Baltic Alarm vs. Military Reality: What Latvia and Lithuania Are Actually Warning About Russia

What Latvia Is Actually Doing

Latvia has already hardened security around specific critical infrastructure sites — the hydroelectric dam on the Daugava River upstream of Riga and the strategic underground gas storage facility at Inčukalns — acting on intelligence of potential Russian sabotage and hybrid attacks . Kulbergs has asked NATO for additional air defense systems, more allied troops, and fast-track integration of a Latvian-Ukrainian anti-drone system .

The Consistent Message from Lithuania's Defence Establishment

The following statements from Lithuanian officials all point to the same conclusion:

• Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas (July 15): "We are not observing a buildup of Russian troops near our border. There is currently no conventional threat."
• Chief of Defence General Raimundas Vaikšnoras (July 20): "There is currently no visible threat of conventional Russian military aggression against Lithuania or the other Baltic states."
• Lithuania's Ministry of Defence (June 29): "There are currently no signs that Russia is preparing a large-scale military attack on the Baltic states."
• Lithuania's Ambassador to NATO Darius Jauniškis (July 2): "We probably should not expect conventional threats… I would first think about elements of hybrid warfare."
• Senior National Security Adviser Deivydas Matulenis (July 21): Officially denied rumors of an imminent Russian military invasion, putting the probability of a conventional attack at "zero" .

The table below summarizes the consistent position across all Baltic officials:

Why the Two Pictures Fit Together

The warnings and the absence-of-buildup assessment are not contradictory. Baltic leaders are sounding the alarm not about a conventional land war, but about a gray-zone hybrid campaign — sabotage, cyber operations, drone incursions, and instrumentalized migration — designed to test NATO's Article 5 resolve without triggering a full-scale military response . As Lithuania's ambassador to NATO put it, hybrid warfare elements are "probably the easiest to carry out" .

This distinction matters for preparedness. The Baltic states are already taking concrete steps: hardening energy infrastructure, requesting more air defense from NATO, and integrating anti-drone systems. The threat is real, but it is not the one that makes the most headlines.