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Why Bank of America Cut Its Apple iPhone Forecast Below Wall Street’s
BofA cut its FY2027 iPhone forecast by 9 million to 247 million, versus Wall Street’s 260 million. BofA’s reported September quarter estimates—$113 billion revenue and $1.97 EPS—were below the cited consensus of $114 billion and $1.99; the bank also saw consensus as too high for December revenue and March margins.
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Key takeaways
- BofA cut its FY2027 iPhone forecast by 9 million to 247 million, versus Wall Street’s 260 million.
- BofA’s reported September quarter estimates—$113 billion revenue and $1.97 EPS—were below the cited consensus of $114 billion and $1.99; the bank also saw consensus as too high for December revenue and March margins.
AI Prompt
openai.comCreate a landscape editorial hero image for this Studio Global article: What did Bank of America’s October 31, 2026 Apple research note say about Wamsi Mohan’s revised fiscal 2027 iPhone shipment forecast versus. Article summary: Bank of America’s central warning was that Wall Street could be overestimating Apple’s near-term revenue and margins because of staggered iPhone launches and rising memory costs, even as Wamsi Mohan retained his Buy rati. Topic tags: general, news, general web, user generated. Style: premium digital editorial illustration, source-backed research mood, clean composition, high detail, modern web publication hero. Use reference image context only for broad subject, composition, and topical grounding; do not copy the exact image. Avoid: logos, brand marks, copyrighted characters, real person likenesses, fake screenshots, UI text, readable text, watermarks, charts wi
Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan cut his fiscal 2027 iPhone shipment forecast to 247 million units, down 9 million from his previous estimate and 13 million below Wall Street’s 260 million. His concern was not only demand: Apple’s split launch calendar could shift revenue and product mix between quarters, while higher memory and component costs could pressure margins. Mohan nevertheless kept his Buy rating and $370 price target. 2
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A 13-million-unit gap with Wall Street
BofA’s 247 million-unit estimate compares with roughly 260 million iPhones expected by consensus. The forecast cut reflects a more cautious view of Apple’s fiscal 2027 shipments, but the available coverage does not establish how much of the change is attributable to launch timing versus costs or other factors. 8
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Reports describe the Pro, Pro Max and Duo models launching in September, with the base model and Air scheduled for March. When major models arrive in different quarters, sales can be distributed differently across the reporting calendar, and the mix of models sold can affect revenue and gross-margin comparisons. That can make quarterly forecasts harder to compare; it does not, by itself, show that underlying customer demand has changed. 5
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BofA’s reported view was that Wall Street consensus was too high for December-quarter revenue and March-quarter gross margins, but too low for June-quarter revenue—while still too high for June margins. 5
22 The available excerpts do not provide enough detail to reconstruct the bank’s specific quarterly revenue and margin estimates or the full bridge behind those comparisons.
September-quarter estimates were below consensus
Ahead of Apple’s November 2 results, BofA was reported to estimate $113 billion in September-quarter revenue and $1.97 in earnings per share, compared with cited Wall Street estimates of $114 billion and $1.99. Those figures put the bank’s reported estimates below consensus, despite separate coverage describing its expected result as a possible slight beat. The estimates and that description do not align cleanly in the available reporting. 4
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The bank’s more cautious concern centered on the December quarter, when the launch schedule, component-cost inflation and weaker Services growth could weigh on results. These were analyst expectations ahead of the report, not Apple’s reported results or company guidance for December. 4
Memory costs complicate the margin outlook
BofA cited rising component costs, including memory, as another pressure on Apple’s outlook. Mohan’s longer-term case was that pricing, product mix and cost actions could help margins recover from late fiscal 2027 into 2028. 2
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The sources available here do not reliably establish BofA’s precise estimate of the memory-cost impact on iPhone or companywide gross margins, either before or after offsets. Nor do they verify what the bank assumed about the benefit from existing memory inventory or future tariff refunds. Apple had previously reported that tariff refunds added $0.11 to diluted EPS in its June quarter, but that past contribution does not establish future relief or BofA’s assumptions. 51
Ratings and analyst context
BofA reportedly removed Apple from its U.S. 1 List while cutting its shipment forecast. That change in list status coexisted with Mohan’s retained Buy rating and $370 target; it should not be confused with a downgrade of his stock rating. 2
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In separate coverage, Morgan Stanley was reported to have lowered its Apple price target to $355 from $360 while maintaining an Overweight rating, citing lower-than-expected iPhone pricing and sharply higher memory costs. The available excerpt does not provide a reliable numerical estimate of Morgan Stanley’s memory-cost impact. 18
What the November 2 earnings event could clarify
Apple’s fiscal fourth-quarter results were scheduled for November 2, with a 5 p.m. Eastern call described as John Ternus’s first earnings call as CEO. Investors were watching for the company’s holiday-quarter outlook and for commentary on whether new products could help offset rising memory costs. 1
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Apple’s September-quarter guidance was reported as 9%–11% revenue growth and a 47%–48% gross margin. Those ranges were guidance for the September quarter, not December-quarter guidance. 14
What the available reporting leaves unresolved
Most coverage of Mohan’s note is dated October 30, while one market-news index labels the forecast item October 31. The original research note is not included in the available sources, so its exact publication date and several detailed assumptions—including quarter-by-quarter margin figures and quantified cost offsets—cannot be confirmed. 6
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What is the short answer to "Why Bank of America Cut Its Apple iPhone Forecast Below Wall Street’s"?
BofA cut its FY2027 iPhone forecast by 9 million to 247 million, versus Wall Street’s 260 million.
What are the key points to validate first?
BofA cut its FY2027 iPhone forecast by 9 million to 247 million, versus Wall Street’s 260 million. BofA’s reported September quarter estimates—$113 billion revenue and $1.97 EPS—were below the cited consensus of $114 billion and $1.99; the bank also saw consensus as too high for December revenue and March margins.