Gaza Ceasefire on the Brink: Israel Orders 70% Land Grab as Talks Collapse

The U.S.-brokered ceasefire in Gaza, which took effect in October 2025, is fracturing on multiple fronts. Rather than a phased transition toward a stable peace, the situation has devolved into a volatile standoff defined by a major Israeli territorial expansion order, a complete breakdown in disarmament talks, and the looming threat of renewed war. Here is the state of play as of early June 2026.

The Core Deadlock: Hamas Disarmament

The transition to phase two of the ceasefire plan, which centers on Hamas's disarmament, the withdrawal of Israeli troops, and reconstruction, has stalled completely. The U.S.-led Board of Peace explicitly named Hamas as the primary obstacle. In its first report to the UN Security Council, the Board stated, "At this stage, the principal obstacle to full implementation remains Hamas' refusal to accept verified decommissioning, relinquish coercive control, and permit a genuine civilian transition in Gaza" .

Nickolay Mladenov, the Board's High Representative for Gaza, has repeatedly called disarmament "not negotiable" . Despite efforts to discuss details like gun buybacks and small arms for a future law enforcement body, no progress has been made . Negotiations in Cairo ground to a halt in early May after Hamas rejected all proposals , with the IDF documenting at least 19 ceasefire violations by Hamas between late April and early May . The Board has since delivered a stark warning: Israel is no longer obligated to uphold its ceasefire commitments if Hamas refuses to disarm .

Netanyahu Orders a 70% Land Grab

In a dramatic move that directly contradicts the spirit and terms of the truce, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on May 28 that he had ordered the Israel Defense Forces to expand its military control over the Gaza Strip to 70 percent of the territory . He stated, "We are currently squeezing Hamas. We now control 60% of the territory in the strip, and my directives are to move toward controlling 70%" . The original October 2025 ceasefire had envisioned Israel maintaining a temporary presence on roughly 53% of the land behind a designated "yellow line" . Israel had already unilaterally expanded its hold in the months prior to Netanyahu's order .

Hamas officials immediately condemned the declaration. Spokesman Bassem Naim described it as a "dangerous escalation" and a "blatant violation of all agreements, as is their usual practice... while the killing and starvation continue" . The move has heightened fears among Gazans of further displacement, with over 2 million people already penned into a constricted coastal area .

Board of Peace Pivots to 'Plan B'

Faced with the deadlock, the Board of Peace is shifting its strategy away from a comprehensive simultaneous agreement. A new approach, often referred to as a "Plan B," is taking shape. This plan would bypass the areas still under Hamas's control and instead begin implementing the U.S. 20-point peace plan—including reconstruction and governance by a new technocratic committee—only in the parts of Gaza currently held by Israel . The remaining areas, where the vast majority of the population lives, would be left in a state of indefinite suspension . On May 21, Mladenov warned the UN Security Council that the current division risked becoming permanent, with "more than 2 million people crowded into less than half its territory" .

Renewed Diplomacy and a Looming War

In a last-ditch diplomatic effort, Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey have invited a Hamas delegation for high-stakes talks in Cairo on Wednesday, June 3 . This comes after multiple failed rounds in April and May, including visits by Hamas's Gaza chief, Khalil Al-Hayya, yielded no progress . The mediators have reportedly presented new, revised proposals, but a Hamas official stated the group is only willing to consider "proposals acceptable to both Hamas and Israel" .

On the other side, Israel is actively preparing for a return to full-scale war. Following the collapse of talks in early May, Israeli officials began weighing contingency plans for a major military campaign, arguing that Hamas is exploiting the diplomatic pause to rebuild its capabilities . At least 846 Palestinians have been killed in the Strip since the October 2025 ceasefire came into force, underlining its fragility .

With negotiations deadlocked over disarmament, Israel expanding its military footprint, and both sides preparing for the worst, the Gaza ceasefire is in its most critical state since its inception eight months ago.