Ethereum at $1,840: Why the Downtrend Persists Despite Record ETF Inflows

Momentum indicators remain weak. The daily MACD is in bearish territory with no confirmed crossover yet, and the daily RSI has been hovering around 41, well below the neutral 50 level, indicating weak buying pressure . Even after bounces from $1,800, every attempt to push above $2,150 has been systematically rejected .

Key support and resistance levels:

• Immediate support: the $1,800 zone has held through weeks of selling pressure .
• A break below $1,800 opens the path to $1,785, then $1,700, and further toward $1,560 (the Q1 2026 low) .
• Upside: a daily close above the 100-day SMA (near $1,927–$1,957) would improve the near-term outlook; reclaiming $1,975–$2,000 would bring $2,000–$2,150 back into focus .

Reuters also noted that Ether's price movements have formed a bearish pennant pattern — a continuation setup that typically precedes further downside .

Institutional Flows: A Mixed Picture

Spot Ethereum ETFs have seen genuine institutional buying, but it has not been enough to reverse the trend. In mid-April 2026, Ethereum ETFs recorded 9–10 consecutive days of net inflows, with BlackRock's ETHA and Fidelity leading the way . The streak included a single-day surge of $67.85 million on April 15, and by late July Ethereum ETF weekly inflows ($103.9M) were outpacing Bitcoin ETF inflows by roughly 3x .

However, the flows have been inconsistent. Early April saw a $64.7 million single-day outflow, and Bitcoin-based products also saw a $490 million outflow during the last week of April . The broader picture is that institutional flows are positive but insufficient to overcome the macro and technical selling pressure.

The ETF inflow data also masks a concerning on-chain trend: large holders (whales) have been moving ETH to exchanges, adding to sell-side liquidity risk. Funding rates have turned negative and open interest has declined, suggesting leveraged longs are being flushed out .

Macro Headwinds

Rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. dollar have been a persistent drag on risk assets throughout 2026. Crypto, as a high-beta asset class, tends to underperform when real yields rise and the dollar strengthens, since those conditions tighten global financial conditions and reduce speculative appetite.

Ether is down ~29% year-to-date, underperforming Bitcoin and most major equity indices during the same period .

Summary of Key Drivers

The Key Watchpoints

• Below $1,800: targets open at $1,785 → $1,700 → $1,560 .
• Above 100-day SMA (~$1,927–$1,957): would neutralize the near-term bearish bias .
• Above $1,975–$2,000: would bring $2,150 back into play as the next major resistance .

Until price reclaims at least the 100-day SMA and the macro headwinds ease (lower yields, weaker dollar), the path of least resistance remains lower. The ETF inflows are a positive structural development, but they have not yet been large enough to absorb the selling pressure from macro-driven liquidation and whale distribution.