Bitcoin's Brutal June 2024: What Caused $361M in Long Liquidations and How Low Can BTC Go?

The immediate triggers included:

• Technical breakdown: Price broke below the $63,800 support level, triggering automated stop-losses and margin calls on over-leveraged perpetual futures contracts .
• Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows: ETFs experienced two consecutive days of significant net outflows, removing a key source of institutional demand .
• Crowded bullish leverage: Perpetual futures markets were heavily skewed long, making the system acutely vulnerable to a cascade when key price levels broke .
• Macro headwinds: A strong U.S. jobs report had dimmed hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts, and reduced summer liquidity amplified the selloff .

The Broader June 2024 Landscape: A Brutal Month for Bulls

June 2024 was punishing for Bitcoin bulls. After starting the month near $72,000–$73,000, Bitcoin suffered a sustained decline, sliding toward $60,000–$62,000 by late June . Multiple waves of liquidations hit the market throughout the month:

• Early June (flash crash below $68,000): Approximately $400 million in liquidations in under an hour, linked to technical breakdowns and a small Bitcoin sale by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) .
• June 3 (crash to $65,000): Over $1.8 billion in total crypto liquidations, with $1.58 billion in long positions — Bitcoin alone accounted for $774 million . This marked the largest liquidation event since February 6 .
• June 18–19 (break below $64,000): $304–$361 million in liquidations, heavily concentrated in long positions .

The selling pressures were multi-pronged: ETF outflows, ongoing fears over Mt. Gox creditor repayments (scheduled to commence in July for an $8.6 billion BTC pool), reduced summer liquidity, and a hawkish repricing of Federal Reserve rate expectations .

Competing Analyst Views: Consolidation vs. Further Downside

The Bearish Case — Risk of a Drop to $55,000 or Lower

Several analysts warned that a break below the $60,000 support level could trigger another significant leg down. Key warnings included:

• $60,000 as the critical line: Analysts flagged that if $60,000 failed, the next reference point was $54,000–$55,000, near Bitcoin's realized price for long-term holders .
• Rounding top breakdown: One analysis pointed to a confirmed rounding top pattern below $65,000 that projected a decline toward the mid-$40,000 range .
• 15% further downside scenario: Business Insider reported that Bitcoin's support at $60,000 was bolstered by the 200-day moving average near $58,000, and a break below could trigger a 15% decline to $51,500 .
• 2022 bear market pattern comparison: Analyst Ali Martinez warned that Bitcoin's price structure resembled the 2022 bear market, and failure to hold could send it to $55,000 .
• Analyst probability estimates: Some industry sources estimated a 25% probability of Bitcoin retesting $55,000–$57,000 .

The Consolidation / Less-Bearish Case

Not all analysts were purely bearish. Several pointed to reasons the selloff might not become a full-blown bear market:

• Derivatives market resilience: Despite the price drop, Bitcoin whales and market makers did not aggressively reduce positioning, suggesting they did not anticipate a full crash. Some analysts pointed to this resilience as a sign a recovery could follow .
• Compass Point view: Analysts at Compass Point argued that the bear market could end soon, citing current retail sentiment as overly pessimistic and on-chain data showing a classic capitulation phase .
• Bitunix analyst view: One analyst noted that future crypto volatility would primarily track Federal Reserve policy and dollar liquidity, implying the selloff was macro-driven rather than structural .
• Consolidation expectations: Evolve ETFs noted that consolidation after a run back to all-time highs was "to be expected from a technical analysis perspective" . CNBC reported that some investors expected sideways trading through June before the next catalyst .

Key Takeaways

The $361 million liquidation event on June 18–19 was the culmination of a multi-week slide driven by broken technical support, ETF outflows, crowded long leverage, and macro uncertainty . June 2024 saw Bitcoin fall roughly 12–14% from ~$73,000 to ~$60,000–$62,000, with multiple liquidation waves across the month adding up to billions of dollars in forced closures . While bearish analysts warned that a break of $60,000 could send Bitcoin toward $55,000 or even $51,500–$54,000 , other analysts pointed to resilient derivatives markets, overly pessimistic retail sentiment, and the normalcy of consolidation after a run to all-time highs as reasons the selloff might be contained .