Grayscale vs. Jiang Zhuoer: Two Divergent Bitcoin Bottom Forecasts for 2026

Pandl's Macroeconomic Reasoning: Why Bitcoin May Have 'Graduated'

Pandl frames the current downturn through two competing lenses :

• Traditional four-year halving cycle — This model, which has historically predicted Bitcoin cycle lows roughly 12–18 months after each halving, would point to a bear-market bottom around September to October 2026 .
• Macroeconomic lens (Pandl's preferred view) — Pandl argues Bitcoin has "grown up" as an asset and is now primarily driven by macroeconomic forces — especially real interest rates, Federal Reserve policy, and economic growth — rather than the supply-shock mechanics of the halving .

His core thesis is simple: Bitcoin is a macro asset that trades alongside currencies, commodities, and equities . The key variable is whether the Fed hikes rates further or holds steady. Pandl has stated explicitly that if the Fed does not raise rates, Bitcoin may have already bottomed, breaking the traditional four-year cycle framework . He points to the July 28–29 FOMC meeting as the next real catalyst for Bitcoin's direction .

Pandl also notes the current bear market is driven by macroeconomic conditions — specifically elevated inflation (4.1% in June) and oil price spikes from geopolitical conflict — not by exchange collapses or crypto-native crises that marked previous bear cycles . This time is different, he argues, because Bitcoin ETFs, a pro-crypto political shift in the U.S., and global central bank easing have fundamentally changed the asset's pricing dynamics .

Grayscale's Price Ranges and the Covered-Call Strategy

• Bottom range: Grayscale has indicated Bitcoin established a bottom in the $65,000–$70,000 range, noting a recovery of over 20% from a low near $63,000 .
• Covered-call strategy: On July 15, 2026, Pandl outlined a Bitcoin covered-call strategy designed for a range-bound sideways market . Using an assumed BTC spot price of $65,000 and 40% implied volatility, Grayscale estimated the strategy could generate an annualized return of approximately 22% . The strategy remains profitable as long as BTC stays above a breakeven of roughly $58,500 . It outperforms holding spot BTC until the price reaches approximately $72,500 at expiration . Grayscale offers the Grayscale Bitcoin Covered Call ETF (BTCC) as a vehicle for this approach .

Jiang Zhuoer's Bearish Cycle-Based Forecast

Jiang Zhuoer bases his forecast on historical four-year cycle patterns and a technical signal from Strategy's (formerly MicroStrategy) market-to-net-asset-value (mNAV) ratio . At the time of his prediction, mNAV had fallen to 0.72, approaching the 0.7 level seen at the May 2022 cycle low .

Jiang argues that an mNAV bottom usually precedes Bitcoin's price bottom by about six months. Combined with the four-year cycle model — which he likens to a bouncing ball losing height — his framework points to a low around October 31, 2026, near $44,016 . He revised the time frame to October–December 2026, with a price range of $42,000–$44,000 . His $42,000–$44,000 target is notably close to Arthur Hayes' recent $40,000 bottom call .

Side-by-Side Comparison

The Core Tension: Has Bitcoin Outgrown Its Cycle?

The fundamental disagreement comes down to whether Bitcoin has "graduated" from its cycle-based adolescence. Pandl argues that institutional adoption via Bitcoin ETFs, a pro-crypto U.S. political shift, and global central bank easing have fundamentally changed Bitcoin's pricing dynamics, making it a mature macro asset that responds to the Fed, not the miner's calendar . Jiang Zhuoer's model assumes the same cycle mechanics that governed past bear markets still apply, and that the macroeconomic "noise" is temporary within a longer structural downtrend that has not yet reached its historical low .

Both views come with caveats. Pandl acknowledges that the traditional cycle framework still "implies a longer bear market" and leaves room for further downside if the Fed surprises with a hike . Jiang himself notes that his model has historically performed better on timing than on exact price . The next major catalysts — the FOMC decision on July 28–29 and the progress of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate — could tip the scales one way or the other .