How El Niño Affected Soybeans, Corn and Wheat in 2015–16

The 2015–16 El Niño was one of the strongest on record, but its impact on agriculture was uneven. Looking at global production, soybeans, corn and wheat did not all suffer steep declines at the same time: corn production weakened, soybeans slipped modestly and wheat stayed close to record-high output.

Corn: global output declined, with severe losses in southern Africa

World corn production was estimated at 968.8 million tonnes in 2015/16, below the roughly 1 billion tonnes produced the previous year.3 The global change was meaningful, but the hardship was especially concentrated in drought-hit regions.

El Niño-linked poor rains and unusually high temperatures severely damaged harvests across parts of southern Africa. FAO reported that aggregate cereal production in affected areas was expected to fall 12% from an already reduced 2015 level, while maize losses in several locations ranged from 50% to 100%.8 Country-level estimates also recorded maize declines of about one-third in one case and 61% in another.910

Wheat: production remained high

Global wheat production was about 735 million tonnes in 2015, marginally above the previous record.13 For 2016/17, the initial world estimate was 734.1 million tonnes—only a small decline and still an historically high level.3

In other words, El Niño did not cause a clear worldwide breakdown in wheat supply, even though weather conditions damaged crop prospects in particular countries and regions.

Soybeans: a modest global pullback

World soybean output in 2015/16 was estimated at 315.9 million tonnes, a slight decline rather than a widespread harvest failure.3 Weather effects differed across producing regions: drought in some places and excessive rain in others meant that the outcome varied by location and crop timing.

Why the global picture was not a blanket crop failure

El Niño can reshape rainfall and temperatures across large areas, but its agricultural consequences depend on whether adverse weather hits a major producing region—and whether it arrives during planting, flowering or grain filling. During 2015–16, drought and food-security emergencies were severe in parts of East and southern Africa, Southeast Asia and Central America, while conditions elsewhere partly offset those losses in global totals.8

The best shorthand for the period is therefore: weaker global corn production, a small decline in soybeans and still-high wheat output—not an across-the-board drop in all three crops.