5 On-Chain Signals Suggesting Bitcoin's Bear Market May Be Nearing Its Final Stage

Bitcoin has traded below the STH cost basis for over nine consecutive months, with that level currently around $70,700 acting as persistent overhead resistance . In May 2026, BTC climbed to around $82,000 to test this region before quickly pulling back . A convincing reclaim of this level is widely seen as the necessary confirmation before any sustained recovery can begin .

What it means: Short-term holders (defined as those holding coins for less than 155 days) are, on average, underwater. For the crossover to be predictive, it needs to reverse — meaning STH cost basis needs to cross back above LTH cost basis, historically a signal of new demand entering the market.

2. Cooling Realized Losses from 2024–2025 Buyers (Glassnode)

Glassnode analyst cryptovizart reported that realized losses among holders who bought in 2024–2025 — often referred to as "cycle peak buyers" — have turned downward . The 30-day sum of realized losses exceeded $75 million in early July 2026 before beginning to decline .

In past cycles, this pattern has preceded the start of an upward trend. According to Glassnode, "When the metric cooled, it often turned out to be one of the earliest signals of the end of sell-offs" . The implication is that the heaviest selling pressure from those who accumulated near the $107,000 peak in 2025 may be exhausting .

What it means: The sellers who bought at the top are finally running out of steam. Their capitulation is a necessary condition for a bottom, but it is not sufficient on its own — it must be accompanied by new demand.

3. Over 50% of Bitcoin's Circulating Supply Held at a Loss (K33 Research)

K33 Research flagged that more than 50% of Bitcoin's circulating supply is held at an unrealized loss . This threshold was crossed on June 5, 2026, marking the first time since late 2022 that more than half of all coins were underwater .

K33's historical data shows that in prior cycles, bear-market bottoms formed between 13 and 101 days after this 50% mark was crossed . As of mid-July 2026, 42 days had already elapsed, placing the current bear market inside the typical window for a cycle bottom . K33 noted that the 50% mark has appeared near every major Bitcoin bear-market bottom — in 2011, 2018, and 2022 . The firm's H1 2026 Round-Up report states: "We now believe the worst of the drawdown is likely behind us" .

Caveat: CryptoQuant data put supply in loss at 46% as of July 17, slightly below the 50% threshold, suggesting some coins may have moved back into profit during the recent bounce . The divergence between data providers is worth monitoring.

4. Strategy's Largest-Ever Sale Absorbed Without a Breakdown

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) sold 3,588 BTC for approximately $216 million between June 29 and July 5, 2026 — its largest single Bitcoin liquidation ever . The sale, executed in two tranches at average prices of $59,256 and $60,773, was used to fund dividend payments on its Digital Credit securities .

Despite selling into a bear market at a loss (Strategy's average cost basis is approximately $75,476), Bitcoin held above $60,000 throughout, and the market absorbed the supply without a breakdown . Fortune reported that Bitcoin fell nearly 1% in the first hour after the announcement, then climbed back to just above $62,000 .

This resilience — the largest corporate Bitcoin holder selling a record tranche without triggering a sell-off — is a sign of improving market structure and buy-side support .

What it means: The market is demonstrating an ability to absorb large, well-known sell orders without panic. This is a characteristic often observed in late-stage bear markets when weak hands have already been flushed out.

5. $65,000 Resistance Tested Amid Resumed ETF Inflows

Multiple analysts note that Bitcoin has tested the $65,000 resistance level while ETF inflows have shown signs of resuming . The Gate blog analysis specifically links revived ETF flows to the broader "final stage" bull case, suggesting that institutional demand may be returning .

However, Glassnode has cautioned that the rally has been driven by "thin liquidity rather than strong buying conviction" . The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) remains below 1.0, indicating that most sellers are still transacting at a loss . From May to July 2026, SOPR was below 1.0 for 37 out of 61 days, reflecting persistent selling pressure .

What it means: ETF inflows are a positive demand-side signal, but they need to be sustained and accompanied by higher conviction buying to confirm a structural recovery.

The Key Level to Watch: $69,000–$70,700

The STH cost basis, currently ranging between $69,000 and $70,700 depending on the data source, is the single most important resistance level for Bitcoin . A weekly close above this level — especially if accompanied by a reversal of the STH/LTH cost-basis crossover — would be a strong technical confirmation that the bear market is ending .

Until then, Glassnode's characterization of the rally as "running on thin ice" is worth heeding . The convergence of signals is promising, but it is not yet a definitive all-clear.

Summary of the Convergence

These signals, taken together, suggest that Bitcoin's nine-month bear market may be approaching its final stage. The caveat: confirmation requires a convincing reclaim of the $69,000–$70,700 STH cost basis, sustained ETF inflows, and a return of SOPR above 1.0. Until then, the pattern remains promising but unconfirmed.