80% of Business Leaders Expect Permanent Trade Disruption, DMCC Report Finds

The old rulebook for tariffs is effectively gone. Nearly 20% of global merchandise imports are now subject to tariffs or similar measures, a protectionist surge that is accelerating the fragmentation of the multilateral trading system into rival blocs . Geopolitical shocks compound the uncertainty; the report highlights the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries more than a quarter of seaborne oil and 19% of LNG, sending tanker transits down 90% with far-reaching implications for energy markets and global inflation .

The Three Forces Reshaping Global Commerce

DMCC identifies three dominant forces driving this new trade reality: AI, tariff volatility, and the competition for critical minerals and clean technology . These forces are not operating in isolation—they are interacting to create a trade environment that is simultaneously more digital, more fragmented, and more contested.

The collapse of the rules-based order is not just a policy shift; it is redefining the geography of supply chains. Companies are moving from global efficiency to regional resilience, and new trade corridors are forming between politically aligned nations. "Friendshoring," the movement of operations to allies, is strengthening inter-regional trading hubs, particularly in Asia and North America .

AI: The Single Engine of Goods Trade Growth

Perhaps the most concentrated story in the report is the outsized role AI now plays in merchandise trade. AI-related goods account for only 15% of global trade volume, yet they drove a staggering 43% of all merchandise trade growth in the first half of 2025, growing five times faster than non-AI goods .

Corporate investment in AI hit a record $581 billion in 2025, but the deployment gap is vast—fewer than 15% of businesses describe their AI use as fully integrated . This gap between investment and scaled adoption is what the report calls "one of the most consequential divides in global trade," and it is a divide that is widening .

Critically, the report warns that this growth is dangerously narrow. "Strip out the demand for AI and the picture is considerably weaker" . In other words, the entire engine of current merchandise trade expansion is dependent on sustained AI hardware and infrastructure spending—a concentration risk that leaves the global economy vulnerable to any slowdown in the AI investment cycle.

A brighter counter-narrative is emerging in services trade. Digital exports in cloud, finance, and remote professional services are accelerating, with forecasts predicting 4.8% growth in 2026 . This services-driven growth offers a potential diversification away from the physical goods supply chains that are under so much pressure.

Supply Chains Rebuilt for Resilience

The supply chain from two years ago, the report states bluntly, "no longer exists" . In a survey of businesses, 45% confirmed they have already restructured their supply chains. The once-dominant "China + 1" strategy—diversifying one step beyond China—has evolved into "China + many," as companies spread manufacturing and sourcing across multiple markets to mitigate geopolitical and tariff risks .

The fundamental calculus has changed. Businesses are no longer optimizing purely for cost or efficiency; the priority has shifted to resilience. The report calls resilience "the new competitive advantage" . This shift is driven not just by geopolitics but by the recognition that just-in-time, single-source models are too brittle for a world of frequent shocks.

Energy Transition as Industrial Warfare

One of the report's most provocative framings is its treatment of the energy transition. Clean energy is no longer presented as primarily an environmental objective. Instead, DMCC describes it as "a battle for industrial supremacy" . The competition for critical minerals—lithium, cobalt, rare earths—has become a core geopolitical and trade force . China controls more than 90% of the world's processed rare earths, essential for electric vehicles, AI data centers, and defense applications. Any disruption to that supply chain, the report notes, "will ripple through virtually every industry on Earth" .

The investment gap between fossil fuels and sustainable energy sources widened to $102 billion in 2025, underscoring the scale of the capital reallocation underway . The nations that secure mineral supply chains and dominate clean technology manufacturing will, in DMCC's analysis, define the industrial hierarchy of the coming decades.

The Rise of South-South Trade and Middle Powers

The center of gravity in global trade is shifting decisively. South-South trade—commerce between developing economies—now accounts for approximately 35% of global trade, a share that has overtaken North-North flows and is still rising .

Middle powers are the primary beneficiaries. The report specifically names the UAE, Vietnam, and India as nations that are capturing investment and redirecting supply chains . These countries are positioning themselves as the connective tissue between East and West, North and South, acting as trade and investment hubs in a world of fragmenting blocs . Dubai, DMCC's home base, is a prominent example, but the trend is broader—cities and free zones that can offer stability, connectivity, and neutrality are gaining at the expense of legacy hubs tied to a single bloc.

What the Report Means for Businesses and Policymakers

The Future of Trade 2026 report does not offer a comforting message of recovery. Instead, it presents a world where disruption is structural, AI is the primary growth engine, supply chains have been fundamentally rebuilt, clean energy is an arena of industrial competition, and global trade's gravitational center is shifting toward South-South corridors led by agile middle powers. For businesses, the implication is clear: resilience, diversification, and digital integration are no longer strategic options—they are prerequisites for participation in the new global trading order.