four priorities it wants governments and industry to focus on :

1. Expand the renewable energy and feedstock supply. A massive increase in renewable power and sustainable biomass is essential to produce SAF at scale, with a specific need to prioritize these resources for hard-to-abate sectors like aviation .
2. Open access to fuel infrastructure. New producers must have non-discriminatory access to existing blending, storage, and distribution networks to get their product to market efficiently.
3. Unlock financing mechanisms. Governments must de-risk new SAF plants through loan guarantees, grants, and other tools to attract the necessary private capital.
4. Implement incentive-based, globally harmonized policies. IATA urges a move away from fragmented, penalty-driven mandates toward consistent policies that use incentives to drive production and are neutral on technology and feedstock choices .

Without this coordinated effort, IATA warns, the gap between net-zero ambitions and on-the-ground reality will only continue to widen.