US Export Controls Are Backfiring: USCBC Survey Finds Licensing Delays Costing Billions With No Strategic Gain

A July 2026 flash survey by the US-China Business Council (USCBC) paints a stark picture of a Trump administration export-control regime that is failing on its own terms. The survey of 31 companies—primarily in technology, industrial manufacturing, energy, and healthcare—found that the licensing system is plagued by massive delays, eroded credibility, and regulatory dysfunction. The central conclusion: the regime is achieving little strategic benefit while significantly harming American competitiveness .

What the Survey Found About the Regime

Massive delays are the norm. 95% of companies identified long license review times as their biggest challenge, and 71% faced specific delays when exporting to China .

Statutory violations are widespread. 66% of companies had licenses pending for at least three months—exceeding the Commerce Department's 90-day statutory limit—and 31% had licenses pending for one to two years .

Processing times are getting worse. The average BIS processing time slowed to 62 days in 2025 from 38 days in 2023, and the number of processed applications dropped nearly 20% .

Confidence in the system has collapsed. Only 30% of respondents believed BIS follows its own procedures to a great or moderate extent .

Communication breakdowns are routine. 57% cited unreliable communication from licensing officers, 48% cited unclear policy interpretations, and BIS cut most Technical Advisory Committee meetings—a key industry feedback channel .

Key Consequences for American Firms

The survey identified seven major ways the licensing regime is damaging U.S. companies:

1. Billions in lost exports and market share. Months-long delays are costing the US billions, with 64% of companies losing market share in China and 73% losing sales to Chinese competitors .

2. Self-defeating controls. 82% of pending licenses cover items with comparable alternatives already available from non-US suppliers (Chinese, international, or both). This means the controls sideline American firms for no strategic gain—the products reach Chinese buyers anyway .

3. Major financial losses. More than one third of companies (36%) have faced at least tens of millions of dollars in losses from delayed licenses. Multiple companies reported hundreds of millions or even billions in losses .

4. R&D harm. Lost profits squeeze budgets needed for research and development, diminishing America's ability to innovate .

5. Reputational damage. Extended delays cast US companies as unreliable suppliers, and 27% reported retaliatory Chinese government actions (e.g., in rare-earth approvals) .

6. Recruitment and operations hit. 35% cited delays in deemed export licenses, making it harder to hire foreign nationals and staff R&D projects .

7. Regulatory limbo. The Affiliates Rule—which extends restrictions to Entity List-linked parties—was issued as an interim final rule then suspended. 85% of companies said reinstatement would have a severe or moderate impact .

Broader Context: A System Under Stress

The flash survey results are consistent with other reporting on the state of US export controls. A POLITICO analysis from July 2026 found that the Commerce Department's rulemaking is at its slowest pace in two decades, export license applications are piling up without approvals, and the government hasn't updated its blacklist of foreign firms in months . The USCBC's broader 2026 member survey of 175 companies found that around 40% of companies report negative effects from US export control policies, with many experiencing lost sales, severed customer relationships, and reputational damage due to the perception that US firms are unreliable suppliers .

The Bottom Line

The survey's central finding is that the Trump administration's export-control licensing regime is achieving little strategic benefit while costing the United States billions of dollars in lost exports and undermining American companies' global market share . As one analysis put it, "Washington may be shutting American companies out of a market without preventing Chinese customers from getting the products. That is not strategic leverage. It is self-imposed market exile" .