Will El Niño Affect 2026/27 Soybean, Wheat and Corn Production Forecasts?

Yes—but El Niño should be viewed as a weather risk factor, not as a guaranteed production cut.

Its effect on 2026/27 soybean, wheat and corn estimates will depend on the timing and location of rainfall and heat during planting, flowering, pollination, grain filling and harvest. USDA forecasts generally do not include a single, separately quantified “El Niño reduction”; instead, crop estimates are revised as conditions in individual producing regions change. 13

Soybeans: Brazil and Argentina are the key watchpoints

The main risks are in Brazil and Argentina. If El Niño brings hotter, drier conditions to parts of Brazil—or poorly distributed rainfall to Argentina—it could reduce soybean yields during pod formation and grain filling.

However, El Niño does not automatically mean lower soybean production. In areas that are normally too dry, additional rainfall could improve crop prospects. As a result, the direction of the global soybean impact cannot yet be stated with certainty. S&P Global has identified Brazilian soybean output as facing downside risk in 2026/27. 4

Wheat: Australia faces the clearest weather exposure

Australia is one of the most vulnerable major wheat producers. El Niño is often associated with a higher risk of drier conditions there, which can reduce soil moisture and weaken yields in winter crops. Market analysis has listed a decline in Australian wheat production as one way El Niño could disrupt global supplies in 2026/27. 4

USDA has also lowered its 2026/27 wheat production outlook for the European Union because of drought. That shows how sensitive wheat estimates are to weather, but the EU drought should not automatically be attributed to El Niño. 3

Corn: Pollination weather will be crucial in the United States

For U.S. corn, the greatest short-term yield risk is hot, dry weather during summer pollination. In South America, the timing of rainfall will be particularly important for Brazil’s second corn crop and Argentina’s corn crop.

S&P Global has included U.S. corn among the crops that could see weaker 2026/27 output under El Niño-related weather patterns. At this stage, however, that is a risk assessment—not a confirmed production loss. 4

What current forecasts tell us

USDA’s August outlook put global 2026/27 wheat production at 819.3 million metric tons, down 24.1 million tons from 2025/26. The report specifically cited a lower European Union crop because of drought. 3

The Food and Agriculture Organization has likewise said that El Niño is adding uncertainty to the 2026 global cereal supply outlook. FAO’s latest forecast puts global cereal production at 2,983 million tons—1.9% below the 2025 record but still the second-highest level on record. 7

The best interpretation is therefore that El Niño could push production estimates either upward or downward over the coming months, depending on regional crop conditions. It should not be used as a single explanation for every change already seen in the forecasts. 13

Indicators worth monitoring

For crop and price risk, the most important indicators are:

• rainfall across Australia’s wheat-growing regions;
• temperature and soil moisture during U.S. corn pollination; and
• rainfall distribution in Brazil and Argentina’s soybean and corn areas.

These regional conditions will matter more than the El Niño label alone.