Standard Chartered Says the Bitcoin Low Is ‘Almost In’: The Full Argument Behind the $100K Year-End Call

By early June, Bitcoin was trading around $63,000, down roughly 48% from its all-time high of $126,000 and still a long way from the $100,000 year-end target . Despite this, Kendrick’s latest note signals the bottom may be forming.

What Triggered the Sell-Off?

Several forces combined to push Bitcoin to multi-month lows:

• Persistent ETF outflows: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $2.43 billion in outflows during May alone, reflecting sustained institutional selling .
• Strategy’s Bitcoin sale: The company formerly known as MicroStrategy sold 32 BTC—its first disposal since 2022—shattering the market’s perception of it as a permanent, price-insensitive buyer .
• Macro headwinds: Weakening U.S. economic momentum and fading expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts have sapped risk appetite across digital assets .
• Extreme fear: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index plunged to 8 out of 100 in February, near historic lows .

Three Pillars of the ‘Low Is Almost In’ Thesis

In his June 2026 note, Kendrick laid out three reasons he believes the market is approaching a floor :

1. Strategy’s expected buyback: When Strategy last sold Bitcoin in December 2022, it bought back more than it sold just two days later. Kendrick expects the same pattern now, potentially with a repurchase of up to 100 times the 32 BTC it sold. A confirmed purchase could serve as a tentative signal that the low is in .

2. Structurally resilient ETF holdings: Despite the headline outflows, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holdings have remained relatively flat since February, with no concentrated wave of redemptions. Kendrick interprets this as a sign of "structural stability" in institutional capital—these are sticky, long-term holders unlikely to panic-sell .

3. Completed liquidations: With approximately $1.5 billion in Bitcoin futures liquidated, the pool of over-leveraged longs has been largely cleared out, removing a key source of forced downward pressure .

The Underperformance Signal That’s Actually Bullish

Kendrick has pointed to Bitcoin’s persistent underperformance relative to the Nasdaq as a constructive signal. When speculative retail froth drives a market, correlations with risk assets run high and dips are sharp. When that froth is gone, the remaining holders tend to be more disciplined. "This underperformance has wrung out speculative excess, leaving a much cleaner market structure," the argument goes .

The Long View: $500,000 Still the Target, but the Path Has Changed

The bank’s ultra-bullish $500,000 long-term target remains, though pushed from 2028 to 2030. The key structural shift: Kendrick now believes future Bitcoin price gains will be driven solely by ETF inflows. He has declared the era of corporate treasury buying as a demand pillar to be "over," citing the collapse in share prices of digital asset treasury companies that can no longer fund large Bitcoin purchases .

Kendrick has described the current downturn not as a crypto winter but as "a passing cold breeze," and in a previous note advised clients that when they look back at the end of 2026 with Bitcoin at $100,000, "we will say this was the buying zone we all wanted" .

What to Watch Next

The thesis is conditional. Kendrick’s call depends heavily on Strategy following through with a buyback and ETF outflows stabilizing. If macro conditions worsen further—or if Strategy does not repurchase—the $50,000 downside scenario remains on the table . But for now, Standard Chartered’s message to clients is clear: the worst of this sell-off may be behind us, and the risk-reward is tilting toward accumulation.