Bitcoin Options Turn Bullish, but On-Chain Data Says the Bear Market Isn't Over

What it means for sentiment. Glassnode describes this combination — a falling put/call ratio alongside compressing implied volatility — as a positive options sentiment shift . The fear premium built up during June's sharp selloff has eased, and traders are positioning for upside rather than hedging downside risk . However, Glassnode also notes that volatility at 40 is still above the lows seen in May, so some caution persists .

The July 17 $1.2 Billion Options Expiry: A Nonevent

Basic facts. On July 17, about 19,000 Bitcoin options contracts representing ~$1.2 billion in notional value expired on Deribit at 8:00 AM UTC, with a max pain level of $63,000 and a put/call ratio of 0.93 . Combined with Ethereum, roughly $1.43 billion in total crypto options expired that day .

How it passed off. The expiry "didn't upend markets" — Bitcoin remained range-bound, trading around $63,000–$64,000 near the max pain level . The spot price was close enough to $63,000 that most out-of-the-money options expired worthless, maximizing losses for option buyers and minimizing payouts for sellers (the standard max pain dynamic) . The expiry reinforced existing ranges rather than triggering a breakout or breakdown .

On-Chain Cautionary Notes Alongside the Bullish Options Signal

While the options market has turned call-heavy, on-chain data from Glassnode and other analysts flags several structural cautions:

Bitcoin trades well below the True Market Mean (~$76,600). Bitcoin has been trading below the Realized/True Market Mean of approximately $76,600 since early February 2026 — about five consecutive months . This places Bitcoin firmly in "deep value" territory historically associated with late-stage bear market conditions . Glassnode defines deep value as a zone where the market price sits significantly below the aggregate cost basis of all coins, a condition that has historically preceded extended accumulation periods .

Below the Short-Term Holder cost basis (~$72,200). The average acquisition price for short-term holders (coins moved within the last ~155 days) sits at roughly $72,200 . Bitcoin remains well below this level, meaning the average recent buyer is underwater. Historically, Bitcoin bull markets see price trend above the STH realized price, while bear markets see price trend below it . A sustained reclaim of this level would be needed to signal a trend shift . Some sources cite a slightly lower figure of $70,700 depending on methodology .

Thin liquidity driving the recovery. The bounce from ~$58,300 toward $64,000 has occurred on relatively low liquidity, making the move more fragile . Low-volume recoveries can reverse sharply if any catalyst shifts sentiment .

$69,000 as the next major overhead resistance. The $69,000 level is flagged as the next key resistance zone, coinciding with speculators' cost basis and the 2021 all-time high — a level where overhead supply and profit-taking pressure could intensify .

The bottom line. The options market is flashing a bullish tilt — call dominance and falling implied volatility suggest traders are pricing in less fear and more upside conviction . But the on-chain picture is far more subdued: Bitcoin remains in a multi-month "deep value" zone below both the STH cost basis and True Market Mean, with a fragile, low-liquidity recovery approaching heavy resistance near $69,000–$72,000 . Analysts are treating the options shift as a positive near-term sentiment signal, not yet as confirmation of a broader trend reversal .