Bitcoin Supply in Profit Hits 57.5%: Why On-Chain Analysts Say the Bear Market Isn't Over Yet

Bitcoin's on-chain profitability has staged an impressive recovery, but according to the metrics that have marked every previous cycle bottom, the bear market is far from over. Here is exactly what the data shows and why seasoned analysts are telling investors to wait.

The Current Reading: A Sharp Bounce, But Still Below Key Levels

Bitcoin's supply in profit—the share of circulating BTC whose last-moved price is below the current market price—rose to 57.5% as of July 22–24, 2026 . This marks a significant recovery from the 2026 low of 46.2% reached on June 30, when Glassnode reported that more Bitcoin was held at a loss (10.83 million coins) than in profit (9.22 million coins) for the first time in the current drawdown .

The metric has now crossed back above the 50% breakeven threshold, meaning more than half of all coins are again carrying unrealized gains. But history teaches that a genuine regime change requires more than a simple majority .

Why 57.5% Isn't Enough: The Dual Confirmation Threshold

CryptoQuant contributor TheKrissOnChain and other on-chain analysts rely on a two-condition framework that has marked the end of every Bitcoin bear market since 2012 . Neither condition is currently satisfied.

Condition 1 — Supply in Profit Above 64%

Historical bear market exits occurred at the following supply-in-profit levels:

• April 2012: 69%
• January 2015: 66%
• April 2019: 68%
• January 2023: 64%

At 57.5%, the current reading is 6–7 percentage points below even the lowest historical exit threshold .

Condition 2 — 30-Day LTH-SOPR Average Above 1.0

The 30-day moving average of the Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR) measures whether long-term holders (coins unmoved for 155+ days) are spending at a profit or a loss. A reading above 1.0 means they are realizing profits; below 1.0 means they are spending at a loss .

As of late June 2026, the 30-day LTH-SOPR average sits at 0.88, well below the 1.0 breakeven line . It has printed below 1.0 on 87 of the first 176 days of 2026, in two distinct stretches: February 24 to April 27, and then continuously since June 2 .

Because neither condition is fulfilled, on-chain analysts classify the current recovery as a bear-market rally rather than a bullish regime change .

The Failed Breakout Precedent: A 67% False Signal

This is not the first time in 2026 that Bitcoin's supply-in-profit metric has recovered toward dangerous levels. Earlier this year, from late April to June 1, supply in profit briefly reached an estimated 67%—above even the 64% threshold—while the 30-day LTH-SOPR average held above 1.0 for 35 consecutive days . Yet the breakout failed dramatically, and the metric subsequently collapsed to its 46.2% low .

Analysts now warn that the current 57.5% reading risks becoming a second false breakout, particularly since the LTH-SOPR remains deeply negative this time, unlike during the April–June recovery .

Broader Mixed Signals: Price, Models, and Timing

Beyond the supply-in-profit metric itself, the broader on-chain landscape sends conflicting messages.

• Price action: Bitcoin is trading near $65,859 after recovering from an early-summer dip below $58,000 and a cycle low near $57,000 . It has reclaimed its 200-week simple moving average, but analyst Benjamin Cowen argues the bottom is "months, not weeks" away .
• CryptoQuant 365-day PnL Index: This metric suggests the cycle peak may still lie ahead rather than having already passed, which is consistent with mid-cycle bear phases rather than final capitulation .
• Multiple on-chain models remain in bear territory: Ali Martinez's three-indicator model (aSOPR, Puell Multiple, and Reserve Risk) remains below neutral . The LTH Realized Supply ratio also prints bearish readings .
• Early-stage contra-indicators: Checkonchain's Mean Reversion Index flashed a Q10 bottom signal at the lows (historically a 90% probability bottom signal) . The Advanced Net UTXO Supply Ratio triggered its first "buy" signal since late 2022 . These are worth watching but do not constitute confirmation .

Analyst Outlook: H2 2026 as the Turning Point

Several prominent analysts project that the bear market will conclude in the second half of 2026, a timeline broadly consistent with the on-chain data .

• Anthony Pompliano has projected that the bear market will conclude in the second half of 2026, citing historical halving-cycle patterns and the timing of prior cycle troughs .
• Investing.com's H2 2026 outlook similarly suggests the bear market may stretch through Q3 before forming a durable bottom .
• Benjamin Cowen in his July 2026 Bitcoin Cycle Memo argued the current setup favors a Q4 bottom, citing historical cycle patterns, on-chain data, and macroeconomic conditions .

The structural setup—whale accumulation , capitulation signals , and PnL compression —is typical of a late-stage bear market, but the dual confirmation thresholds remain unfulfilled .

The Bottom Line

Bitcoin's supply-in-profit recovery to 57.5% is a notable improvement from the 46.2% lows of late June, but on-chain analysts are unanimous that it does not confirm a bear market exit. Two specific gates must swing open: sustained supply-in-profit above 64%, and the 30-day LTH-SOPR average durably above 1.0. Until both are met—and the failed 67% breakout earlier this year is a cautionary tale—the prevailing view among top analysts is that the durable bottom forms in Q3–Q4 2026, not before.