AnswersPublished19 sources
Why Cocoa Futures Fell to Seven-Week Lows on September 18, 2026
December New York cocoa fell 7.71% to 5,327, while December London cocoa dropped 7.48% to 3,934, sending both contracts to seven week lows. Côte d’Ivoire reported a 30% increase in 2025/26 production to 2.06 million tonnes, while cumulative port shipments were up 18% year on year through September 13.
Published byEdited with GPT-5.6 TerraImages generated with GPT Image 2
Research answer
Key takeaways
- December New York cocoa fell 7.71% to 5,327, while December London cocoa dropped 7.48% to 3,934, sending both contracts to seven week lows.
- Côte d’Ivoire reported a 30% increase in 2025/26 production to 2.06 million tonnes, while cumulative port shipments were up 18% year on year through September 13.
- Near term supply looked ample, but risks to the next West African crop led StoneX to cut its 2026/27 global surplus forecast to about 25,000 tonnes from 149,000 tonnes.
AI Prompt
openai.comCreate a landscape editorial hero image for this Studio Global article: What caused cocoa futures to fall to seven-week lows on September 18, 2026, including the scale of the price decline, evidence of surging Iv. Article summary: Cocoa’s September 18 selloff was primarily a short-term supply-and-inventory trade, reinforced by weakness elsewhere in soft commodities. The medium-term picture was less comfortable: forecasts pointed to a much tighter . Topic tags: general, general web. Style: premium digital editorial illustration, source-backed research mood, clean composition, high detail, modern web publication hero. Use reference image context only for broad subject, composition, and topical grounding; do not copy the exact image. Avoid: logos, brand marks, copyrighted characters, real person likenesses, fake screenshots, UI text, readable text, watermarks, charts with fake numbers, clic
Cocoa’s sharp fall on September 18 was primarily a near-term supply story. Stronger output and port arrivals in Côte d’Ivoire, alongside a substantial rise in exchange-certified inventories, told traders that deliverable cocoa was more readily available than expected.
How steep was the selloff?
December ICE New York cocoa settled 445 points lower, down 7.71%, at 5,327. December London cocoa fell 318 points, or 7.48%, to 3,934. Both contracts hit seven-week lows. 18
The move extended a broader pullback from late-August levels. It did not reflect a sudden change in long-term chocolate demand; rather, the market was repricing the availability of beans in the immediate supply chain.
Côte d’Ivoire data shifted the focus to abundant supply
Côte d’Ivoire, the world’s largest cocoa producer, supplied the clearest bearish data point. Its cocoa regulator reported production of 2.06 million metric tonnes from June 2025 through June 2026, up 30% from 1.58 million tonnes a year earlier. 5
Port arrivals supported that picture. Cumulative shipments reached 2.14 million tonnes through September 13, an 18% increase from a year earlier. 5 Data published earlier, through August 30, showed shipments running 19% ahead of the previous year.
6
For futures traders, higher harvests and shipments suggest more beans are reaching exporters and processors now. That reduces the urgency to secure nearby supply and weighs on prompt futures contracts.
ICE inventories added to the pressure
ICE-certified cocoa stocks had climbed to a two-year high of 3,436,742 bags on September 4 and remained near 3.42 million bags in mid-September. 7
Exchange-certified inventories are a key measure for the nearby futures market because they represent cocoa that can potentially be delivered against contracts. High stocks do not settle the longer-term production outlook, but they weaken the scarcity premium that can support prices when physical supplies are tight.
Weakness across soft commodities reinforced selling
Cocoa was also trading in a softer broader market for agricultural “soft” commodities. Arabica coffee had reached a 10-week low, while sugar and cocoa were also easing. 17
That backdrop may have amplified selling, as traders often reduce exposure across related markets when the sector is falling. Still, cocoa’s most direct drivers were the improved Ivorian supply flow and the build in ICE stocks.
The next crop remained the major risk
The selloff was based on beans available now, not on confidence that supply would remain plentiful through the 2026/27 season.
Early surveys put Côte d’Ivoire’s 2026/27 crop at about 1.8 million tonnes, roughly 18% below an estimated 2.2 million tonnes in 2025/26. 4
8 The projection was preliminary, but it indicated that the strong supply flow seen in the current market may not persist.
Ghana, another crucial producer, faced its own production risks. Its cocoa regulator, COCOBOD, projected 2026/27 output of 450,000 to 550,000 tonnes, compared with 750,000 tonnes projected for 2025/26. It cited swollen-shoot disease, aging cocoa farms and the prospect of adverse El Niño-related weather. 11
Why El Niño matters
A stronger El Niño pattern can bring hotter and drier conditions to West Africa, reducing soil moisture and potentially hurting cocoa yields. 8 That matters enormously because Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana account for a dominant share of global cocoa production.
StoneX cut its forecast for the 2026/27 global cocoa surplus to about 25,000 tonnes from 149,000 tonnes, citing worsening West African crop prospects and El Niño risk. 9 A surplus would still remain, but such a small cushion would leave the market more vulnerable to further weather, disease or crop-development setbacks.
Bottom line
Cocoa’s fall to seven-week lows was a repricing of current supply conditions: Côte d’Ivoire’s production and shipments were strong, ICE inventories were elevated, and weakness across soft commodities added bearish momentum.
The counterargument was about timing. The data showed ample cocoa available in the near term, while the greatest risks concerned future West African harvests. The market’s next major direction depended on whether Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana could avoid the weather, disease and structural production problems flagged for 2026/27. 4
9
11
Studio Global AI
Continue your research
This page includes a source-backed answer you can continue inside Studio Global.
People also ask
What is the short answer to "Why Cocoa Futures Fell to Seven-Week Lows on September 18, 2026"?
December New York cocoa fell 7.71% to 5,327, while December London cocoa dropped 7.48% to 3,934, sending both contracts to seven week lows.
What are the key points to validate first?
December New York cocoa fell 7.71% to 5,327, while December London cocoa dropped 7.48% to 3,934, sending both contracts to seven week lows. Côte d’Ivoire reported a 30% increase in 2025/26 production to 2.06 million tonnes, while cumulative port shipments were up 18% year on year through September 13.
What should I do next in practice?
Near term supply looked ample, but risks to the next West African crop led StoneX to cut its 2026/27 global surplus forecast to about 25,000 tonnes from 149,000 tonnes.