Why shipping rates haven’t fallen fast after the Strait of Hormuz reopened

The cost increase can be large. Sidley reported that war-risk premiums rose from roughly 0.2% of vessel value to as much as 1%, with some insurers withdrawing coverage altogether . When cover becomes expensive or harder to obtain, shipowners and charterers are more likely to add a risk premium than to return immediately to pre-crisis pricing .

Marine insurance is also not one single line item. Howden Re identifies multiple layers of maritime risk, including hull, cargo, liability, crew casualty, pollution and war-cover cancellation provisions . So a reopening announcement does not automatically cause every layer of cover to reprice at once.

Shipowners are still pricing in the risk of escalation

For a shipowner, the question is not only, “Can the vessel transit today?” It is also, “Who pays if the security situation deteriorates again?” Sidley said commercial traffic fell sharply as shipowners and insurers reassessed security risk; it also cited vessels being struck and the threat of naval mining as factors expected to prolong disruption .

The political terms around the reopening may also remain unclear. Whalesbook described the Hormuz ceasefire as fragile, with conflicting messages from Tehran and Washington: Iran referred to a two-week period of safe passage coordinated with its armed forces, while the U.S. side described a “complete, immediate, and safe” opening . When the rules of transit, payment arrangements and the scale of de-escalation are still uncertain, freight markets usually price the more cautious scenario.

Vessel rotations do not recover in a few days

Ocean freight rates depend on available capacity, not just on a map showing that a route is open. When a crisis forces ships to reroute, wait at anchor or arrive late, vessel and container networks fall out of rhythm. SeaVantage reported that rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope can add 10 to 14 days to some Asia–Europe and Asia–U.S. East Coast voyages .

That delay does not disappear the day Hormuz reopens. TBS News reported that disruption could persist for months after reopening, partly because high war-risk insurance costs create a financial disincentive for operators and slow the recovery of shipping volumes . In other words, the shorter route may be available before the shipping network has fully rebalanced.

Emergency surcharges usually lag the news cycle

During high-risk periods, carriers and operators may add surcharges to cover security costs, insurance, diversion expenses and schedule disruption. SeaVantage reported emergency surcharges of up to $3,000 per FEU — a forty-foot-equivalent container unit — on Gulf-linked corridors; it also reported that transpacific container rates to the U.S. West Coast were up about 40% from pre-war levels, while Asia–North Europe rates were up about 20% .

Those charges are rarely removed on the strength of one announcement. Even if base ocean freight rates begin to soften, the all-in logistics bill paid by shippers can remain high if war-risk, emergency or insurance-related charges are still embedded in the quote .

Oil can react faster than freight

Energy prices can move quickly when traders reassess supply risk. Insurance Business reported that Brent crude fell sharply after Iran confirmed that Hormuz would be completely open to commercial vessels for the remainder of the ceasefire . But the same report noted that insurance and credit risks remained elevated .

That creates two different speeds of adjustment. Oil can fall as the perceived risk of a supply shortage eases. Freight rates need more proof that transit is safe, insurance is available at lower cost, carrier schedules are reliable and risk surcharges are being removed from invoices .

What would signal a more durable drop in freight rates?

There is no fixed timetable. Rather than focusing only on the headline that Hormuz has reopened, importers, exporters and logistics teams should watch for more practical signals:

• Insurers expand war-risk capacity again and reduce premiums after a sustained period of stability .
• Marine policy terms, including war-cover cancellation provisions, become less restrictive for hull and cargo cover .
• Shipowners resume Hormuz transits without demanding unusually high risk premiums, allowing shipping volumes to recover .
• Carriers remove emergency surcharges and restore vessel rotations to normal schedules .
• Ceasefire terms, payment arrangements and transit rules become clearer, reducing the perceived risk of renewed escalation .

For shippers, the practical takeaway is to compare the all-in quote, not just the headline base rate. War-risk charges, bunker adjustments, emergency surcharges and quote validity periods can matter as much as the ocean freight line itself. Hormuz reopening helps remove the physical bottleneck; freight rates are likely to fall sustainably only when the risk premium is removed too.