Why Abrdn’s Robert Minter Calls Gold’s Pullback to $4,000 a Buying Opportunity

Central Bank Accumulation: The 'Structural Bid'

The most powerful argument in Minter’s toolkit is central bank buying, which he calls the "structural bid" under the gold market. Key data points from his analysis:

• He expects gold price declines to trigger above-average central bank purchases, exactly as occurred in March and April 2026 .
• Globally, the average country now holds 24% of its foreign exchange reserves in gold . Central banks, especially in emerging markets, are accelerating de-dollarization efforts—replacing dollar reserves with bullion .
• Over the last two years, central banks have bought roughly 2,100 tonnes of gold, nearly three times the roughly 750 tonnes that ETF investors sold during the same period . This persistent official-sector demand, Minter argues, creates a price floor beneath the market.

Minter notes that the People’s Bank of China took advantage of the price decline to acquire an additional 15 tonnes of gold for its stockpile—a move he described as precisely the kind of dip-buying behavior that supports his thesis .

ETF Flows: The Turning Point Minter Is Watching

Minter acknowledges that gold ETF investors have been net sellers, basing their decisions on rising real interest rates . However, he highlights that ETF outflows have slowed to a trickle in recent weeks . His view is that even a slowdown in selling can meaningfully shift the supply-demand balance .

The broader market is watching this closely. Morgan Stanley has said that gold will struggle to reach $5,200/oz without strong ETF inflows , and a $1.1 billion inflow in late June snapped four straight weeks of redemptions . Minter's position is that once investors refocus on structural factors, ETF buying will resume .

Supply Constraints: A Market That Can't Grow Its Way Out

Minter emphasizes that gold mine supply is structurally constrained in ways that support higher prices long-term:

• Global mine output grew only about 1% in 2025, and major miners including Newmont, Barrick, and Agnico Eagle are guiding for production declines in 2026 .
• Central banks are now absorbing roughly 25% of annual mine output, a historically high proportion .
• The broader supply backdrop is one of stagnant growth—roughly 0.8% annual increase—with a structural gap opening as miners deplete reserves faster than they can replace them .

This supply-demand imbalance—rising structural demand from central banks meeting flat-to-declining mine supply—underpins Minter’s bullish conviction even as prices correct.

Federal Reserve Rhetoric: Overhyped, Overpriced

Minter argues that the market has become overly fixated on hawkish Fed rhetoric while underestimating the supportive structural forces at work . His reasoning:

• New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has struck a hawkish tone, eliminating forward guidance and emphasizing price stability—rhetoric that weighed on gold . But Minter says many institutional clients he speaks with do not expect actual rate hikes; they view Warsh’s language as positioning rather than a binding policy path .
• When Warsh struck a somewhat less hawkish tone in late June, gold rebounded sharply, reinforcing Minter’s view that the selloff was sentiment-driven .
• Minter’s longer view: Regardless of near-term Fed commentary, the trajectory of global central bank reserve diversification, de-dollarization, and supply constraints will dominate over the cycle .

The Bottom Line

Minter sees gold near $4,000 as offering a favorable entry point because the pullback is technical and sentiment-driven, central banks are poised to buy more aggressively on dips, mine supply is barely growing, and the market is overreacting to hawkish Fed rhetoric that may not translate into actual rate hikes . He is not alone in this view: Goldman Sachs continues to forecast gold reaching $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, citing the same structural drivers of sovereign reserve diversification and central bank demand .