The metric has now crossed back above the 50% breakeven threshold, meaning more than half of all coins are again carrying unrealized gains. But history teaches that a genuine regime change requires more than a simple majority .

Why 57.5% Isn't Enough: The Dual Confirmation Threshold

CryptoQuant contributor TheKrissOnChain and other on-chain analysts rely on a two-condition framework that has marked the end of every Bitcoin bear market since 2012 . Neither condition is currently satisfied.

Condition 1 — Supply in Profit Above 64%

Historical bear market exits occurred at the following supply-in-profit levels:

• April 2012: 69%
• January 2015: 66%
• April 2019: 68%
• January 2023: 64%

At 57.5%, the current reading is 6–7 percentage points below even the lowest historical exit threshold .

Condition 2 — 30-Day LTH-SOPR Average Above 1.0

The 30-day moving average of the Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR) measures whether long-term holders (coins unmoved for 155+ days) are spending at a profit or a loss. A reading above 1.0 means they are realizing profits; below 1.0 means they are spending at a loss .

As of late June 2026, the 30-day LTH-SOPR average sits at 0.88, well below the 1.0 breakeven line . It has printed below 1.0 on 87 of the first 176 days of 2026, in two distinct stretches: February 24 to April 27, and then continuously since June 2 .

Because neither condition is fulfilled, on-chain analysts classify the current recovery as a bear-market rally rather than a bullish regime change .

The Failed Breakout Precedent: A 67% False Signal

This is not the first time in 2026 that Bitcoin's supply-in-profit metric has recovered toward dangerous levels. Earlier this year, from late April to June 1, supply in profit briefly reached an estimated 67%—above even the 64% threshold—while the 30-day LTH-SOPR average held above 1.0 for 35 consecutive days . Yet the breakout failed dramatically, and the metric subsequently collapsed to its 46.2% low .

Analysts now warn that the current 57.5% reading risks becoming a second false breakout, particularly since the LTH-SOPR remains deeply negative this time, unlike during the April–June recovery .

Broader Mixed Signals: Price, Models, and Timing

Beyond the supply-in-profit metric itself, the broader on-chain landscape sends conflicting messages.

• Price action: Bitcoin is trading near $65,859 after recovering from an early-summer dip below $58,000 and a cycle low near $57,000 . It has reclaimed its 200-week simple moving average, but analyst Benjamin Cowen argues the bottom is "months, not weeks" away .
• CryptoQuant 365-day PnL Index: This metric suggests the cycle peak may still lie ahead rather than having already passed, which is consistent with mid-cycle bear phases rather than final capitulation .
• Multiple on-chain models remain in bear territory: Ali Martinez's three-indicator model (aSOPR, Puell Multiple, and Reserve Risk) remains below neutral . The LTH Realized Supply ratio also prints bearish readings .
• Early-stage contra-indicators: Checkonchain's Mean Reversion Index flashed a Q10 bottom signal at the lows (historically a 90% probability bottom signal) . The Advanced Net UTXO Supply Ratio triggered its first "buy" signal since late 2022 . These are worth watching but do not constitute confirmation .

Analyst Outlook: H2 2026 as the Turning Point

Several prominent analysts project that the bear market will conclude in the second half of 2026, a timeline broadly consistent with the on-chain data .

• Anthony Pompliano has projected that the bear market will conclude in the second half of 2026, citing historical halving-cycle patterns and the timing of prior cycle troughs .
• Investing.com's H2 2026 outlook similarly suggests the bear market may stretch through Q3 before forming a durable bottom .
• Benjamin Cowen in his July 2026 Bitcoin Cycle Memo argued the current setup favors a Q4 bottom, citing historical cycle patterns, on-chain data, and macroeconomic conditions .

The structural setup—whale accumulation , capitulation signals , and PnL compression —is typical of a late-stage bear market, but the dual confirmation thresholds remain unfulfilled .

The Bottom Line

Bitcoin's supply-in-profit recovery to 57.5% is a notable improvement from the 46.2% lows of late June, but on-chain analysts are unanimous that it does not confirm a bear market exit. Two specific gates must swing open: sustained supply-in-profit above 64%, and the 30-day LTH-SOPR average durably above 1.0. Until both are met—and the failed 67% breakout earlier this year is a cautionary tale—the prevailing view among top analysts is that the durable bottom forms in Q3–Q4 2026, not before.

