DBS Sees Vietnam Exports Accelerating to 27% in August 2026

Vietnam’s near-term economic momentum looked strong in DBS’s August 2026 assessment. Strategists Taimur Baig and Nathan Chow expected goods-export growth to accelerate to 27.0% year on year in August, from 25.0% in July, with electronics shipments leading the increase and supportive external demand providing the broader lift. Retail sales were also expected to remain strong, while inflation was forecast at 4.4%, below the 5.6% peak recorded in May. 12

DBS’s August forecast for Vietnam

Goods exports: 27% year-on-year growth

DBS expected Vietnam’s goods exports to extend their run of strong double-digit growth in August 2026. The 27.0% forecast would represent a two-percentage-point acceleration from July’s 25.0% growth rate. Electronics shipments were identified as the primary driver, with external demand offering additional support. 1

That outlook is consistent with Vietnam’s broader trade performance in the first half of the year. Total merchandise trade reached approximately $549.69 billion through June, while exports rose 21.0% year on year. 2527

Retail sales and tourism remain resilient

DBS also expected retail sales to remain strong, supported by domestic consumption and tourism-related spending. The consumption outlook therefore provided a second pillar for growth alongside exports, rather than leaving the economy dependent on overseas shipments alone. 2

Inflation eases, but underlying pressures remain

Headline inflation was forecast at 4.4% year on year in August. That would be lower than the 5.6% May peak, as transport-price pressures moderated. However, food and housing costs were still described as firm, keeping inflation elevated rather than fully resolved. 2

How the forecast fits Vietnam’s first-half performance

The August projection followed an unusually strong start to 2026. Vietnam’s economy grew 8.18% year on year in the first half, while second-quarter GDP increased 8.39%, according to the National Statistics Office. 27

Trade was a major part of that performance. Merchandise trade approached $550 billion through June, although imports grew faster than exports in the first half and the trade balance moved into deficit. 2125

That combination matters for interpreting the DBS view. Strong exports and manufacturing can lift production and income, but rapid import growth may reduce the contribution of net trade to overall GDP growth. The World Bank consequently projected that Vietnam’s growth would moderate to 6.8% in 2026, citing weaker global demand and the effects of the Middle East oil shock. It also described net trade as a modest but growing drag. 18

Electronics are at the center of the export story

Electronics help explain why DBS placed particular emphasis on shipments in that sector. A report cited by Vietnam’s government news portal said electronics generated nearly $124 billion in export revenue in the first seven months of 2026, about $35 billion more than in the same period a year earlier. The same report put 2025 electronics exports above $164 billion. 33

Vietnam’s position in electronics also reflects wider supply-chain changes. Reports describe multinational technology companies diversifying production networks and treating Vietnam as an increasingly important link in regional manufacturing. 38

The opportunity comes with a concentration risk, however. Vietnam’s export gains are closely tied to electronics, phones, computers and components, so weaker global technology demand or a disruption to international supply chains could affect both exports and industrial activity. 3347

What about the 2026 export target?

The supplied evidence does not point to one single, consistently reported target. A VietnamPlus report says the Ministry of Industry and Trade set an 8% export-growth target for 2026, equivalent to roughly $513 billion after 2025 exports of about $475 billion. 44 Another government-linked summary refers to a target of approximately 15–16% growth in total export turnover compared with 2025. 48

Those figures should not be treated as interchangeable: one refers to an export-turnover target expressed as about $513 billion, while the other describes a growth objective. In either case, DBS’s 27% August projection would represent considerably faster monthly growth than the annual target implied by those figures, but a single strong month would not by itself determine the full-year outcome.

Bottom line

DBS’s August outlook was constructive: Vietnam’s goods exports were expected to grow 27.0% year on year, led by electronics and supported by external demand; retail sales were expected to stay strong; and inflation was forecast at 4.4%, below May’s 5.6% peak but still pressured by food and housing costs. 12

The forecast fits an economy that entered the second half of 2026 with strong GDP, trade and electronics momentum. The main qualification is that full-year growth may still slow to 6.8% as global demand weakens, imports outpace exports and Vietnam remains exposed to the concentration of its export model. 182133