Why ocean freight rates may stay high even after Hormuz reopens

1. War-risk insurance is usually slow to fall

When a sea lane is treated as a high-risk area, war-risk insurance can become a major part of the cost of a voyage. Sidley reported that during the Hormuz crisis, war-risk premiums rose from roughly 0.2% of a vessel’s value to as much as 1%, while some insurers withdrew cover altogether .

That is why freight rates do not necessarily drop the day a route is declared open. Khaleej Times reported that even if commercial traffic resumed, global shipping costs were unlikely to fall quickly because war-risk premiums remained sharply elevated and insurers wanted months of sustained stability before restoring normal cover . Insurance Business made a similar point: reopening gave markets relief, but insurance and credit risks tied to the conflict were not resolved immediately .

Put simply: a ship may be allowed through in a day, but an insurance market rarely reprices risk in a day.

2. Security risk still gets priced into each voyage

Shipowners do not base decisions only on reopening statements. They also weigh the risk of another closure, attacks, military controls or mines. Sidley said commercial traffic fell sharply as shipowners and insurers reassessed security risk, and noted that multiple vessels had been struck while threats of naval mining were expected to prolong disruption .

If ceasefire terms or reopening mechanisms are unclear, that risk premium is harder to remove. Whalesbook described statements from Tehran and Washington as not fully aligned, leaving questions about payment structures and the actual scale of de-escalation . In that environment, shipowners may keep charging more, delay transits or wait for stronger proof that the corridor is safe.

3. Vessel schedules cannot snap back overnight

A disrupted chokepoint affects more than the ships sitting near it. Vessels may already have been diverted, held at anchor, reassigned or delayed. Rebuilding normal sailing schedules takes time.

Seavantage reported that rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope could add 10–14 days per voyage on some Asia–Europe and Asia–US East Coast lanes . Sidley also noted that Cape of Good Hope diversions add voyage time and bunker fuel costs .

Those extra days matter. A ship that spends longer on each round trip completes fewer voyages over the same period. Until effective capacity recovers, freight rates may remain sticky even if the physical bottleneck has eased .

4. Emergency surcharges often lag the headlines

During a crisis, carriers and vessel operators commonly add surcharges to cover insurance, security measures, fuel, delays or the risk of rerouting. Seavantage reported emergency surcharges of up to US$3,000 per FEU — a forty-foot equivalent container unit — on Gulf-linked corridors .

Those fees do not automatically disappear when reopening is announced. If insurers are still charging more, security teams are still monitoring risks, or schedules remain unreliable, carriers have a reason to keep some surcharges in place for a while. That fits the broader assessment that reopening Hormuz does not immediately restore normal shipping costs .

5. Cargo flows may recover gradually

A reopened route does not erase the commercial decisions made during the disruption. Charterers, cargo owners and carriers may already have changed routes, delayed shipments or priced in a more cautious operating plan.

TBS News cited expectations that disruption around Hormuz could persist for months after reopening, with high marine insurance costs acting as a financial disincentive and slowing the recovery in shipping volumes . That creates a feedback loop: weaker or uneven flows make schedules harder to stabilize, unstable schedules make delivery windows less predictable, and freight rates tend to fall more clearly only when both risk and operational disruption ease .

6. Fuel and fallback routing remain major variables

Hormuz is closely tied to expectations for energy supply, so reopening can affect oil markets quickly. Insurance Business reported that reopening delivered an immediate boost to global markets and energy supply expectations .

But the fuel cost of an individual voyage depends on more than the market’s first reaction. If a vessel has already diverted, waited, or still needs a contingency plan, voyage time and bunker fuel costs may remain higher than normal . So even if energy markets react positively, the actual cost of a specific sailing may not fall at the same pace.

When would ocean freight rates fall more clearly?

A more durable decline in shipping costs would likely require several conditions to line up:

• A reopening that is clear and verifiable, not just a political statement or a short-term ceasefire .
• Insurers returning with more normal capacity and pricing, after seeing sustained stability .
• A real reduction in security threats, especially attacks, mining risks or sudden restrictions on transit .
• Vessel rotations and service schedules returning to balance, so carriers no longer price voyages around diversion or delay scenarios .
• Emergency surcharges being reduced or removed, especially on Gulf-linked corridors .
• Shipping volumes recovering steadily, rather than being held back by insurance costs and defensive operating decisions .

The bottom line: reopening Hormuz solves only part of the problem. For ocean freight rates to fall quickly, the market also needs proof that the route is safe, insurable and stable enough for carriers to run normal schedules again .