Phase 1: Pre-FOMC repricing. In the first week of June, silver slid more than 4% to around $65 an ounce as traders ramped up bets on a Fed rate hike. The metal broke below its 200-day moving average for the first time since April 2025 — a key technical breakdown . A stronger-than-expected May nonfarm payrolls report drove benchmark 10-year Treasury yields above 4.5%, strengthening the dollar and adding pressure .

Phase 2: Post-FOMC confirmation. After the Fed's June 17 decision, silver fell below $65 again — to its lowest level since June 11 — and was on track for a weekly loss of roughly 4.5% as the dollar climbed to a one-year high . On June 19, spot silver closed at $65.795, down 3.14% on the day .

The specific Fed signals that drove the selloff

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously on June 17, 2026 to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% — the fourth consecutive hold . The rate decision itself was widely expected. The shock came from the details in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and accompanying statements:

• The dot plot flipped. The median FOMC member shifted from expecting a rate cut in 2026 to projecting a rate hike by year-end — a complete reversal from the March projections . The median federal funds rate endpoint for 2026 rose to 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March .
• Nearly half of FOMC members now back a hike. Nine of 18 voting members penciled in at least one rate hike this year, with six projecting two or more .
• Inflation forecasts were raised sharply. The Fed revised its 2026 core PCE inflation forecast up to 3.3%, while simultaneously lowering the unemployment rate projection .
• The policy language hardened. The committee dropped its easing bias and moved to a neutral stance, signaling it was no longer leaning toward cuts .
• Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish debut. In his first press conference, Warsh struck a stern tone on inflation. Sources noted he "returned to his hawkish roots" and that his comments "sent ripples through the financial markets"
• The dollar surged. The US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to a one-year high, creating a direct headwind for dollar-denominated precious metals like silver .

How far silver has fallen from its January 2026 record high

Silver's all-time high was set on January 29, 2026, at $121.64 per ounce . From that peak to the ~$65 level in mid-June, the metal had fallen approximately $56–57, or roughly 47% . It was one of the most aggressive corrections in modern precious metals history.

Market sentiment and rate-hike probability

Sentiment turned deeply bearish for precious metals. The CME FedWatch tool assigned a 61% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the October 2026 meeting . Other sources estimated the market was pricing in roughly a 70% chance of a hike by September .

Institutional outlooks also shifted. Nuveen stated plainly: "We do not expect a rate cut until 2027" . Nearly half of FOMC members now explicitly support a hike in 2026, and traders began anticipating that the first increase could come within a few months .

Analysts' divided projections for silver's near-term trajectory

Analyst views are sharply split between bearish near-term caution and bullish structural optimism.

Bearish / Cautious

• Some analysts forecast a 10–15% decline during June, citing "de-hoarding" supply as sellers accept the current price plateau .
• The technical picture is unequivocally weak: silver broke its 200-day moving average and has corrected nearly 50% from its peak.
• CoinCodex's forecast model projected silver could fall as low as $44.23 by September 2026 .

Bullish / Structural

• J.P. Morgan expects silver to average around $81/oz in 2026, with quarterly forecasts near $84–$85 .
• The Silver Institute reports six consecutive supply deficits totaling 762 million ounces, with a projected 67 million oz deficit in 2026. Advocates argue this structural case is actually stronger now than it was in January .
• Year-end consensus forecasts cluster in the $78–$92 range, with some analysts — including Bank of America — calling as high as $135 .
• Some advisors argue the correction was a "setup" for the next leg higher. They point to intact supply deficits and the potential for dollar softness if a US-Iran truce eases oil prices and inflation pressure .

The central tension in silver's outlook is this: record supply deficits and robust industrial demand argue for higher prices over time, but near-term, a hawkish Fed, strong dollar, and deteriorating technicals suggest that the selling pressure may not be over.

Phase 1: Pre-FOMC repricing. In the first week of June, silver slid more than 4% to around $65 an ounce as traders ramped up bets on a Fed rate hike. The metal broke below its 200-day moving average for the first time since April 2025 — a key technical breakdown . A stronger-than-expected May nonfarm payrolls report drove benchmark 10-year Treasury yields above 4.5%, strengthening the dollar and adding pressure .

Phase 2: Post-FOMC confirmation. After the Fed's June 17 decision, silver fell below $65 again — to its lowest level since June 11 — and was on track for a weekly loss of roughly 4.5% as the dollar climbed to a one-year high . On June 19, spot silver closed at $65.795, down 3.14% on the day .

The specific Fed signals that drove the selloff

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously on June 17, 2026 to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% — the fourth consecutive hold . The rate decision itself was widely expected. The shock came from the details in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and accompanying statements:

• The dot plot flipped. The median FOMC member shifted from expecting a rate cut in 2026 to projecting a rate hike by year-end — a complete reversal from the March projections . The median federal funds rate endpoint for 2026 rose to 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March .
• Nearly half of FOMC members now back a hike. Nine of 18 voting members penciled in at least one rate hike this year, with six projecting two or more .
• Inflation forecasts were raised sharply. The Fed revised its 2026 core PCE inflation forecast up to 3.3%, while simultaneously lowering the unemployment rate projection .
• The policy language hardened. The committee dropped its easing bias and moved to a neutral stance, signaling it was no longer leaning toward cuts .
• Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish debut. In his first press conference, Warsh struck a stern tone on inflation. Sources noted he "returned to his hawkish roots" and that his comments "sent ripples through the financial markets"
• The dollar surged. The US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to a one-year high, creating a direct headwind for dollar-denominated precious metals like silver .

How far silver has fallen from its January 2026 record high

Silver's all-time high was set on January 29, 2026, at $121.64 per ounce . From that peak to the ~$65 level in mid-June, the metal had fallen approximately $56–57, or roughly 47% . It was one of the most aggressive corrections in modern precious metals history.

Market sentiment and rate-hike probability

Sentiment turned deeply bearish for precious metals. The CME FedWatch tool assigned a 61% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the October 2026 meeting . Other sources estimated the market was pricing in roughly a 70% chance of a hike by September .

Institutional outlooks also shifted. Nuveen stated plainly: "We do not expect a rate cut until 2027" . Nearly half of FOMC members now explicitly support a hike in 2026, and traders began anticipating that the first increase could come within a few months .

Analysts' divided projections for silver's near-term trajectory

Analyst views are sharply split between bearish near-term caution and bullish structural optimism.

Bearish / Cautious

• Some analysts forecast a 10–15% decline during June, citing "de-hoarding" supply as sellers accept the current price plateau .
• The technical picture is unequivocally weak: silver broke its 200-day moving average and has corrected nearly 50% from its peak.
• CoinCodex's forecast model projected silver could fall as low as $44.23 by September 2026 .

Bullish / Structural

• J.P. Morgan expects silver to average around $81/oz in 2026, with quarterly forecasts near $84–$85 .
• The Silver Institute reports six consecutive supply deficits totaling 762 million ounces, with a projected 67 million oz deficit in 2026. Advocates argue this structural case is actually stronger now than it was in January .
• Year-end consensus forecasts cluster in the $78–$92 range, with some analysts — including Bank of America — calling as high as $135 .
• Some advisors argue the correction was a "setup" for the next leg higher. They point to intact supply deficits and the potential for dollar softness if a US-Iran truce eases oil prices and inflation pressure .

The central tension in silver's outlook is this: record supply deficits and robust industrial demand argue for higher prices over time, but near-term, a hawkish Fed, strong dollar, and deteriorating technicals suggest that the selling pressure may not be over.