Ethereum at $1,840: Why the Downtrend Persists Despite Record ETF Inflows

Key support and resistance levels:

• Immediate support: the $1,800 zone has held through weeks of selling pressure .
• A break below $1,800 opens the path to $1,785, then $1,700, and further toward $1,560 (the Q1 2026 low) .
• Upside: a daily close above the 100-day SMA (near $1,927–$1,957) would improve the near-term outlook; reclaiming $1,975–$2,000 would bring $2,000–$2,150 back into focus .

Reuters also noted that Ether's price movements have formed a bearish pennant pattern — a continuation setup that typically precedes further downside .

Institutional Flows: A Mixed Picture

Spot Ethereum ETFs have seen genuine institutional buying, but it has not been enough to reverse the trend. In mid-April 2026, Ethereum ETFs recorded 9–10 consecutive days of net inflows, with BlackRock's ETHA and Fidelity leading the way . The streak included a single-day surge of $67.85 million on April 15, and by late July Ethereum ETF weekly inflows ($103.9M) were outpacing Bitcoin ETF inflows by roughly 3x .

However, the flows have been inconsistent. Early April saw a $64.7 million single-day outflow, and Bitcoin-based products also saw a $490 million outflow during the last week of April . The broader picture is that institutional flows are positive but insufficient to overcome the macro and technical selling pressure.

The ETF inflow data also masks a concerning on-chain trend: large holders (whales) have been moving ETH to exchanges, adding to sell-side liquidity risk. Funding rates have turned negative and open interest has declined, suggesting leveraged longs are being flushed out .

Macro Headwinds

Rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. dollar have been a persistent drag on risk assets throughout 2026. Crypto, as a high-beta asset class, tends to underperform when real yields rise and the dollar strengthens, since those conditions tighten global financial conditions and reduce speculative appetite.

Ether is down ~29% year-to-date, underperforming Bitcoin and most major equity indices during the same period .

Summary of Key Drivers

The Key Watchpoints

• Below $1,800: targets open at $1,785 → $1,700 → $1,560 .
• Above 100-day SMA (~$1,927–$1,957): would neutralize the near-term bearish bias .
• Above $1,975–$2,000: would bring $2,150 back into play as the next major resistance .

Until price reclaims at least the 100-day SMA and the macro headwinds ease (lower yields, weaker dollar), the path of least resistance remains lower. The ETF inflows are a positive structural development, but they have not yet been large enough to absorb the selling pressure from macro-driven liquidation and whale distribution.