How the US-Iran Peace Deal Slashed Fuel Prices Across Africa and Asia

The US-Iran peace agreement has sent Brent crude sliding from approximately $92 per barrel in late May 2025 to roughly $79.56 by June 19, 2025. That roughly 13% drop in less than a month is now rippling through local fuel prices in import-dependent economies across Africa and Asia. Here is how three major markets are being affected — and where the relief still falls short.

Nigeria: Dangote Refinery leads a cascade of cuts

Nigeria's Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association (PETROAN) had been demanding price reductions in line with falling global crude costs. The response came quickly from the Dangote Refinery, which has been cutting its ex-depot (gantry) price in multiple steps.

On June 30, 2025, Dangote reduced its gantry price from ₦880 to ₦840 per litre . By early July 2025, it cut further to ₦820 per litre . These were not isolated moves — they were part of a sustained downward trend through the year. By December 12, 2025, the refinery's gantry price had fallen to ₦699 per litre — a cumulative reduction of ₦200.50 per litre compared to its December 2024 price of ₦899.50 .

Depot prices followed the gantry reductions, with pump prices in Lagos expected in the ₦875–₦905 range back in May 2025 . The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) also cut its petrol price in Abuja to ₦910 per litre in early July 2025, down from ₦945 .

But the cuts, while significant, have not brought prices anywhere near pre-2023 subsidy-removal levels. The removal of the fuel subsidy in mid-2023 structurally raised the price floor, and officials note that even at ₦699, pump prices remain elevated compared to historical norms .

Philippines: DOE links rollback directly to US-Iran détente

In the Philippines, the Department of Energy (DOE) has been unusually explicit about the cause of the relief. In a report on June 19, 2026, the DOE stated that "the stabilization of relations between the United States and Iran is a strong indicator of a potential rollback in fuel prices" .

Industry estimates for a rollback expected on June 23, 2026, show diesel prices declining by P7.50 to P9.50 per litre and gasoline by P3 to P5 per litre, tracking lower global oil prices and a stronger peso . This represents a substantially larger cut than earlier rollbacks in mid-2025, which were in the P1–P2 per litre range .

The earlier round of price cuts in June 2025 had already delivered relief: effective July 1, 2025, gasoline fell by P1.40 per litre, diesel by P1.80, and kerosene by P2.20 .

The DOE has cautioned, however, that the June 2026 rollback depends on actual Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS) and forex movements at the close of the trading window, and that prices remain elevated compared to pre-2022 levels .

Kenya: Diesel gets the biggest break

Kenya's Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) published its monthly price review for the June 15 to July 14, 2025, period, cutting diesel by KSh 10.06 per litre — close to the KSh 10 figure that had been anticipated . The pump price for diesel in Nairobi dropped to approximately KSh 162.91 per litre .

However, the picture was mixed. Super petrol actually rose by about KSh 2.69 per litre in that same review, while kerosene decreased by KSh 2.06 . The diesel cut was the main benefit, reflecting lower global crude import costs, but EPRA noted that the pass-through was incomplete due to the stabilization fund and previous under-recoveries .

The pattern continued into 2026. In the May 2026 EPRA review, diesel was cut again by KSh 10.06, but kerosene rose by KSh 38.60 — a reminder that not all fuels benefit equally from crude oil price declines .

A common theme: prices still above pre-crisis levels

Across all three countries, officials and industry sources have stressed that while the US-Iran peace deal has delivered meaningful relief, local pump prices remain well above the levels seen before the 2022–2023 energy crisis. In Nigeria, the subsidy removal in mid-2023 structurally raised the price floor . In the Philippines, the DOE warned that the peso-dollar rate and lingering supply chain costs cap how much of the global crude drop reaches consumers . In Kenya, EPRA's monthly reviews show that even with diesel cuts, super petrol has risen in some cycles, and prices are still far from the pre-crisis KSh 130–140 range .

The pass-through from global crude to local pump is never one-to-one. Taxes, currency fluctuations, and domestic pricing mechanisms all play a role. But for now, the US-Iran agreement has provided a clear downward push — even if the full journey from peace deal to your fuel tank remains a bumpy one.