Pyongyang's Military Footprint in Russia Could Triple as Zelenskyy Warns of Dramatic Escalation

Troops Already Deployed

An estimated 11,000 to 14,000 North Korean troops have already been deployed to Russia's Kursk region, starting in late 2024 . The new plan represents a three-to-five-fold increase in North Korea's military footprint in Russia.

Where the Troops Will Be Stationed

• Three western Russian regions: Ukraine's military intelligence reported on August 12 that the new forces would be stationed in Kursk, Bryansk, and Voronezh oblasts . These regions border Ukraine and will be used to hold rear-area positions, freeing up Russian units for frontline combat.
• Ballistic missile unit in Voronezh: A specialized North Korean missile unit has already begun deploying specifically to Voronezh Oblast, about 150 km from the Ukrainian border .

Types of Military Units and Missiles

• Ballistic missile unit: A dedicated North Korean missile unit of roughly 90 personnel has begun deploying to Voronezh Oblast. It is equipped with six transporter-erector-launchers (TELs) and an inventory of up to 120 KN-23 and KN-24 short-range ballistic missiles . GUR spokesperson Andriy Chernyak confirmed the unit is "a separate missile unit of the North Korean army" .
• Artillery and munitions: Since 2024, North Korea has supplied massive quantities of artillery shells. By the end of 2025, it may have provided up to 50% of Russia's needs for 122mm and 152mm artillery calibers .
• Ground forces for rear-area holding: The new troop deployment would primarily consist of ground forces intended to hold positions in the three border regions, allowing Russian units to rotate to the front for offensive operations .

Estimated Financial Earnings for North Korea

The military partnership has become a major economic lifeline for North Korea:

• Bloomberg Economics analysis: Estimated that North Korea amassed up to $22 billion in foreign revenue from 2022 to 2025, nearly four times what it earned in the previous four-year period . This is the largest cash windfall Kim Jong Un has had in his 15 years in power .
• Arms sales: Approximately $14 billion came from arms sales to Russia alone .
• INSS report (March 2026): A South Korean Institute for National Security Strategy report estimated North Korea earns between $7.7 billion and $14.4 billion from munitions sales and troop deployment to Russia .

Strategic Concerns Raised by Analysts

• Modern combat experience for North Korea: Zelenskyy and analysts warn that North Korean troops will gain modern warfare experience and exposure to Russian military technology that could later be used to threaten Asian countries, including South Korea and Japan .
• Manpower cost to Russia: Ukrainian intelligence assesses that the plan is intended to free up Russian combat units for offensive operations. However, analysts question the combat effectiveness and integration of North Korean forces, who face language barriers and unfamiliarity with Russian command structures .
• Escalation risk: The deployment marks Pyongyang's most significant military involvement in a war since the 1950-53 Korean War, and analysts view it as a qualitative escalation of the Russia-North Korea military partnership that could draw in broader regional responses .
• Depletion concern for North Korea: Sending up to 50,000 troops — a substantial portion of North Korea's special operations forces — raises questions about the regime's own military readiness and ability to maintain domestic stability .

The planned surge represents a significant turning point in the Russia-Ukraine war, potentially freeing Russian forces for renewed offensives while providing Kim Jong Un with billions in hard currency and modern combat experience for his troops.