Has Bitcoin Found a Durable Bottom at $64,000? The Bull vs. Bear Case, Analyzed

Record stablecoin supply as dry powder. Hougan also points to record stablecoin supply that could flow into Bitcoin once confidence returns .

Skeptical Case: A Futures-Driven Rally Without Spot Support

Ki Young Ju, CEO of on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, warns that the rally's appearance of strength is deceptive. His argument is grounded in the divergence between derivatives and spot markets.

Futures-driven, not spot-driven. Ju wrote on X: "Bitcoin is futures-driven right now. Open interest is rising, while on-chain spot demand remains net negative. A sustainable rally needs both spot and futures demand. As April showed, futures-led rallies tend to fade without spot support" .

The April precedent. Ju notes that even during April's bounce, spot demand was in net decline despite significant ETF inflows and large purchases by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) . Historically, true bear market bottoms only occur when spot and futures demand recover together .

A paradoxical CME shift. Interestingly, Ju himself reported that hedge funds on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange have turned net long for the first time in a rare positioning shift . But he frames this as consistent with the futures-led nature of the move — professional traders are piling into derivatives, not spot.

Technical Hurdles: The Moving Average Wall

Both sides agree on the technical obstacles. The most significant is the 200-day moving average.

• The 200-day EMA sits at approximately $72,018 and the 200-day SMA at roughly $69,750 . As long as price remains below this level, the broader trend is considered bearish .
• The $66,000–$67,000 resistance cluster is the immediate test. Multiple moving averages stack here — the 100-day MA is near $67,604 . Every rally since the June low has stalled inside this cluster .
• Bitcoin also threatened to close below its 200-week moving average (~$62,446) for the first time since October 2023 — a major long-term support level .

On-Chain Signals: Glassnode's Mixed Picture

Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode provides the most nuanced read: seller exhaustion is developing, but not yet confirming a historic bottom.

Seller Exhaustion Constant dropping, but not at bottom territory. Glassnode's Seller Exhaustion Constant has fallen below 0.02, indicating selling pressure is weakening . However, analyst Antifragile notes that previous bear markets pushed this indicator below 0.01 before establishing major bottoms . Glassnode itself stopped short of calling a historic bottom .

Long-term holders distributing heavily. Long-term holder (LTH) supply dropped by approximately 210,000 BTC in one week through early August — the steepest decline since late 2024 . This is a bearish signal: historically, durable bottoms coincide with LTH accumulation, not distribution.

Supply in loss at all-time highs. In late June, 10.83 million BTC (~54% of circulating supply) was held at a loss, surpassing even the 2022 bear market peak . While painful, this has historically preceded bottoms — but the timing is uncertain.

Price stuck in a 'compressed' range. Glassnode notes Bitcoin is trapped between the median realized price ($63,000) and the short-term holder cost basis ($68,700), a zone that typically resolves with a sharp move in either direction .

Summary of the Debate

The most honest read is that Bitcoin is showing tentative bottoming signals — seller exhaustion, stabilizing ETF flows, and a held June low — but none of the key on-chain or technical confirmations (spot demand re-emerging, moving average reclaim, long-term holder accumulation) have materialized yet. The market remains in what Glassnode calls a "compressed" state, where a decisive break above $67,000 or below $57,700 would likely resolve the direction.