NBA Approves Radical '3-2-1' Lottery Overhaul to End Tanking, Starting in 2027

• Three worst teams (draft relegated): 2 balls each, giving them a 5.4% chance at the No. 1 pick .
• Teams with the 4th- through 10th-worst records: 3 balls each, giving them an 8.1% chance at No. 1 .
• No. 9 and No. 10 play-in seeds (4 teams): 2 balls each, translating to a roughly 5.4% chance at No. 1 .
• Losers of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in games (2 teams): 1 ball each, or a roughly 2.7% chance at the top pick .

This is a complete inversion of the old system. Previously, the worst teams enjoyed the highest odds, often a 14% chance at the No. 1 pick. Now, the three teams with the poorest records are intentionally given fewer balls than the seven teams that finish just ahead of them .

The 'Draft Relegation' Zone and a Pick Floor of 12

The bottom three teams now reside in a so-called "draft relegation zone," a penalty box that combines reduced odds with a strict pick floor . By having only two lottery balls each, these teams' No. 1 pick odds drop to 5.4%. The punishment is compounded by a new rule: a relegated team cannot fall further than the 12th overall pick in the draft order, regardless of how the lottery plays out . This guarantees a solid pick but removes the upside of being the absolute worst team in the league.

The seven remaining non-playoff teams (spots four through ten) are the new "sweet spot." By avoiding the relegation zone, they each receive three balls and the best individual odds (8.1%) of landing the franchise-altering first pick .

Which Teams Are Now in the Lottery?

The lottery field expands from 14 to 16 participants to disincentivize late-season tanking from fringe playoff teams . The 16 teams are:

• The 10 teams that miss the playoffs and the play-in tournament entirely.
• The four teams that finish as the No. 9 and No. 10 seeds in each conference and lose in the play-in tournament.
• The two losers of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in games in each conference .

All 16 draft slots are now drawn via the lottery process, closing the loophole where a team could narrowly miss the playoffs and be locked into a non-lottery pick .

How This Changes Pick Protections and the Draft Landscape

The league's announcement focuses on overhauling eligibility and odds, but the new system does not eliminate the existing framework of protected and traded picks outright . However, the flattened odds dramatically shift the value calculus for front offices.

Under the previous 14-team lottery, the gap between the best and worst odds for the No. 1 pick was substantial, often giving the worst team a 14% chance and the 14th team just 0.5%. Now, no single team has a dominant probability, with the best odds maxing out at 8.1% for seven different teams . This flatter distribution means that surrendering an unprotected pick is less likely to turn into a catastrophic loss of a top-3 selection, though it also makes it harder for rebuilding teams to guarantee themselves a foundational piece by bottoming out.

The inclusion of slots 15 and 16 into the lottery field also means that picks previously outside the lottery now have a small but real chance to jump into the top of the draft .

The Vote and the Anti-Tanking Philosophy

The proposal's passage was a landslide, though not unanimous. The 29-1 vote saw the Memphis Grizzlies as the lone team in opposition . NBA Commissioner Adam Silver and the league office crafted the proposal with an explicit goal: to remove the incentive for teams to race to the bottom for a better draft pick, encouraging competition throughout the entire regular season .

By making the fourth-worst record more valuable than the very-worst record, the league is betting that teams will be more hesitant to gut their rosters or sit healthy players late in the season, as losing too many games now actively hurts their draft odds.