The metric has now crossed back above the 50% breakeven threshold, meaning more than half of all coins are again carrying unrealized gains. But history teaches that a genuine regime change requires more than a simple majority .

Why 57.5% Isn't Enough: The Dual Confirmation Threshold

CryptoQuant contributor TheKrissOnChain and other on-chain analysts rely on a two-condition framework that has marked the end of every Bitcoin bear market since 2012 . Neither condition is currently satisfied.

Condition 1 — Supply in Profit Above 64%

Historical bear market exits occurred at the following supply-in-profit levels:

• April 2012: 69%
• January 2015: 66%
• April 2019: 68%
• January 2023: 64%

At 57.5%, the current reading is 6–7 percentage points below even the lowest historical exit threshold .

Condition 2 — 30-Day LTH-SOPR Average Above 1.0

The 30-day moving average of the Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR) measures whether long-term holders (coins unmoved for 155+ days) are spending at a profit or a loss. A reading above 1.0 means they are realizing profits; below 1.0 means they are spending at a loss .

As of late June 2026, the 30-day LTH-SOPR average sits at 0.88, well below the 1.0 breakeven line . It has printed below 1.0 on 87 of the first 176 days of 2026, in two distinct stretches: February 24 to April 27, and then continuously since June 2 .

Because neither condition is fulfilled, on-chain analysts classify the current recovery as a bear-market rally rather than a bullish regime change .

The Failed Breakout Precedent: A 67% False Signal

This is not the first time in 2026 that Bitcoin's supply-in-profit metric has recovered toward dangerous levels. Earlier this year, from late April to June 1, supply in profit briefly reached an estimated 67%—above even the 64% threshold—while the 30-day LTH-SOPR average held above 1.0 for 35 consecutive days . Yet the breakout failed dramatically, and the metric subsequently collapsed to its 46.2% low .

Analysts now warn that the current 57.5% reading risks becoming a second false breakout, particularly since the LTH-SOPR remains deeply negative this time, unlike during the April–June recovery .

Broader Mixed Signals: Price, Models, and Timing

Beyond the supply-in-profit metric itself, the broader on-chain landscape sends conflicting messages.

• Price action: Bitcoin is trading near $65,859 after recovering from an early-summer dip below $58,000 and a cycle low near $57,000 . It has reclaimed its 200-week simple moving average, but analyst Benjamin Cowen argues the bottom is "months, not weeks" away .
• CryptoQuant 365-day PnL Index: This metric suggests the cycle peak may still lie ahead rather than having already passed, which is consistent with mid-cycle bear phases rather than final capitulation .
• Multiple on-chain models remain in bear territory: Ali Martinez's three-indicator model (aSOPR, Puell Multiple, and Reserve Risk) remains below neutral . The LTH Realized Supply ratio also prints bearish readings .
• Early-stage contra-indicators: Checkonchain's Mean Reversion Index flashed a Q10 bottom signal at the lows (historically a 90% probability bottom signal) . The Advanced Net UTXO Supply Ratio triggered its first "buy" signal since late 2022 . These are worth watching but do not constitute confirmation .

Analyst Outlook: H2 2026 as the Turning Point

Several prominent analysts project that the bear market will conclude in the second half of 2026, a timeline broadly consistent with the on-chain data .

• Anthony Pompliano has projected that the bear market will conclude in the second half of 2026, citing historical halving-cycle patterns and the timing of prior cycle troughs .
• Investing.com's H2 2026 outlook similarly suggests the bear market may stretch through Q3 before forming a durable bottom .
• Benjamin Cowen in his July 2026 Bitcoin Cycle Memo argued the current setup favors a Q4 bottom, citing historical cycle patterns, on-chain data, and macroeconomic conditions .

The structural setup—whale accumulation , capitulation signals , and PnL compression —is typical of a late-stage bear market, but the dual confirmation thresholds remain unfulfilled .

The Bottom Line

Bitcoin's supply-in-profit recovery to 57.5% is a notable improvement from the 46.2% lows of late June, but on-chain analysts are unanimous that it does not confirm a bear market exit. Two specific gates must swing open: sustained supply-in-profit above 64%, and the 30-day LTH-SOPR average durably above 1.0. Until both are met—and the failed 67% breakout earlier this year is a cautionary tale—the prevailing view among top analysts is that the durable bottom forms in Q3–Q4 2026, not before.